WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:42 pm

Climate is a wild beast, and we are prodding it with a stick.
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:12 pm

Via GCC, some more info:
New method details contributions of climate change & natural variability to rapid Arctic ice loss
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/03 ... 4-ice.html
A new study finds that a substantial chunk of summer sea ice loss in recent decades was due to natural variability in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean. The study, from the University of Washington, the University of California Santa Barbara and federal scientists, is published in Nature Climate Change.
  • Anthropogenic forcing is still dominant — it’s still the key player. But we found that natural variability has helped to accelerate this melting, especially over the past 20 years.

    —first author Qinghua Ding
The paper builds on previous work by Ding and other UW scientists that found changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean have in recent decades created a “hot spot” over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic that has boosted warming in that region.

The hot spot is a large region of higher pressure where air is squeezed together so it becomes warmer and can hold more moisture, both of which bring more heat to the sea ice below. The new paper focuses specifically on what this atmospheric circulation means for Arctic sea ice in September, when the ocean reaches its maximum area of open water. . . .

Ding designed a new sea ice model experiment that combines forcing due to climate change with observed weather in recent decades. The model shows that a shift in wind patterns is responsible for about 60% of sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean since 1979. Some of this shift is related to climate change, but the study finds that 30-50% of the observed sea ice loss since 1979 is due to natural variations in this large-scale atmospheric pattern.
  • What we’ve found is that a good fraction of the decrease in September sea ice melt in the past several decades is most likely natural variability. That’s not really a surprise. The method is really innovative, and it nails down how much of the observed sea ice trend we’ve seen in recent decades in the Arctic is due to natural variability and how much is due to greenhouse gases.

    —co-author David Battisti
. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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RegGuheert
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:38 am

Back in 2009, the talking point was that multiyear ice had all but disappeared:
Reuters wrote:But David Barber, Canada's Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.

"We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere," he said in a presentation in Parliament.
Back then, too, it was thought that somehow the theory of the "magical molecule" that predicts nothing but explains everything was the explanation:
Reuters wrote:Scientists link higher Arctic temperatures and melting sea ice to the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming.
But the reality is that CO2 concentrations have steadily increased, but multiyear ice in the Arctic is growing very rapidly. In fact, multi-year sea ice in the Arctic has more than doubled since 2008:

Image

Image

Anyone care to show me a prediction back in 2008 that multi-year Arctic sea ice would more than double by now?

Meanwhile, the press is incredibly quiet about the surface-mass balance on Greenland. Here's why:

Image

Again, does anyone care to show me the prediction that this would be occurring in 2017?

Meanwhile, many people have died across Europe this winter due to the extremely cold temperatures there.

There's a very good reason why the snow is piling up on Greenland and the winters in New England and across Europe have been getting so brutal in recent years (again, contrary to predictions): the heat content of the adjacent parts of the North Atlantic has been dropping precipitously since 2006:

Image

Do yourselves a favor and spend an hour to educate yourselves about just how far off the mark this religious belief in the magical powers of CO2 is:

RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:50 am

RegGuheert wrote:But the reality is that CO2 concentrations have steadily increased, but multiyear ice in the Arctic is growing very rapidly.
Yes, I hear that dead cats bounce as well. Look at a longer time:

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a ... 080p30.mp4
WetEV
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RegGuheert
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:10 am

WetEV wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:But the reality is that CO2 concentrations have steadily increased, but multiyear ice in the Arctic is growing very rapidly.
Yes, I hear that dead cats bounce as well. Look at a longer time:

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a ... 080p30.mp4
O.K. I'll look farther back. Let's go back to November 1922:
Monthly Weather Review wrote:The arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temperatures in that part of the Earth's surface.
Monthly Weather Review wrote:...last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
There's more. You should read it and learn about the recorded history of the arctic.

What is happening today is only abnormal to those who are ignorant of the past.
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:07 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
Monthly Weather Review wrote:...last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
There's more. You should read it and learn about the recorded history of the arctic.

What is happening today is only abnormal to those who are ignorant of the past.
Yes, the 1920's were warmer than the earlier years. Story doesn't end in the 1920's.

Image
WetEV
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RegGuheert
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:53 am

WetEV wrote:Yes, the 1920's were warmer than the earlier years. Story doesn't end in the 1920's.
I find it interesting that you provide a plot without quoting a source. More interesting is that you have lowered the temperature of the older temperature data by 2 degrees C and raised the temperature of the more-recent temperature data by 1 degrees C. I'm sure you must think this is fully justified (altitude, perhaps?) but you have given no justification whatsoever for this change.

In any case, you seem to have missed the point. In 1922, the historical record noted that "... last winter the ocean did not freeze over last even on the north coast of Spitzbergen." But this is what it looks like this winter:

Image

The obvious point is that, in spite of your attempts to scare people into thinking the arctic is experiencing some severe meltdown, there is MORE ICE on the north coast of Spitzbergen NOW than there was at this time in 1922, 95 years ago.

In addition, I see that the average wintertime temperature at Spitzbergen was 19 degrees warmer in 1954 than in 1910:
The Queensland Times on Tuesday, March 4, 1954 wrote:In Spitzbergen the average winter temperature has risen 19 deg. since 1910, and the harbour is now open 200 days a year.
So the increase in wintertime temperatures in the arctic in 1954 versus 1910 was higher than the rise we see today in wintertime over the historical average (10C versus 8C):

Image

Note also that the summertime temperatures have not changed AT ALL. The bottom line is that the cycle that occurs in the Arctic is repeating itself. To claim that what happened at the beginning of the 20th century was fully natural, but that when the exact same thing happens today it is caused by man is, well, complete nonsense.

We also know that some data manipulators in our government have been busily cooling the past and warming the present to try to fool people who do not check their facts into thinking it is warmer today in the Arctic than it was back then. It's not:

Image

Here is a plot of the magnitude of the changes that were made by our government between the blue and the orange curves above:

Image

Sorry, but changing the temperature DATA for a single station like that cannot be reasonably justified.

The same thing is happening in Reykjavik:

Image

It is truly sickening that the scientific data is being distorted to support this ridiculous lie. It's completely on you if you believe this nonsense.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:44 am

RegGuheert wrote:It is truly sickening that the scientific data is being distorted to support this ridiculous lie. It's completely on you if you believe this nonsense.
Amusing.

What I am to believe, you or my own lying eyes?

The ice is melting.

Ice doesn't care.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:31 am

WetEV wrote:What I am to believe, you or my own lying eyes?.
You don't have to believe me. Only you can decide if you will believe your eyes.

Here it is again: At this time of year in 1922, the north coast of Spitzbergen was ice free all winter:
Monthly Weather Review in November, 1922 wrote:...last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
And here is the plot of sea ice in the artic for March 14 for EVERY year from 2008 until 2017:

Image

As everyone but you canplainly see, only in 2012 and 2016 was any part of the north coast of Svalbard NOT covered by sea ice on March 14. In neither year was the entire north coast free of sea ice all winter long like it was in 95 years ago in 1922. This year the entire northern half of Svalbard is COMPLETELY encased in sea ice.

In addition, the area of multi-year sea ice in the arctic has been rapidly increasing over the past decade:

Image

Simply put, there is NOTHING abnormal about what is happening with sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in this century. The melt is very similar to what occurred early in the 20th century, but perhaps not as severe as what happened back then.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:48 am

RegGuheert wrote:Simply put, there is NOTHING abnormal about what is happening with sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in this century. The melt is very similar to what occurred early in the 20th century, but perhaps not as severe as what happened back then.
I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?
WetEV
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