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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:06 pm
by RegGuheert
WetEV wrote:I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?
Why should I do that? Do you think the North Pole will be blue anytime soon? Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong. (Not that there would be ANYTHING bad about a blue North Pole.) You should look again at the GIF above. This time look carefully. Unlike in March 2016 and some earlier years, the North Pole is now completely socked in with multi-year ice for hundreds of miles in ALL directions. The prospects of blue water at the North Pole is getting more remote, NOT more likely.

Would you like to go on record and tell us when YOU think the North Pole will be blue?

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:44 pm
by WetEV
RegGuheert wrote:a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong.
What do you mean by "virtually certain"?

So would that be 1:10,000?

More? Less?

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:22 pm
by RegGuheert
My prediction:
RegGuheert wrote:Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong.
My request for your prediction:
RegGuheert wrote:Would you like to go on record and tell us when YOU think the North Pole will be blue?
Your response:
WetEV wrote:What do you mean by "virtually certain"?

So would that be 1:10,000?

More? Less?
Priceless.

Given your utter lack of knowledge of the processes which affect sea ice, I don't blame you for shying away from putting your name behind a prediction.

Basically, you are here to tell everyone how bad things are gonna get, but you really are just continually parroting the nonsense with no understanding of what is going on.

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:30 pm
by WetEV
RegGuheert wrote:My prediction:
RegGuheert wrote:Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong.
So would that be 1:10,000?

More? Less?

Do tell.

I want to know what "virtually certain" means.

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:39 pm
by RegGuheert
It's clear, WetEV: You don't even believe your own nonsense. If you did, you could commit to a prediction. But you won't.

Sad.

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:58 pm
by WetEV
RegGuheert wrote:It's clear, WetEV: You don't even believe your own nonsense. If you did, you could commit to a prediction. But you won't.

Sad.
So please help educate me.

What odds are "virtually certain"?

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:43 pm
by WetEV
RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?
Why should I do that? Do you think the North Pole will be blue anytime soon?
Consider this:

Image

Then ask questions.

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:32 am
by RegGuheert
Fortunately, the knowledge of science precludes one from coming to the nonsensical conclusions which would result from interpreting data from one-half of a cycle to be a linear trend. Instead, it is recognized to simply be a part of a cycle which repeats itself.

As I have clearly shown, the conditions in the arctic today are very close to those experienced in the first half of the 21st century. But note that after the 1950s, the trend reversed itself, just as it will do this time. How do we know this? We know it because we have studied what happens when the ice melts in the Arctic Sea. Simply put, as the fresh water volume gets beyond a certain tipping point, it flows out into the Atlantic Ocean and covers the Gulf Stream with cold, fresh water. Note that this is different than shutting down the gulf stream. In fact it is still there and flowing, but it is the temperature of the SURFACE of the global oceans which control the temperature of our atmosphere. The cold water now flowing from the Arctic is above the warmer waters of the gulf stream. The result is colder surface temperatures in the Atlantic, as is seen in the plot I provided yesterday. This cold surface water in the far North Atlantic is the primary reason for the extreme cold which has been experienced across much of eastern Europe and most of Russia this winter. Expect more of this going forward.

Those making linear projections from very limited observational periods clearly are not aware of the science involved in our planet's climate.

The more important trend that we face is that our nearest star is in the process of going to sleep. This portends extremely cold climate in the not-so-distant future. While warming is good for civilization, cold is extremely dangerous. If we are not prepared for the cold when it comes, the death toll will be immense.

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:58 am
by WetEV
RegGuheert wrote:Fortunately, the knowledge of science precludes one from coming to the nonsensical conclusions which would result from interpreting data from one-half of a cycle to be a linear trend. Instead, it is recognized to simply be a part of a cycle which repeats itself.

As I have clearly shown, the conditions in the arctic today are very close to those experienced in the first half of the 21st century. But note that after the 1950s, the trend reversed itself, just as it will do this time. How do we know this? We know it because we have studied what happens when the ice melts in the Arctic Sea. Simply put, as the fresh water volume gets beyond a certain tipping point, it flows out into the Atlantic Ocean and covers the Gulf Stream with cold, fresh water. Note that this is different than shutting down the gulf stream. In fact it is still there and flowing, but it is the temperature of the SURFACE of the global oceans which control the temperature of our atmosphere. The cold water now flowing from the Arctic is above the warmer waters of the gulf stream. The result is colder surface temperatures in the Atlantic, as is seen in the plot I provided yesterday. This cold surface water in the far North Atlantic is the primary reason for the extreme cold which has been experienced across much of eastern Europe and most of Russia this winter. Expect more of this going forward.

Those making linear projections from very limited observational periods clearly are not aware of the science involved in our planet's climate.

The more important trend that we face is that our nearest star is in the process of going to sleep. This portends extremely cold climate in the not-so-distant future. While warming is good for civilization, cold is extremely dangerous. If we are not prepared for the cold when it comes, the death toll will be immense.
So did a blue water North Pole happened in the first half of the 21st century?

How are you going to explain a blue water North Pole with cycles?

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:38 am
by RegGuheert
WetEV wrote:So did a blue water North Pole happened in the first half of the 21st century?
Do you mean in the 20th century? If so, I don't know. Do you? One thing is for sure: it cannot be proven that blue water over the North Pole did NOT occur in the 20th century since there was not continuous monitoring.

What I DO know is that there has never been a blue water North Pole in the 21st century.
WetEV wrote:How are you going to explain a blue water North Pole with cycles?
What is this ridiculous "blue North Pole goose chase" that you are on? It seems you uncritically accept any proclamation of climate doom which comes your way. I don't need to explain it since it didn't happen. It's just another wild-eye prognostication from those who have yet to make an accurate prediction.

In fact, this prediction is following the pattern of so many others: IMMEDIATELY following the prediction, the conditions go in the opposite direction of the prediction. Now, just six month later we see that multiyear ice has encapsulated the North Pole in all directions. I'm not talking about the difference between the peak melt and the peak freeze but the difference between March 2017 and previous Marches. In 2016, the conditions were completely different than they are today.

Are you predicting that there will be blue water over the North Pole someday? If so, when?