StrangerTides
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next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:51 am

So I'd like to be an "early adopter," and I hope I can convert my reservation to an order in December as planned. But in case it doesn't work out financially, or if my old vehicle dies before December and I have to buy something else, or whatever, I'm curious if anyone has any educated guesses on the next generation Leaf. In particular:

- By next gen, I really mean one with a significant battery range increase - say 200 miles instead of 100. Any guesses as to when this might be available?

- Based on the above guess, will the $7500 tax credit still be available by that time, or will that law have gone un-renewed (or will 200K Leafs have been sold) by that time?

- Will the price be higher or lower than what we see right now for the first gen?

- What will the waiting line be like? Months? Or will we be able to buy one off the lot by then?

Any wild speculations (or inside info ;) ) welcome!
Chris B

indyflick
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:01 am

Nissan has already provided some of the data. The LEAF is basically a platform for five derivative vehicles presently in development. They are announcing a van soon. There's also a crossover SUV and a sedan. There's speculation of a 2 seat roadster to compete with Tesla, at 1/3 the price.

smkettner
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:30 am

I would be looking for an optional larger battery. Although in a year that may prove unnecessary.
Leather interior would also be on my wish list.
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Gonewild
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:06 am

I don't think the $7,500 Gov credit will be around long for a few reasons.

The credit is for the first 200,000 cars only that is per manufacture or combined? Nissan is planning 50,000 next year and 2012 who know maybe 150,000?

Congress is changing guard this Nov who know can a cut in this program be on the table?

Waiting for a better battery could be 5 years away. So to answer your question NO the credit will not be around for you to get a better battery. BUT without the credit in 5 years who knows maybe the cost will be lower.
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evnow
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:22 am

Gonewild wrote:I don't think the $7,500 Gov credit will be around long for a few reasons.

The credit is for the first 200,000 cars only that is per manufacture or combined? Nissan is planning 50,000 next year and 2012 who know maybe 150,000?

Congress is changing guard this Nov who know can a cut in this program be on the table?
It is 200K per manufacturer. Even if the house flips, senate & Presidency will still be controlled by the same people. Besides I don't think the subsidy to alt fuel vehicles is that controversial in the congress as some people think it is. It was passed originally when Bush was president. The new EV bill passed the committee nearly unanimously (even though it didn't make it to the energy bill). Since Nissan, Toyota etc have plants in southern states, you will get senators of those state supporting the tax credits in anycase. Just look at the subsidy offerred in TN and announced by Lamar Alexander (R).
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SilverLeaf
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:46 pm

As part of a new stimulus program, Arizona State University is working on a new battery technology that is forecast to go 1,000 miles per charge (YES, I said ONE THOUSAND MILES per charge). I do not have any information on the target date for such technology, but it is being developed now. I do not forsee this available in 5 years, but hopefully when I replace my LEAF battery in 8-10 years. One can only hope for such developments.
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evnow
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:54 pm

SilverLeaf wrote:As part of a new stimulus program, Arizona State University is working on a new battery technology that is forecast to go 1,000 miles per charge (YES, I said ONE THOUSAND MILES per charge).
There are dozens of universities - and even IBM - working on various ideas to improve energy density of batteries.

Pure Lithium when it reacts with air/water releases same amount of energy as when gas is burnt. The trick is to control that. Using nano particles or lithium air to increase the energy density by a factor of 5 to 10 and making them rechargeable is the "holy grail".

As for next gen - Nissan's NMC is about double of the current battery. That should be in Leaf model 2014 or 2015.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
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mitch672
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 2:00 pm

We can only hope that perhaps Nissan will license the "Tzero" technology from AC Propulsion, if they did that, a 200kw motor and an 18KW onboard charger, with V2G capability.... that would be a killer EV, if Nissan could lower the mfr cost of the ACP Tzero system. I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-reductive.html

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-tzero.html
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EVDRIVER
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 5:18 pm

mitch672 wrote:We can only hope that perhaps Nissan will license the "Tzero" technology from AC Propulsion, if they did that, a 200kw motor and an 18KW onboard charger, with V2G capability.... that would be a killer EV, if Nissan could lower the mfr cost of the ACP Tzero system. I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-reductive.html

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-tzero.html

This is the best traction system available today. Used in Tesla and other EVs and the weight is a fraction of other systems and the performance is amazing. I have driven the CEOs personal car and the ACP system is incredible. I won't even get started on the adjustable regen and charging. Once thing about and EV that an ICE will never touch is that a larger motor is just as efficient and in some cases more efficient as long as you don't use the power. If you use a V8 over a 4 banger you par the penalty for weight and friction, etc. On a larger AC motor the weigh is slightly higher but there is more torque at a lower current rating and much more power. ACP is a brilliant garage-made design that can't be touched as a package. Yes- you could run your house off an ACP system.

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evnow
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Wed Sep 15, 2010 5:47 pm

mitch672 wrote:I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..
They will definitely not buy it. Nothing to do with NIH - it is a question of mass production & profits. Nissan and other auto majors would want to own the core technologies until the industry evolves to such an extent that all these become commodatized.

May be Nissan will buy it for low volume cars like an EV version of GTR. BTW, I'm not convinced that ACP has a technology that can't be easily matched or bettered by an auto major. Afterall, even Tesla now doesn't license anything from ACP.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
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