next gen Leaf predictions?

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StrangerTides

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So I'd like to be an "early adopter," and I hope I can convert my reservation to an order in December as planned. But in case it doesn't work out financially, or if my old vehicle dies before December and I have to buy something else, or whatever, I'm curious if anyone has any educated guesses on the next generation Leaf. In particular:

- By next gen, I really mean one with a significant battery range increase - say 200 miles instead of 100. Any guesses as to when this might be available?

- Based on the above guess, will the $7500 tax credit still be available by that time, or will that law have gone un-renewed (or will 200K Leafs have been sold) by that time?

- Will the price be higher or lower than what we see right now for the first gen?

- What will the waiting line be like? Months? Or will we be able to buy one off the lot by then?

Any wild speculations (or inside info ;) ) welcome!
 
Nissan has already provided some of the data. The LEAF is basically a platform for five derivative vehicles presently in development. They are announcing a van soon. There's also a crossover SUV and a sedan. There's speculation of a 2 seat roadster to compete with Tesla, at 1/3 the price.
 
I don't think the $7,500 Gov credit will be around long for a few reasons.

The credit is for the first 200,000 cars only that is per manufacture or combined? Nissan is planning 50,000 next year and 2012 who know maybe 150,000?

Congress is changing guard this Nov who know can a cut in this program be on the table?

Waiting for a better battery could be 5 years away. So to answer your question NO the credit will not be around for you to get a better battery. BUT without the credit in 5 years who knows maybe the cost will be lower.
 
Gonewild said:
I don't think the $7,500 Gov credit will be around long for a few reasons.

The credit is for the first 200,000 cars only that is per manufacture or combined? Nissan is planning 50,000 next year and 2012 who know maybe 150,000?

Congress is changing guard this Nov who know can a cut in this program be on the table?

It is 200K per manufacturer. Even if the house flips, senate & Presidency will still be controlled by the same people. Besides I don't think the subsidy to alt fuel vehicles is that controversial in the congress as some people think it is. It was passed originally when Bush was president. The new EV bill passed the committee nearly unanimously (even though it didn't make it to the energy bill). Since Nissan, Toyota etc have plants in southern states, you will get senators of those state supporting the tax credits in anycase. Just look at the subsidy offerred in TN and announced by Lamar Alexander (R).
 
As part of a new stimulus program, Arizona State University is working on a new battery technology that is forecast to go 1,000 miles per charge (YES, I said ONE THOUSAND MILES per charge). I do not have any information on the target date for such technology, but it is being developed now. I do not forsee this available in 5 years, but hopefully when I replace my LEAF battery in 8-10 years. One can only hope for such developments.
 
SilverLeaf said:
As part of a new stimulus program, Arizona State University is working on a new battery technology that is forecast to go 1,000 miles per charge (YES, I said ONE THOUSAND MILES per charge).

There are dozens of universities - and even IBM - working on various ideas to improve energy density of batteries.

Pure Lithium when it reacts with air/water releases same amount of energy as when gas is burnt. The trick is to control that. Using nano particles or lithium air to increase the energy density by a factor of 5 to 10 and making them rechargeable is the "holy grail".

As for next gen - Nissan's NMC is about double of the current battery. That should be in Leaf model 2014 or 2015.
 
We can only hope that perhaps Nissan will license the "Tzero" technology from AC Propulsion, if they did that, a 200kw motor and an 18KW onboard charger, with V2G capability.... that would be a killer EV, if Nissan could lower the mfr cost of the ACP Tzero system. I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-reductive.html

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-tzero.html
 
mitch672 said:
We can only hope that perhaps Nissan will license the "Tzero" technology from AC Propulsion, if they did that, a 200kw motor and an 18KW onboard charger, with V2G capability.... that would be a killer EV, if Nissan could lower the mfr cost of the ACP Tzero system. I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-reductive.html

http://www.acpropulsion.com/products-tzero.html


This is the best traction system available today. Used in Tesla and other EVs and the weight is a fraction of other systems and the performance is amazing. I have driven the CEOs personal car and the ACP system is incredible. I won't even get started on the adjustable regen and charging. Once thing about and EV that an ICE will never touch is that a larger motor is just as efficient and in some cases more efficient as long as you don't use the power. If you use a V8 over a 4 banger you par the penalty for weight and friction, etc. On a larger AC motor the weigh is slightly higher but there is more torque at a lower current rating and much more power. ACP is a brilliant garage-made design that can't be touched as a package. Yes- you could run your house off an ACP system.
 
mitch672 said:
I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..

They will definitely not buy it. Nothing to do with NIH - it is a question of mass production & profits. Nissan and other auto majors would want to own the core technologies until the industry evolves to such an extent that all these become commodatized.

May be Nissan will buy it for low volume cars like an EV version of GTR. BTW, I'm not convinced that ACP has a technology that can't be easily matched or bettered by an auto major. Afterall, even Tesla now doesn't license anything from ACP.
 
They could still "license" the technology, improve upon it or take the concepts learned and come up with something even better... That technology would be awesome in a mass produced EV.
 
mitch672 said:
They could still "license" the technology, improve upon it or take the concepts learned and come up with something even better... That technology would be awesome in a mass produced EV.

Why would Nissan want to pay royalties to ACP on each EV they sell ?

Only reason an auto major takes something from others is for quick market launch. Like Nissan licensing Toyota's hybrid technology.
 
evnow said:
mitch672 said:
I hope that Nissan does not have a "NIH" attitude about this, this is superior technology, from a size/weight/cost viewpoint..

They will definitely not buy it. Nothing to do with NIH - it is a question of mass production & profits. Nissan and other auto majors would want to own the core technologies until the industry evolves to such an extent that all these become commodatized.

May be Nissan will buy it for low volume cars like an EV version of GTR. BTW, I'm not convinced that ACP has a technology that can't be easily matched or bettered by an auto major. Afterall, even Tesla now doesn't license anything from ACP.


They could buy it and the patents. the ACP system has been around for a long time and still unsurpassed today as a package by any major or small player. Alan built this in his garage and the best Nissan can do since the 90's is a 3.3 kw charger and a big giant 80kw motor? Auto makers rely on third parties to make their products better. Head units, AMG, etc. Auto makers operate on cost and not cutting edge tech usually. Most sub their parts out. Give it time and they will figure it out, as usual.
 
indyflick said:
Nissan has already provided some of the data. The LEAF is basically a platform for five derivative vehicles presently in development. They are announcing a van soon. There's also a crossover SUV and a sedan. There's speculation of a 2 seat roadster to compete with Tesla, at 1/3 the price.

Nissan has already announced the van. It will debut at the Hannover, Germany International Motor Show next week.
 
evnow said:
mitch672 said:
They could still "license" the technology, improve upon it or take the concepts learned and come up with something even better... That technology would be awesome in a mass produced EV.

Why would Nissan want to pay royalties to ACP on each EV they sell ?

Only reason an auto major takes something from others is for quick market launch. Like Nissan licensing Toyota's hybrid technology.

Why indeed, to make the 2nd generation Leaf the best performing, compatible with upcoming V2G technology, mass produced EV in history. I'm sure ACP and Nissan could work out a deal, if the two of them wanted to. With Nissan's battery technology (ok, aemc's) and ACP's innovative integrated design, not much could touch it for a long time.
 
Seems silly trying to predict what the features will be on Gen2 when we really don't have all the facts on Gen1...and some of us have ordered one already.
 
palmermd said:
Seems silly trying to predict what the features will be on Gen2 when we really don't have all the facts on Gen1...and some of us have ordered one already.

Well, by the time SOME of us can get a Gen1 Leaf, there maybe other EV's to choose from, that is all :)
 
indyflick said:
There's speculation of a 2 seat roadster to compete with Tesla, at 1/3 the price.

My plan is to lease the Leaf for 39 months, at which time this sports roadster will be available. Can't wait for a Tesla at 1/3 the price. I wonder if Lotus has agreed to 1/3 the price on the sexy body and great-handling frame. :lol:
 
Boomer23 said:
indyflick said:
There's speculation of a 2 seat roadster to compete with Tesla, at 1/3 the price.
My plan is to lease the Leaf for 39 months, at which time this sports roadster will be available. Can't wait for a Tesla at 1/3 the price. I wonder if Lotus has agreed to 1/3 the price on the sexy body and great-handling frame. :lol:
Excellent. My plan is that in 10 yrs, my kids will start driving the Leaf. With a limited range of ~70 mi. by that time, it will be perfect for a couple of teenagers. What better than a built-in mileage limit to keep them close (enough) to home! ;)
 
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