KJD
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:23 am

bigrob90 wrote: The bigger battery is the bigger deal, assuming we are still talking AC charging. There will need to be 100kw DC charging with the bigger batteries, though. But if Nissan makes a 60kwh battery and keeps the 6.6kw charger, I don't think that would be a big deal. If you got a 32A EVSE, you'd be still be able to charge to 100 overnight. And the need for higher output L2 EVSEs would still be pretty limited. If Nissan is able to produce a 250 mile range, price-competitive (with other midsized vehicles, after incentives) EV, then the main issue most people are going to have with it will be its unsuitability for long road trips. And that's only going to be solved with more reliable DC charging access.
OK I understand what you are saying here, but I really doubt that Nissan would be crazy enough to go head to head with Tesla on a 60. Why not make a 40kwh car that has a price point much less than a Tesla base model 60?

Now take that Nissan 40kwh car and add an 80 amp J plug and you would really have a decent car. The problem with CHAdeMO charge stations around here is they are broken 90% of the time. The 2nd problem with CHAdeMO is they are way too costly. (about 30 grand each).

The clippercreek 80 amp unit is less than 2200 by comparison. You could by 15 of these units for the same amount as one CHAdeMO unit that is always offline anyhow.
http://www.clippercreek.com/store/produ ... igh-power/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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EVDRIVER
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:00 am

DanCar wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:If I had a $1 for every high capacity battery in "testing". Carlos also has said many things that never materialized. It's fully because this works and some many people are under the impression that there will be a sub $35K long range LEAF available for purchase in the next two years, some even think the next year.
From a variety of sources the LG next gen batteries are expected at the end of this year. Maybe a little early or significantly late. I expect Nissan's next gen's batteries to arrive in the same time frame. Nissan plug-in hybrid qashqai is expected later this year. One of these might be the first with next gen battery.
http://www.whatcar.com/car-news/nissan- ... ed/1211420" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan Hi-Cross AWD Plug-In Hybrid EV Concept video from 2012:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S07QQfu1rwc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I never mentioned higher capacity or improved cells were not available but rather in an actual car for actual sale at a price of the mid thirties or less. I also I don't even expect the high range numbers being thrown around. Batteries in a car on the market at a reasonable price with the stated range sounds more like the advance EV PR that has been the same for the last 10 plus years. I don't doubt the range of a future LEAF will be increased in some way but not like the numbers suggested and at the prices and dates suggested. Even if they could do this at a reduced price there is no reason when they can charge significantly more until there is price competition for the same range.

What do you think will be the min EPA range, price and actual sale date of this LEAF?

KJD
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:35 am

EVDRIVER wrote: I never mentioned higher capacity or improved cells were not available but rather in an actual car for actual sale at a price of the mid thirties or less. I also I don't even expect the high range numbers being thrown around. Batteries in a car on the market at a reasonable price with the stated range sounds more like the advance EV PR that has been the same for the last 10 plus years. I don't doubt the range of a future LEAF will be increased in some way but not like the numbers suggested and at the prices and dates suggested. Even if they could do this at a reduced price there is no reason when they can charge significantly more until there is price competition for the same range.

What do you think will be the min EPA range, price and actual sale date of this LEAF?
Start with the base model LEAF today at $ 29,010. Range is about 84 miles.
https://autos.yahoo.com/nissan/leaf/2015/s/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now increase the price and the range by 50%
Cost would be about 43,500 MSRP.
Range would be about 126 EPA miles.

Not sure about your area, but the dealers around here have been discounting the current LEAF 5k or 6k and then you still get the 7500 tax rebate, so the $ 43,500 would high end of the price range. (before dealer discounts and tax rebates) Real selling price would be less than 40 for sure.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:44 pm

KJD wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote: I never mentioned higher capacity or improved cells were not available but rather in an actual car for actual sale at a price of the mid thirties or less. I also I don't even expect the high range numbers being thrown around. Batteries in a car on the market at a reasonable price with the stated range sounds more like the advance EV PR that has been the same for the last 10 plus years. I don't doubt the range of a future LEAF will be increased in some way but not like the numbers suggested and at the prices and dates suggested. Even if they could do this at a reduced price there is no reason when they can charge significantly more until there is price competition for the same range.

What do you think will be the min EPA range, price and actual sale date of this LEAF?
Start with the base model LEAF today at $ 29,010. Range is about 84 miles.
https://autos.yahoo.com/nissan/leaf/2015/s/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now increase the price and the range by 50%
Cost would be about 43,500 MSRP.
Range would be about 126 EPA miles.

Not sure about your area, but the dealers around here have been discounting the current LEAF 5k or 6k and then you still get the 7500 tax rebate, so the $ 43,500 would high end of the price range. (before dealer discounts and tax rebates) Real selling price would be less than 40 for sure.

126 does not equal the 180 or 200 mile plus numbers talked about. My comments relate to these range numbers. Your price is not mid thirties before rebates it's $10K more and with only a 126 mile range. Even at $40K list I don't see a LEAF with a 180 plus EPA range coming anytime soon.

So what is your guess for...

MSRP on base model
EPA range
Sale date
?

bigrob90
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:25 pm

KJD wrote: OK I understand what you are saying here, but I really doubt that Nissan would be crazy enough to go head to head with Tesla on a 60. Why not make a 40kwh car that has a price point much less than a Tesla base model 60?

Now take that Nissan 40kwh car and add an 80 amp J plug and you would really have a decent car. The problem with CHAdeMO charge stations around here is they are broken 90% of the time. The 2nd problem with CHAdeMO is they are way too costly. (about 30 grand each).

The clippercreek 80 amp unit is less than 2200 by comparison. You could by 15 of these units for the same amount as one CHAdeMO unit that is always offline anyhow.
http://www.clippercreek.com/store/produ ... igh-power/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That sounds reasonable. I'm using the 250 mile thing because Ghosn indicated that was what the next one would have: http://www.hybridcars.com/ceo-ghosn-nis ... v-battery/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They may have some density improvements, along with size increases, which will make this possible Perhaps a lighter, more aerodynamic Leaf would not require a 60kwh battery to go 250 miles. What if the Leaf gets a 48kwh battery and improved aerodynamics? Perhaps that, along with it being much lighter than a Tesla, would get it that kind of range. Now, at that point, higher amperage public charging might be valuable. But, I don't think they'd make that standard unless the cost difference is minimal. It might be an option. But 20kw charging still would mean over 2 hours to fully charge on a road trip. I still don't think that's fast enough to make a difference to consumers. But perhaps higher output onboard chargers will become cheaper so that they can make it standard.
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KJD
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:40 pm

EVDRIVER wrote: 126 does not equal the 180 or 200 mile plus numbers talked about. My comments relate to these range numbers. Your price is not mid thirties before rebates it's $10K more and with only a 126 mile range. Even at $40K list I don't see a LEAF with a 180 plus EPA range coming anytime soon.

So what is your guess for...

MSRP on base model
EPA range
Sale date
?
Not really sure what you are so angry about. I never said you could have 200 mile range for 30 grand. That is a pipe dream.

I will say again that 84 miles of range on a new LEAF is not enough. Ghosn has said that Nissan can increase the range by a lot. Nissan did a survey asking people what they would pay for 150 mile range. Why did they do that? I think that he (Ghosn) would know more about it than you do.

Here is my wild *** guess
MSRP 35k to 40k
Range 120 - 150 miles
Sale date - Whenever current LEAF sales start to tank in a big way. LEAF 2.0 will then appear like magic. This could be a 2016 model or 2017 model year.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:06 pm

KJD wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote: 126 does not equal the 180 or 200 mile plus numbers talked about. My comments relate to these range numbers. Your price is not mid thirties before rebates it's $10K more and with only a 126 mile range. Even at $40K list I don't see a LEAF with a 180 plus EPA range coming anytime soon.

So what is your guess for...

MSRP on base model
EPA range
Sale date
?
Not really sure what you are so angry about. I never said you could have 200 mile range for 30 grand. That is a pipe dream.

I will say again that 84 miles of range on a new LEAF is not enough. Ghosn has said that Nissan can increase the range by a lot. Nissan did a survey asking people what they would pay for 150 mile range. Why did they do that? I think that he (Ghosn) would know more about it than you do.

Here is my wild *** guess
MSRP 35k to 40k
Range 120 - 150 miles
Sale date - Whenever current LEAF sales start to tank in a big way. LEAF 2.0 will then appear like magic. This could be a 2016 model or 2017 model year.

I'm not angry, So based on your guess that lines up with what I mentioned initially, no 180 mile car in that price range. Tanking LEAF sales are not the drivers that will dictate the release date of the next model, these decisions are made far in advance, cars are not designed and built in based on slumping sales clearly.

DanCar
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:27 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:... What do you think will be the min EPA range, price and actual sale date of this LEAF?
The base leaf will have 100 mile EPA range and cost about $29K. Less after the discounts kick in 6 months afterwards. As a $4K extra option you can get a 150 mile range leaf. Optimistically I expect the 2016 Leaf will have the 100 mile range option one year from now. More realistically it will be the 2017 Leaf 1.5 years from now. The 250 mile range number is from Japan cycle that is far more kind to electric range than EPA.

The Infiniti LE will come out a few months ahead of the Leaf and will have 165 mile range. 10% more than the Leaf.
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fotajoye
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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:25 pm

Interesting speculations with some really well executed dreaming:
It's going on five years now without much change in Nissan's Leaf battery. Tell ya' I'm somewhat pessimistic and don't expect much from Nissan; perhaps a reliable 120 miles range at 60 mph. Why? because traction batteries ain't cheap and an honest 120 mile range battery would require a 40 kW battery which is twice the capacity of the current 20 Kw battery (yes, I know the battery is 24kW; but, Nissan leaves about 4 kW of headroom). If the battery stayed the same size, the specific density would be about 300 Wh/Kg and that's about twice what the current specific density is for the LiMnO4 chemistry. That's a lot of difference...more than I expect from them.

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Re: next gen Leaf predictions?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:24 pm

Any speculation that a new Leaf might get better than 4mi/kWh (approximate average for current 20kWh and 85 mi range)? E.g., if that went up by 50%, then the capacity of the battery would only need to increase by 50% to get to a 150 mi range.
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