His basic premise is correct: The range of electric cars will increase. After that it's all speculation. He bases his speculation on the perceived importance of a “first to market” strategy and paraphrases part of something that General Douglas MacArthur said as support for his speculation. The author said: “General Douglas MacArthur used to say that behind every lost battle there are two words: Too late.”LTLFTcomposite wrote:http://www.thestreet.com/story/12554189 ... -leaf.html
Is this substantiated in any way? $4k price increase seems like a detail not just pulled from thin air.
Wahlman may be correct in his assertion; there is a lot to say about proper timing. However, committing one's resources too early in a rapidly evolving technology can also be a mistake. Wahlman states that “The industry has widely pointed to 200-mile electric cars being available in 2016 or 2017.” He supports this assertion with reports about GM and Audi preparing to release longer range electric vehicles.
I can't put too much stock in what GM says with regards to all electric vehicles and the web site that Wahlman links to entitled: “Audi R8 e-Tron Electric Supercar Nearly Ready For Production” doesn't even make sense in the context of his article. The Audi R8 e-Tron is a very expensive car that will not be competing with the Nissan LEAF. It may well be a concern for Elon musk and the model S if Audi actually puts the car into production.
For what it's worth, I think that if Nissan is smart they will keep working on better batteries and keep the form factor of the batteries the same between models. When they do develop a battery that will give them a significant boost they'll be ready to start slapping them into their cars. At the same time eliminate the fear of current LEAF owners that if their batteries fail there may not be replacements. On my gas guzzler I can have the motor rebuilt but if the form factor on the LEAF batteries changes I might not be able to replace them at a reasonable price. I also like the idea that if battery improvements allow a greater range I won't be left behind like I was with my 3.3 kW charger.