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evnow
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:40 am

GRA wrote:... majority of climates and drivers in the U.S., my definition of 'reliable' including EoL degradation, free use of HVAC and a reserve while being driven the 'wrong' way.
The idea is not to "appeal" to majority of people or climates. It is to get enough people interested to get to the next level in terms of sales. Leaf doesn't need to be practical for 5 Million new car buyers to sell 60 thousand a year. 50% improvement in EPA rating will net lot more than 50% extra sales - in the areas it is already selling well. No need to build something for Montana and Alaska.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

jlsoaz
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:23 pm

kmp647 wrote:I know this is a lot of speculation, but its plain to see the future sucess of the Leaf or Nissan EV will depend on larger capacity batteries and longer range. I believe Nissan will see a sales plateau in 2014 which will only be broken by a redesign, and or longer range option for the 2015 Leaf. read this as , whatever 2014 sales are Leaf would never sell much above that level ever unless it was offered with significantly longer range and improved styling. Now they might well capture some additional sales by offering the E-nv200 , but it might also steal sales from the Leaf.
To grow its market capture they will need a much improved range .

ask yourself if you would buy or lease another , say a 2015 or 2016 model if there were some minor improvements but no additional range?

I know my answer , no way.
My answer is no way also, but I think Nissan probably will probably have to offer a longer-range BEV under $40k or so to stay competitive especially since Tesla has brought some clarity to the timeline and competition with its Model E plans.

If they offer an under-$40k BEV with a legit 36kwh + and an improved outlook on battery degradation, then my question is will they offer existing lessees a completely (totally) non-penalizing and hassle-free way to trade into the new vehicle before leases are technically up. If they do make a special trade-in offer, I'd consider it but couldn't at all guarantee taking it since I am already out money to deal with the issue (i.e.: trying to set myself up with a used gasoline vehicle), and since the range of choices appears to be slowly expanding, while I wait.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

GRA
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:09 pm

evnow wrote:
GRA wrote:... majority of climates and drivers in the U.S., my definition of 'reliable' including EoL degradation, free use of HVAC and a reserve while being driven the 'wrong' way.
The idea is not to "appeal" to majority of people or climates. It is to get enough people interested to get to the next level in terms of sales. Leaf doesn't need to be practical for 5 Million new car buyers to sell 60 thousand a year. 50% improvement in EPA rating will net lot more than 50% extra sales - in the areas it is already selling well. No need to build something for Montana and Alaska.
Montana, Alaska, Wyoming and similar states are the last ones I'm thinking of. They're big, low density and lack major population centers, in addition to having extremely cold winters. I'm thinking of people living in Kansas City, Twin Cities, Detroit, Buffalo etc. and their suburbs, i.e. mainstream urban/suburban America. We have to get past the early adopter crowd in the next generation, if EVs are to prosper. And we need to do it before 2017, because who knows what will happen politically then.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:53 am

Anton Wahlman is doubling down on his story:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12673069 ... -race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

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EVDRIVER
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:08 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anton Wahlman is doubling down on his story:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12673069 ... -race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


"Nissan did not say precisely how the battery will be improved this time, or by how much capacity -- and therefore range -- would be improved.

Nissan did say that once every few years we should expect a step function in battery improvement that would be a lot more than the single-digit percentage incremental version."

If they have a 10% improvement that is much more than a single digit improvement from 5%. "A lot more" is very subjective but somehow he has translated the Nissan words into 135 miles. The issue is there is no quote to substantiate his actual figure other than his opinion so far. In Nissan speak "a lot more" could mean exactly 10% which is a double digit number :lol:

jlsoaz
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:09 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anton Wahlman is doubling down on his story:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12673069 ... -race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think the messenger did a pretty good job of delivering this message. The message itself is partially painful to read:
...
3. View on battery size.

On this point, Nissan was somewhat contradictory, in my view. Nissan said it believes people are fine with an 84-mile electric car. Why? Because it says it knows people aren't driving nearly as far as 84 miles most of the time.

In my view, this is total nonsense. Of course people aren't driving more than 84 miles -- or some such number -- in a Nissan Leaf. They can't! It's like telling a starving person in Africa they have no need for an American diet because to date they have been observed to only eat 500 calories per day.

[...]
In any case, the fact that Nissan Leaf drivers almost always drive fewer than 84 miles per trip means nothing as to their need or want to have a car that can go longer. Every single Nissan Leaf driver I know -- and I know many of them -- have one complaint with their car, and one only: Please give us a version that has 150 or 200 miles of range. Or 250. That's what they want. It's the only thing they want to improve their Leaf. The need for much longer range is total and uniform, not the other way around.

Otherwise, if the EV can't handle 150, 200, 250 miles, they can't get rid of their other (gasoline or diesel) car, and they can't be sufficiently happy in their Leaf. I don't see why this is so hard to understand.

I heard a similar argument recently, too, from another major automaker, which shall remain unnamed for the moment. Their idea is that 99% of the time you don't need to go more than 80 to -100 miles of whatever, and that therefore a car that can go 80 to 100 miles will be enough.
...
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

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evnow
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:20 am

GRA wrote: I'm thinking of people living in Kansas City, Twin Cities, Detroit, Buffalo etc. and their suburbs, i.e. mainstream urban/suburban America. We have to get past the early adopter crowd in the next generation, if EVs are to prosper. And we need to do it before 2017, because who knows what will happen politically then.
No we don't need to appeal to those people to get to 5% market share.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

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EVDRIVER
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:41 am

evnow wrote:
GRA wrote: I'm thinking of people living in Kansas City, Twin Cities, Detroit, Buffalo etc. and their suburbs, i.e. mainstream urban/suburban America. We have to get past the early adopter crowd in the next generation, if EVs are to prosper. And we need to do it before 2017, because who knows what will happen politically then.
No we don't need to appeal to those people to get to 5% market share.

"suburbs" Remember one of the key reasons for suburbs near big cities? Oh the irony.

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Nubo
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:50 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Anton Wahlman is doubling down on his story:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12673069 ... -race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
He's added some more conjecture to his previous conjectures. Which he now presents as fact!
As background, I wrote back on March 27 on the subject of the upcoming estimated 135-mile range Nissan Leaf.
Now, Nissan may well be preparing higher range models, and sooner or later it's practically inevitable. But, they certainly have not confirmed the feverish dreams of this fellow.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

KJD
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Re: 135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:22 am

I would love to be able to buy a LEAF with double the current range, however according to this article it will NOT happen this year.
And for those of you hoping for the surprise introduction of the next generation LEAF, or possibly a significant battery/range upgrade, it appears you will have to wait until next year (as originally anticipated).
http://insideevs.com/2015-nissan-leaf-n ... e-changes/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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