User avatar
TomT
Posts: 10641
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:09 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 000360
Location: California, now Georgia
Contact: Website

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:59 pm

Talk is cheap...

[quote=]Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn unintentionally reveals that his company is working on a battery that could double range of the LEAF.
[/quote]
Leaf SL 2011 to 2016, Volt Premier 2016 to 2019, and now:
2019 Model 3; LR, RWD, FSD, 19" Sport Wheels, silver/black; built 3/17/19, delivered 3/29/19.

User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11474
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:34 pm

Merged.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

DeeAgeaux
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:52 pm

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:47 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:

Tesla's main advantage is range and wealthy buyers at the moment, if affordable chemistry comes about Tesla could suffer severely from mass production at the hands of major auto makers. Their "affordable" EV is a long way away and will not likely be affordable except in relative terms to a model S, that is the more likely outcome. However so far affordable 250 mile packs are vaporware at this point. As a side note for all those that believe that Toyota hates EVs, well we shall see how true that if any maker has an affordable 250 mile EV, most of the PR is intentional for competitive posturing and nonsense misdirection as in Toyota's transparent dis-information campaigns.
Tesla's main advantage is that they are all in the BEV game and battery cell economies of scale.

Not units of battery packs but in kWh.

Cost savings from building gliders at scale pale to manufacturing battery cells at scale.

The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

Double current LEAF range is 168 EPA miles.

Any new battery chemistry that radically alters cost will take at least 5 years to validate and given the conservative nature of the large auto makers it will most likely take 10 years.

Catastrophic failure of batteries in terms of safety or durability can sink an automakers BEV program for 20+ years. Even if not fully deserved. How long did it take GM and Ford to get over Vega and Pinto infamy before they could sell small cars without huge discounts relative to the Japanese?

fotajoye
Posts: 268
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 12:18 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Apr 2011
Leaf Number: 669
Location: Northern California

Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:18 pm

One cannot truly quote battery range without disclosing the velocity of the measurement. for example the Tesla range is measured at 55 mph. At 65 mph the car gets a lot less range. So, if Nissan says 200 miles, you can bet it's not at 65 mph. Also, the EPA has accomplished one thing with their measurements. They have proven they don't have a clearly defined measurement for EVs because they keep changing the test...so, we are really blind to actually comparing range between cars. MPGe seems to be a process to assure the Government test designers keep collecting a check each month.

My Leaf gets about 60 miles range in the Sierra foothills; I've never been satisfied with that; but, I understand why and I think many of us have been patient with Nissan while they hopefully work to create a "Better Battery." It's been four years. Why is it not here?

bigrob90
Posts: 182
Joined: Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:41 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Oct 2014
Leaf Number: 316941
Location: Atlanta, GA
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:41 pm

fotajoye wrote:One cannot truly quote battery range without disclosing the velocity of the measurement. for example the Tesla range is measured at 55 mph. At 65 mph the car gets a lot less range. So, if Nissan says 200 miles, you can bet it's not at 65 mph. Also, the EPA has accomplished one thing with their measurements. They have proven they don't have a clearly defined measurement for EVs because they keep changing the test...so, we are really blind to actually comparing range between cars. MPGe seems to be a process to assure the Government test designers keep collecting a check each month.

My Leaf gets about 60 miles range in the Sierra foothills; I've never been satisfied with that; but, I understand why and I think many of us have been patient with Nissan while they hopefully work to create a "Better Battery." It's been four years. Why is it not here?
4 years is not enough time in the car world to make significant changes to a car. Model cycles tend to go 4-7 years, depending on the class of car (generally the more expensive the car, the less frequently it is revamped). I do expect the next Leaf to be significantly different. That may or may not mean significantly more range. And they have created a slightly better battery, from what I gather. It's just not a game-changing difference. I don't expect more than about a 50% boost in range for the next Leaf, to be honest. Possibly not that much, if the concentration is on making the car more aesthetically appealing. Whatever the big innovation in mass-produced battery packs for EVs is, I expect Tesla to get there first, since they are throwing the whole company at electric vehicles. If the Leaf really does double range, then that would be even better, but I'm expecting them, along with just about everyone else, to follow Tesla.
Cayenne Red 2015 Leaf S w/QC
2 year, 15k lease

kubel
Posts: 1609
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:38 am
Leaf Number: 19628
Location: Southeast Michigan

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:55 pm

DeeAgeaux wrote:The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.
I'm skeptical that they will come close to $35,000 by 2017. I think we'll be looking at $47,000 ($39,500 with tax credit) and shipments starting in late 2018. That will let buyers spec up the car a bit with minimal overlap into Model S territory.

Tesla will have its hands full with SD and X through 2018.
2012 Nissan LEAF SV
20% degradation in 42k miles
Leased 5-17-2012, Returned 1-15-2016


2017 Chevy Volt LT
Siren Red Tintcoat
Leased 10-21-2016

bigrob90
Posts: 182
Joined: Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:41 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Oct 2014
Leaf Number: 316941
Location: Atlanta, GA
Contact: Website

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:47 pm

kubel wrote:
DeeAgeaux wrote:The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.
I'm skeptical that they will come close to $35,000 by 2017. I think we'll be looking at $47,000 ($39,500 with tax credit) and shipments starting in late 2018. That will let buyers spec up the car a bit with minimal overlap into Model S territory.

Tesla will have its hands full with SD and X through 2018.
I agree. The large automakers can absorb per-unit losses on EVs, since avoiding fees associated with fuel economy can make it worthwhile. Tesla will make money from these things. I think Tesla will probably always be more expensive than a comparable EV from a full-line automaker for that reason. The full-line guys have regulatory reasons to have loss leaders, whereas Tesla does not.
Cayenne Red 2015 Leaf S w/QC
2 year, 15k lease

minispeed
Posts: 681
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:52 am
Delivery Date: 15 Jul 2014
Location: Ancaster, ON

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:51 pm

kubel wrote:
DeeAgeaux wrote:The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.
I'm skeptical that they will come close to $35,000 by 2017. I think we'll be looking at $47,000 ($39,500 with tax credit) and shipments starting in late 2018. That will let buyers spec up the car a bit with minimal overlap into Model S territory.

Tesla will have its hands full with SD and X through 2018.

I think if the model iii does make the $35,000 price point it won't be for the 200 mile range car. We'll probably see the model iii slotted in with a sub 200 mile, probably 160-175 and a bang on model s 60 range top end model iii. If the model iii does get to 200 miles for $35,000 I wouldn't be surprised to see the model s base model switch to the 85 and maybe a higher spec one above that.

I also predict that the model iii drive train has already been shown, I think we'll see the rear axel single motor set up of the D driving RWD only in the model iii, at least in the base model.

Personally I wish they had stuck with the model s 40 and driven cost down through volume instead of trying to get the model iii out before a second gen model s. I can see how some people would think the car is too big but I would have stretched a budget to pay 50% more than my leaf for a model s 40. I wouldn't spend just over 100% more for the 60. They could have even worked on a second gen model s for the 85 and up and kept the 1st gen in 40 and 60 longer. It worked for VW in Canada when they sold the old jetta and golf as the jetta city and golf city along the new jetta and rabbit. (around 2005ish).

That's all super off topic. As for the next leaf I'm still putting my money on 50% more battery in a base model and efficiency gains (aero, weight, larger diameter thinner tires) to get the range up to 150 us EPA.
2015 White SV, after one month 292 GIDS
Best 1 charge drive, 229km (143miles)

User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11474
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:00 pm

TomT wrote:Talk is cheap...
Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn unintentionally reveals that his company is working on a battery that could double range of the LEAF.
posting is cheaper ;)
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11474
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:02 pm

DeeAgeaux wrote:The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.
The spokesman for Tesla already quoted $40k.

The most likely outcome is base Model 3 will be $15k over base Leaf by 2018.

$25 vs $40 (+/- 2k)
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

Return to “LEAF Gen 2 & Infiniti EV”