Interleaf
Posts: 66
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:30 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Jun 2011
Leaf Number: 5000
Location: Northern CA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:27 am

alozzy wrote:Range is logarithmic? How so?
The marginal utility of a mile of range diminishes as the range increases. Surely mile 20 has a much higher utility than mile 1000. This example should show that it is wrong to assume the two have equal utility, or that utility double by doubling the range.

My own experience has been that the marginal utility of mile 150 is about half (or even less) than the utility of mile 50. That is every 100 miles, the utility is halved. Thus value is logarithmic to range.
SL-QC, #5000+ blue - Delivery June 20, 2011 the day after the Calif. $5000 rebate ran out to $2500. Coincidence? Nah, dealer ***** Nissan is front-running.

Interleaf
Posts: 66
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:30 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Jun 2011
Leaf Number: 5000
Location: Northern CA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:39 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
If what Cwerdna writes about the misadventures of I3 Rex drivers is correct, it's now pretty explicable. ;-)
I was unable to locate what Cwedna writes about the i3 Rex.

If this is about CARB stupidly restricting Rex functionality, then that would be a regulatory issue and not with the serial EV concept. I can understand that it is a pain to carry a smelly gas generator with all its service issues, when you may rarely need it, but as a method to overcome range limitations, it is unbeatable. The criticism I have heard of the i3 Rex is that it has a 3 gallon gas tank and will not start until SoC reaches 20% or so - both very bad CARB ideas.
SL-QC, #5000+ blue - Delivery June 20, 2011 the day after the Calif. $5000 rebate ran out to $2500. Coincidence? Nah, dealer ***** Nissan is front-running.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 15513
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:17 am

There have apparently been numerous instances of the Rex system dying and "bricking" the whole car - disabling it at the side of, or even in the middle of, the road. I've also read that compared with, say, a Prius, the Rex is dirty and smelly. I personally wouldn't object to either a Ultra Low Emission gasoline Rex or a CNG Rex with a tiny tank, but the BMW system seems cobbled together, and poorly at that.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

cwerdna
Posts: 11167
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:37 am

Interleaf wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:
If what Cwerdna writes about the misadventures of I3 Rex drivers is correct, it's now pretty explicable. ;-)
I was unable to locate what Cwedna writes about the i3 Rex.
To put it simply, the i3 REx is a POS from a reliability POV. See http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 02#p477302 and what I pointed to at myrav4ev.com and some of the following posts both there and here on MNL.

I'm not clear if the problems are closer to being resolved w/'17 i3 RExes but it seems pretty clear that those with earlier model years seem to be in for a rough time. I still stand by what I say towards the end. There is no way I would want an out of warranty i3 REx. Even one within the warranty seems too troublesome.

I do not recommend anyone lease or buy an i3 REx. If they really want an i3, they should get the BEV version and consider only leasing. If they buy, dump when the warranty's over.

If I had a cushy low stress job w/limited hours required or were retired, ok, I'd have more time for an extra "hobby" of always taking it to the spa.
Interleaf wrote:The criticism I have heard of the i3 Rex is that it has a 3 gallon gas tank and will not start until SoC reaches 20% or so -
I believe it's actually 1.9 gallons usable (http://www.bmwblog.com/2015/01/22/bmw-i ... lons-tank/) and the REx engine IIRC doesn't engage until 5 or 6% SoC. Because the engine is so wimpy and underpowered, unless you "code" it, you would NOT want to take it up uphill grades at highway or even leisurely speeds.

Examples:
http://www.mybmwi3.com/forum/viewtopic. ... 434#p15434 - couldn't go faster than 9 mph
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BMWi3/p ... comments=5 - also reported getting as low as 9 mph
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BMWi3/p ... 284877436/ - couldn't go faster than 35 or 40 mph
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BMWi3/p ... 22R2%22%7D - got stuck at 25 mph

You will need to join the i3 FB group to see the FB comments. This is not the crux of my criticism. Although these speeds are dangerous if on a highway, this is better than a pure BEV w/a dead battery trying to climb those same roads.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium (lease over)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11480
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:55 am

OrientExpress wrote:OK, EVNow, you are an outlier, nothing wrong with that. And I am also talking about the average trip statistic. 60 miles or less.

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita ... ravel.html
I don't think you are getting what I'm saying. Look at the entire distribution of miles travelled - not just average. People don't buy a vehicle for their "average" needs. They buy to fulfill 90%+ of their needs - not 50% of their needs.

ps : my commute is 10 to 20 miles roundtrip.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

User avatar
OrientExpress
Posts: 1579
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:22 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2331
Location: San Jose, Ca

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:41 am

evnow wrote:I don't think you are getting what I'm saying. Look at the entire distribution of miles travelled - not just average. People don't buy a vehicle for their "average" needs. They buy to fulfill 90%+ of their needs - not 50% of their needs.

ps : my commute is 10 to 20 miles roundtrip.
We are in agreement that people buy to fulfill 90% of their needs and that for 95% of the population cars like the LEAF do just that. The sticking point is confusing perceived needs vs. actual needs. Most don't really keep track of how much they drive in a week/month/year, and still, use the "tank to tank" method of estimating needed range rather than the day to day needs. One of the strongest arguments for an EV is that with the ability to charge each evening and destination charging, the car has a "full tank" each day.

With EV's now offering mid and long range "tank" capacities the whole range argument is quickly becoming moot, as is the obsession of focusing on the single criteria of how many miles an EV can travel on one charge. Again this applies to the general population and acknowledging that there will always be outliers that these criteria do not apply to. The challenge now is how well this new generation of EVs passes the "Value" test.

What is the "Value" test? It's the combination of features, usability, reliability, style, and cost.

This is why I don't think that 200+ mile range as the sole criteria for EV consideration is really valid. And the market and some of the leading manufacturers seem to agree.

For example, the Chevy Bolt. Yes, it has 230+ miles of range and its technology is commendable. So why has it been a flop in the market, with GM selling them at a loss to get them off dealers lots? It's because the Bolt's features, value, and cost are off balance.

GM chose the sub-compact Gamma platform for the car which is designed for the European and Asian markets, stuck an expensive 60kWh battery in it, and ended up with a $42K car with a package that just does not pass the value test. (sure they have a $36K version, but that car fails the value test even more).

The Tesla Model 3 faces a similar issue. Despite its record setting pre-order interest, it is even more off balance both for Tesla and those that have expressed an interest in obtaining the car based on the illusion of it being a $35K vehicle. Tesla admits the real entry point is more like $45K, and that is the ASP that the majority of Model 3s will be sold at. Technically and stylistically the Model 3 is a nice effort, but it is off balance in that it is beyond the means of a good chunk of those that have put down reservations.

Then there is the new LEAF. I suspect that Nissan understands their target market very well, and knows that the sweet spot for them is having a well-equipped car with reliability, style, and value that starts under $30K and maxes out at $36K. If that means offering an EV that has a slightly shorter range to achieve that balance that is what they will do. But they will also ride the cost curve and continue to add value for the price points their market demands. So with that in mind, I expect that as soon as they can offer a 230+ mile version that fits in their value space and they can make money doing it, they will.
2018 LEAF SL
Gun Metalic
Delivery April 10 2018

Prior LEAF:
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
50,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

Joe6pack
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:57 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 025854

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:29 am

+1
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
Braselton, GA

User avatar
jlv
Moderator
Posts: 1449
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:08 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:09 am

Interleaf wrote:The current bigotry against range extenders is inexplicable.
I like the mechanical simplicity of a pure EV. I don't want any tailpipe emissions. That's what keeps me away from the Prii, Volts and i3+Rex.
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18, 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%)
Tesla S 75D (3/17, 45K mi)
Tesla X 100D (12/18, 23K mi)
ICE free since '18
100K+ 100% BEV miles since '14

Durandal
Posts: 365
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:21 am

jlv wrote:
Interleaf wrote:The current bigotry against range extenders is inexplicable.
I like the mechanical simplicity of a pure EV. I don't want any tailpipe emissions. That's what keeps me away from the Prii, Volts and i3+Rex.
^THIS. All over the place, this.
I won't buy another gasoline powered anything. Electric all the way on all things. All of my lawn equipment is lithium ion battery powered, including lawn mower, blower, hedge trimmer, chainsaw, etc, etc. I think the only things that I have that done run on lithium batteries are my electric plug-in cement mixer and my electric plug-in post hole auger. When I get my Model 3, our dino burner will pretty much only be used when we go camping, only because I won't want to ding/dirty up my Model 3.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

Reddy
Posts: 1544
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:09 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Aug 2011
Leaf Number: 006828
Location: Pasco, WA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:23 am

OrientExpress wrote:
evnow wrote:I don't think you are getting what I'm saying. Look at the entire distribution of miles travelled - not just average. People don't buy a vehicle for their "average" needs. They buy to fulfill 90%+ of their needs - not 50% of their needs.

ps : my commute is 10 to 20 miles roundtrip.
We are in agreement that people buy to fulfill 90% of their needs and that for 95% of the population cars like the LEAF do just that. The sticking point is confusing perceived needs vs. actual needs. Most don't really keep track of how much they drive in a week/month/year, and still, use the "tank to tank" method of estimating needed range rather than the day to day needs. One of the strongest arguments for an EV is that with the ability to charge each evening and destination charging, the car has a "full tank" each day.

With EV's now offering mid and long range "tank" capacities the whole range argument is quickly becoming moot, as is the obsession of focusing on the single criteria of how many miles an EV can travel on one charge. Again this applies to the general population and acknowledging that there will always be outliers that these criteria do not apply to. The challenge now is how well this new generation of EVs passes the "Value" test.

What is the "Value" test? It's the combination of features, usability, reliability, style, and cost.

This is why I don't think that 200+ mile range as the sole criteria for EV consideration is really valid. And the market and some of the leading manufacturers seem to agree.

For example, the Chevy Bolt. Yes, it has 230+ miles of range and its technology is commendable. So why has it been a flop in the market, with GM selling them at a loss to get them off dealers lots? It's because the Bolt's features, value, and cost are off balance.

GM chose the sub-compact Gamma platform for the car which is designed for the European and Asian markets, stuck an expensive 60kWh battery in it, and ended up with a $42K car with a package that just does not pass the value test. (sure they have a $36K version, but that car fails the value test even more).

The Tesla Model 3 faces a similar issue. Despite its record setting pre-order interest, it is even more off balance both for Tesla and those that have expressed an interest in obtaining the car based on the illusion of it being a $35K vehicle. Tesla admits the real entry point is more like $45K, and that is the ASP that the majority of Model 3s will be sold at. Technically and stylistically the Model 3 is a nice effort, but it is off balance in that it is beyond the means of a good chunk of those that have put down reservations.

Then there is the new LEAF. I suspect that Nissan understands their target market very well, and knows that the sweet spot for them is having a well-equipped car with reliability, style, and value that starts under $30K and maxes out at $36K. If that means offering an EV that has a slightly shorter range to achieve that balance that is what they will do. But they will also ride the cost curve and continue to add value for the price points their market demands. So with that in mind, I expect that as soon as they can offer a 230+ mile version that fits in their value space and they can make money doing it, they will.
Well said! The further down the cost chain that all manufacturers go, the greater the number of customers that can be accessed. We're seeing this will used Leafs. Unfortunately, all manufactures DO NOT currently have capacity to produce enough batteries or vehicles at the $15-$20,000 cost with 150-200 mi range. I hope that Tesla's 400,000 reservations actually pushes the rest of the manufactures to realize that EVs are the future and to actually make them compelling and cost effective at the 150-200 mi range.
Reddy
2011 SL; 9 bar, 45.80 AHr; 45,000 mi; rcv'd Aug 18, 2011
Long: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... al#p226115"
Cold: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p243033"

Return to “LEAF Gen 2 & Infiniti EV”