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OrientExpress
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Leaf Number: 2331
Location: San Jose, Ca

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:50 pm

evnow wrote:
OrientExpress wrote:Now they are saying that "customer" production won't start until January.
Wow - everyone on TMC and the internet missed this news. My Model 3 delivery times are same too.

Link ?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/TeslaMo ... 966813464/
2018 LEAF SL
Gun Metalic
Delivery April 10 2018

Prior LEAF:
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
50,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:24 pm

OrientExpress wrote:
evnow wrote:
OrientExpress wrote:Now they are saying that "customer" production won't start until January.
Wow - everyone on TMC and the internet missed this news. My Model 3 delivery times are same too.

Link ?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/TeslaMo ... 966813464/
You mean this - from someone not even related to Tesla ? Anyway, October is not new at all - everyone knows employees would get priority (announced before reservations opened).
There won't be any cars going to the public to sometime in probably late October which is still a couple months away.
Where is the link to Tesla saying "customer production won't start until January" ?
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:27 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:A big outfit like Nissan probably looks at how much they spent replacing batteries in warm climates vs how much TMS would add to the cost of every car and concludes they're better off without it.
That makes sense - and they continuously improve thermal perf of batteries.

This is also the reason I think 60 kWh Leaf is not close by. If they get the battery from LG, it probably needs TMS.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

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Nubo
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Location: Vallejo, CA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:38 pm

OrientExpress wrote:...
I would also speculate that the proof of [better battery] will be if the battery warranty on the new car is better than in past years.
+1!
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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OrientExpress
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:08 pm

Where is the link to Tesla saying "customer production won't start until January" ?


Here is the link, it is just going to happen, stuff like this and especially of the magnitude that Tesla wants to ramp production in a plant that is still under construction on schedule is very very very hard to do, so a one-quarter slip is perfectly understandable.

However, I believe that a slip of two-quarters or more is not out of the question. I find it interesting today with everyone reporting their August sales/deliveries that the silence from Tesla is almost deafening.

I went flying a few weeks ago around the valley and flew over the Tesla plant in Fremont. If you look closely, you see that stuff is happening everywhere outside the plant and there is all sorts of construction going on. Check out in the lower left of the photo there is a 10-20 story building going up there that is going to stage all the parts for the cars being built all by robots. It isn't even built yet. Not shown, the massive warehouse facility in Pleasington/Livermore, and of course the Gigafactory. Don't forget staffing, training and all that HR stuff.

This is why I believe that Tesla is rolling the dice that all of these projects going on are going to mesh well enough to produce 100K Model 3s next year. This I gotta see.

Image
2018 LEAF SL
Gun Metalic
Delivery April 10 2018

Prior LEAF:
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
50,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

DanCar
Posts: 1043
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:00 am
Delivery Date: 10 Mar 2013
Location: SF Bay area, 94043

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:35 pm

Would appreciate a link. Thanks.
OrientExpress wrote:Here is the link, it is just going to happen, stuff like this and especially of the magnitude that Tesla wants to ramp production in a plant that is still under construction on schedule is very very very hard to do, so a one-quarter slip is perfectly understandable.

However, I believe that a slip of two-quarters or more is not out of the question. I find it interesting today with everyone reporting their August sales/deliveries that the silence from Tesla is almost deafening.

I went flying a few weeks ago around the valley and flew over the Tesla plant in Fremont. If you look closely, you see that stuff is happening everywhere outside the plant and there is all sorts of construction going on. Check out in the lower left of the photo there is a 10-20 story building going up there that is going to stage all the parts for the cars being built all by robots. It isn't even built yet. Not shown, the massive warehouse facility in Pleasington/Livermore, and of course the Gigafactory. Don't forget staffing, training and all that HR stuff.

This is why I believe that Tesla is rolling the dice that all of these projects going on are going to mesh well enough to produce 100K Model 3s next year. This I gotta see.

Image
2013 Leaf SL leased 3/10/2013

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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:35 pm

OrientExpress wrote:
Where is the link to Tesla saying "customer production won't start until January" ?


Here is the link, it is just going to happen, stuff like this and especially of the magnitude that Tesla wants to ramp production in a plant that is still under construction on schedule is very very very hard to do, so a one-quarter slip is perfectly understandable.

However, I believe that a slip of two-quarters or more is not out of the question. I find it interesting today with everyone reporting their August sales/deliveries that the silence from Tesla is almost deafening.
The correct terminology in that case is NOT "Tesla is saying" but "I guess" or "I bet".

There are a hundred auto industry experts claiming Tesla can't do ABC - only for Tesla to do exactly ABC.

Here is my personal belief that I wrote in the Model 3 thread.
It is fair to say Model 3s are not being sold to customers who are free to talk about their car - so, Jul/Aug/Sep deliveries are really internal, even if employees are paying for the cars. We should see Tesla owners get to configure cars shortly - and those deliveries should start in October. If they don't then, Tesla would be behind the schedule Musk tweeted out sometime back.

I personally always assumed Tesla would be at this stage (i.e. soft deliveries) in December. Tesla seems to be ahead by 5 or 6 months from that assumption, so its good. I add 3 months to whatever delivery schedule they are showing for me now - and if they deliver by then, I'd consider it great.

Even so, in the large scheme of things 3 or 6 months delay is mostly meaningless. What would be the share of EVs in the car market in 5 or 10 years ? That's what matters.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

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OrientExpress
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:49 pm

So you say Tomato and I say tomato. But it's the same thing.

And Tesla is actually saying what you and I both concede is happening. The question is if can they mange their ramp burn to actually be in the long game. They only have about 12 months to do that.
2018 LEAF SL
Gun Metalic
Delivery April 10 2018

Prior LEAF:
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
50,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

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Nubo
Posts: 5848
Joined: Fri May 28, 2010 11:01 am
Delivery Date: 31 Oct 2014
Location: Vallejo, CA

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:28 pm

evnow wrote:I personally always assumed Tesla would be at this stage (i.e. soft deliveries) in December. Tesla seems to be ahead by 5 or 6 months from that assumption, so its good. I add 3 months to whatever delivery schedule they are showing for me now - and if they deliver by then, I'd consider it great.

Even so, in the large scheme of things 3 or 6 months delay is mostly meaningless. What would be the share of EVs in the car market in 5 or 10 years ? That's what matters.
Part of what matters is their history of missing timelines. Now, the early adopters are much more forgiving in this regard. But as they transition to mass-market they need to be a little more serious and stop promising things they can't deliver. No more Model X style rollouts. Under-promise, over-deliver.... Real artists ship, and other proverbs :) Meeting this schedule (for real) would be a big boost to their credibility as an automobile manufacturer.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

edatoakrun
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:08 pm

Post TSLA crap on TSLA threads, please.

New Nissan LEAF World Premier

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7QxQGHx0Uo

Live video by Youtube
<Information>

Live Schedule: 1:25 - 2:00(GMT) / 9:25 - 10:00 (JST), September 6 *Subject to Change
*This page is English audio stream (Click here for Japanese audio stream)

Live Channel
http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/NISSANC ... room2.html
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