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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:24 pm
by GRA
GetOffYourGas wrote: FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?
Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.
GetOffYourGas wrote: On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Nissan gave us a slight bump in battery size for 2016/2017, just to hold us over. It would be a mid-cycle refresh, given they said the current cycle began in 2013. I'm just not expecting much. Maybe an honest 100 EPA miles. That's a 19% increase. Not terrible. For reference, the battery in the 2016 Volt holds 15% more energy than the 2011 Volt.
The 'current' cycle began in 2010 (2011 MY), with the 2013 being the mid-cycle refresh. Except for adding some features to the 'S', Nissan hasn't made any major changes to the LEAF since then (barring any improvement the Lizard battery may provide). IMO it's unlikely they'll upgrade the pack capacity for 2016 - I think they'll just run out the current model until the next gen arrives. The current competitors are close enough to it in range (with the Soul and Spark having a small but real advantage), and given Nissan's behavior to date I don't see their corporate execs feeling they need a capacity increase in this generation. They'd much rather sell people the next gen cars.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:35 pm
by dm33
GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote: FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?
Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.
The Kia and VW so far look like compliance cars.

Only Nissan LEAF, BMW i3, Tesla Model S so far are serious nationwide BEVs.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:39 pm
by GRA
dm33 wrote:
GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote: FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?
Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.
The Kia and VW so far look like compliance cars.

Only Nissan LEAF, BMW i3, Tesla Model S so far are serious nationwide BEVs.
Seeing as how at least 40% of all PEVs are sold in California and the CARB-ZEV states take most of the rest, big deal.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:43 pm
by evnow
GRA wrote:Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.
LOL. Have you seen the list of cars that outsold Soul EV in December ?

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:47 pm
by GRA
evnow wrote:
GRA wrote:Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.
LOL. Have you seen the list of cars that outsold Soul EV in December ?
Sure. And I'm also aware of how many I've seen locally already in the Bay Area, even though they've only been on sale for a few months.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:48 pm
by evnow
GRA wrote:Seeing as how at least 40% of all PEVs are sold in California and the CARB-ZEV states take most of the rest, big deal.
Ofcourse it is a big deal. Not sold in a vast majority of top 10 states.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:49 pm
by evnow
GRA wrote:Sure. And I'm also aware of how many I've seen locally already in the Bay Area, even though they've only been on sale for a few months.
You should get out more often. There is a big world out there outside the Bay Area.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:54 pm
by GRA
evnow wrote:
GRA wrote:Sure. And I'm also aware of how many I've seen locally already in the Bay Area, even though they've only been on sale for a few months.
You should get out more often. There is a big world out there outside the Bay Area.
Sure, but since the Bay Area is either #1 or #2 for total # of PEVs sold and % of PEVs sold, and we have that 40% of all PEVs for the state as a whole, it's clear that what happens here represents a major portion of PEV trends and impact.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:47 pm
by minispeed
GRA wrote:
evnow wrote:
GRA wrote:Sure. And I'm also aware of how many I've seen locally already in the Bay Area, even though they've only been on sale for a few months.
You should get out more often. There is a big world out there outside the Bay Area.
Sure, but since the Bay Area is either #1 or #2 for total # of PEVs sold and % of PEVs sold, and we have that 40% of all PEVs for the state as a whole, it's clear that what happens here represents a major portion of PEV trends and impact.

Possibly it's just the environment, state incentives, peoples' driving needs, environmental priorities and level of average income that tend to slot in nicely with what the current offerings are.

When we start to talk gen 2 BEV's with 150-200 mile of range for the cost of a stripped down Leaf S now the market will open up to a lot of people. Any of the major auto manufactures know that competing with each other for a slice of existing BEV market share is peanuts compared to taking it from the ICE market share and for that they have to pay close attention not to what the largest BEV markets want but the areas they haven't tapped into yet.

Nissan has already said it will move the leaf to a more traditional look away from the uniqueness that may have been to the taste of a lot of those bay area people. Chevy has already shown a new volt that to me does not say alternative at all. I've read reports that BMW is on the fence, depending on how well the i3 sells they may make the next electric a traditional bmw instead of expand the i brand or release an i5 which could or could not be alternative. I've also seen many guesses to an i5 that is basically a four door i3 but with no quote or interview with BMW so I pay little attention to that.

While the bay area will probably always be a higher % of BEV sales than the rest of the country the potential for total sales everywhere else far exceeds it.

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:50 am
by dhanson865
GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote: FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?
Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.
Said like a true Californian.

"Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."

So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition.

Though I hear they are selling it all over Canada, and parts of Europe.
They are selling it nationally here in Canada.
Yes, if by nationally you mean in 6-10 dealerships spread across three provinces. Each dealership allotted 1-2 Soul EVs per month until the supply of 50-60 units runs out.

so how about that e-Golf by VW?
According to VW, the E-Golf vehicle will be available “only at participating Volkswagen dealers in select states.” California dealerships are most likely to have inventory, but shoppers in these states should check with local dealers to confirm participation: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Gee, maybe 5 more states in the list but still not my state so again not an option.