GRA
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:54 pm

I'll reply to all three of your posted replies to me here.
GRA wrote:
dhanson865 wrote: "Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."

So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition.
Uh huh, and in those states where it is being sold, it is. So, the above states have an estimated 2014 population of 77.434 million out of an estimated U.S. population (50 states + D.C.) of 318.86 million, or 24.3%. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. ... erritories
GRA wrote:
dhanson865 wrote: According to VW, the e-Golf vehicle will be available “only at participating Volkswagen dealers in select states.” California dealerships are most likely to have inventory, but shoppers in these states should check with local dealers to confirm participation: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Adding states ranking 14th, 29th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th, upping the total population to 90.788 million, or 28.5% of the U.S. population (states plus D.C.)
dhanson865 wrote:
GRA wrote:
dhanson865 wrote: Gee, maybe 5 more states in the list but still not my state so again not an option.
I feel for you, but as you can see, the Soul EV and/or e-Golf are direct competition to the LEAF in around a quarter of the country, and in most of the states with the highest PEV sales. Pity they're missing Hawaii, Washington and Florida, Minnesota, Colorado and maybe Tennesee. OTOH, they do conform pretty closely to this sales prediction for 2022 by ievs: http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 25-states/

Oddly enough, I've been having great difficulty finding a site that lists the current sales by state.
So by your own numbers 72-75% of the country can't buy one but you think that's competition for Nissan to be concerned about. Wow. You make my case for me and still ignore it.

Tesla makes an expensive EV and Nissan makes a cheap EV. No other 50 state competition unless you want to bring the regular Prius into the mix.

Note I'm not talking Plug in Prius, the PiP isn't available for a reasonable price outside of those few states again. So for ~75% of us the PiP doesn't exist as an option either. Not even as a used car, I can get a used Leaf around $10,000 now and a used PiP for about $19,000. At roughly twice the price it just isn't an option.
As to only being available for about 25% of the country, I think that's fine. Limited-range BEVs make zero zense at the moment in large, cold rural states with no major urban areas, so forget Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. Minnesota probably gets BEVs in the Twin Cities and nowhere else in numbers, so they don't lose much there either. Wisconsin? Madison and maybe Milwaukee. Illinois would rack up some sales, but again, it's cold there and we know that the current crop of non-Tesla cars are poorly suited for the climate (Soul might have an advantage here). I don't think they lose much in Michigan, Ohio or Indiana at the moment either, or Pennsylvania. As for the New England states, they're small enough and close enough to major urban areas that they can work reasonably well there. The plains states see few BEV sales, so no reason to bother. I do think that Kia, at least, is missing a trick in Hawaii.

The other question is do Kia and especially VW want to introduce their BEVs in a high temp state? Although the Soul does have some battery cooling, VW decided to do without late in the design process. They say that their tests show they don't need it, but then Nissan said the same, and we know how that worked out - Florida and Georgia LEAFs shoud be hitting their 2nd or 3rd summer this year, and we'll see what happens.

Maybe Kia and VW are just being conservative for now. For hot climates, I think they're probably better to give it a miss at the moment, so that let's out states in the southern tier, which include Florida and Georgia. Georgia may be a mistake, but we'll have to see when, as seems almost certain, the subsidies are reduced this year. Will it work the same way that it did in California, a surge of sales before they run out, followed by a lull for some months before they increase again, or will they drop low and stay low? IOW, are BEVs going to have staying power there, or are they purely subsidy driven, because apparently at their current level you can drive a car for nothing for a couple of years on a lease.

Staying out of Florida could be a mistake too, but again I'd rather they do that and not suffer a major problem with heat-related degradation than take a chance and fail spectacularly, as Nissan did.
dhanson865 wrote: and really you pick http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 25-states/ for your per state data. It's a projection for 7 years in the future.

How about real data like

Image

any "competitor" that isn't selling in Atlanta Georgia right now isn't a serious competitor.
See my comments above.
dhanson865 wrote: Kia Soul in California (3rd), Oregon(5th), New York(unranked), New Jersey(unranked) and Maryland(unranked)
while leaving out

#1 Washington ST
#2 Hawaii
#4 Georgia
#6 Washington DC
#7 Utah
#8 Colorado
#9 Tennessee
#10 Illinois
Yes, Washington and Hawaii are the major missing pieces where weather isn't likely to be an issue. Tennessee seems to be solely due to the LEAF being made there and Nissan's major effort to put CHAdeMO in the state.
dhanson865 wrote: VW adds: Connecticut (unranked), Maine(unranked), Massachusetts(unranked), Rhode Island(unranked), and Vermont(unranked)
and still misses 7 of the top 10 states.
BTW, VW is selling the e-Golf in DC; not sure about the Soul.
dhanson865 wrote:and if you want to peek at partial year data first half of 2014 looks like

Image

With Georgia #1 and California #2 fighting for first place.
Washington ST dropping to #3
Hawaii dropping to #4
and Connecticut joining the list in the #10 slot after Washington DC dropped off the list.

also notice that cheap gas prices seem to be slowing sales of EVs
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

TimLee
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:31 am

GRA wrote:... Tennessee seems to be solely due to the LEAF being made there and Nissan's major effort to put CHAdeMO in the state.
...
Nissan's substantial effort has only been in the Nashville area where their headquarters are located.

Their effort in the other three major cities and a few smaller cities has been limited to the dealer CHAdeMO units.

The inadequate too far apart and no redundancy Blink units on the Interstates was entirely funded by the EVProject.

But the substantial sales % is 85% driven by the Nashville area so you are partially correct but it is not state wide.

Tim Lee
Chattanooga, TN

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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:13 pm

dhanson865 wrote:I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.
Data based ... what a concept !

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 39#p406439" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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minispeed
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:26 pm

Just got back from the North American International Auto Show and low and behold no Kia Soul EV.

I asked about it and the woman told me they had one there for press day but took it away after. Maybe the actions of a company selling compliance cars but also wants the green advertising benefit nation wide.

That's not what if expect from a company behind EVs.

Kinda disappointing that Nissan just had the leaf parked in the corner with no info around it. It wasn't even plugged in compared to almost all other plug in cars being shown side by side with an EVSE. Fords weren't but at least the FFE had a big sticker on the side to identify it as a BEV.
However Nissan was all about the Titan there. The only other car to get any promo value was the gtr.

E golf and MB B class were both there. Volvo plug in xc90 was really nice!
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claude274
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:01 am

Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.

Moof
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:28 am

Rumor mill seems to be split between MY2017 and MY2018. Fall of 2016 is probably a decent possibility for a MY2017 revamp showing up, but it could easily be a year after that for all anyone knows.
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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:42 pm

Moof wrote:Rumor mill seems to be split between MY2017 and MY2018. Fall of 2016 is probably a decent possibility for a MY2017 revamp showing up, but it could easily be a year after that for all anyone knows.
Clearly it makes sense to bring the car earlier rather than later, given that competitors are bringing similar vehicles in 2017. If the car is not here in 2016 - Leaf sales will seriously suffer ...

But, we don't know where Nissan is in terms of gen 2 development ...
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TomT
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:45 pm

Bottom line is that no one knows for sure...
claude274 wrote:Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:51 pm

claude274 wrote:Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
Lease - for 2 years.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
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claude274
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:20 pm

evnow wrote:
claude274 wrote:Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
Lease - for 2 years.
In that case, I will keep my car for another 2 years!

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