dhanson865
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:33 pm

evnow wrote:
dhanson865 wrote:I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.
Data based ... what a concept !

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 39#p406439" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
garbled data, garbled interpretation.

gas prices may or may not be a significant factor but even if they are they are shadowed by:

HOV stickers (people will buy HOV vehicles ignoring the cost of gas)
State rebates/incentives (that distort the cost of the EV vs other states)

So you pretty much have to find a state or states that don't have larger forcing to cull your data from and ignore the data from the states that are heavily influenced enough to ignore gas prices.

The article in that thread purely tries to make the case that national gas prices don't affect national EV sales. I can't argue with that. I just don't think that's a useful interpretation of the available data.
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GRA
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:39 pm

dhanson865 wrote:
evnow wrote:
dhanson865 wrote:I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.
Data based ... what a concept !

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 39#p406439" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
garbled data, garbled interpretation.

gas prices may or may not be a significant factor but even if they are they are shadowed by:

HOV stickers (people will buy HOV vehicles ignoring the cost of gas)
State rebates/incentives (that distort the cost of the EV vs other states)

So you pretty much have to find a state or states that don't have larger forcing to cull your data from and ignore the data from the states that are heavily influenced enough to ignore gas prices.

The article in that thread purely tries to make the case that national gas prices don't affect national EV sales. I can't argue with that. I just don't think that's a useful interpretation of the available data.
OTOH, I have seen a European (IIRR) study that compared interest in EVs based on surveys with gas prices over the course of many years, and there was a direct relationship between them: when prices went up so did interest, and vice-versa, so I doubt we've seen final proof one way or the other. Certainly the sale of larger vehicles here has increased as gas prices dropped.
Last edited by GRA on Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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edatoakrun
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:19 am

Some very strong hints from Nissan as to when and how far.

I'm guessing the time frame is right, and it will be more than a "mild refresh".

But I doubt it will have a base range ~twice that of the 2013-2015 LEAF.

I'm guessing Nissan will produce a BEV with ~that range, but it will be from (either or both) an optional pack/efficiency upgrade on the LEAF base model, or a separate upmarket Nissan/Infiniti model.

I'm still expecting the base LEAF to be priced at ~ the same level as gen 1, which will probably limit the EPA range to ~120-140 miles.
...At the Detroit Motor Show, Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn dropped a few heavy hints. Today, we came as close to confirmation as possible at this point in time. In a press conference at Nissan’s Yokohama HQ, Nissan’s dapper Japan Chief Takao Katagiri told reporters to expect “a more efficient EV with an improved battery” during Nissan’s fiscal 2016, which goes from April 1 2016 through March 31 2017. In the “a picture says more than a thousand words” dept., a slide Katagiri put up against the wall during his remarks was more forthcoming...

The slide shows a 2011 Leaf with a range of 200km, followed by a 2013 Leaf with 228km, followed by a mysterious unnamed vehicle with an unspecified, but much longer range. I obtained a copy of the slide, and measured the arrow. It is exactly twice as long as the arrow depicting the range of the 2013 Leaf. Mind you: We are in Japan, the land of high precision.

228 km (141miles) times two would be 456km, or 283 miles. Of course, this is according to the hopelessly optimistic Japanese JC08 standard. However, it is a safe assumption that the new Leaf will get double whatever range it currently gets. Did I say Leaf? The name of that new range-doubling EV is not announced. It could be Leaf, it could be anything. The car on the chart has a distinct Leaf-like silhouette, though.

Katagiri ominously and repeatedly mentioned “evolution and renewal” of Nissan’s EV program in the fiscal 2016 timeframe, leaving the door open to anything, from a mild refresh to a completely new car, or both....
http://dailykanban.com/2015/01/today-he ... leaf-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:47 am

edatoakrun wrote:
I obtained a copy of the slide, and measured the arrow. It is exactly twice as long as the arrow depicting the range of the 2013 Leaf. Mind you: We are in Japan, the land of high precision.
http://dailykanban.com/2015/01/today-he ... leaf-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Using the picture in the linked article, I too measured the arrow. It is about double the 2013 arrow. But the 2013 is about double the 2011 arrow. What does that mean? Well it means that the left hand side does not represent zero. It could imply that rather than double the range of the 2013, it is actually just double the gain from 2011 to 2013. So this new car would have 284km range.

Of course, all of this is assuming that the arrows are to scale. My numbers further assume that instead of the left-hand side representing zero, it actually represents 172km (200km - 28km).

This timeline would imply that the 2016 Leaf will remain unchanged from the 2015. I was expecting MYs 2016/2017 to be a minor refresh (maybe with a slightly better range), and the Leaf 2 to arrive as a MY 2018. Maybe they will skip the refresh and turn over a new Leaf in 2017. Whom do we have to thank for this? The Tesla Model III? GM Bolt? Simply better tech available?
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minispeed
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:41 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
Using the picture in the linked article, I too measured the arrow. It is about double the 2013 arrow. But the 2013 is about double the 2011 arrow. What does that mean? Well it means that the left hand side does not represent zero. It could imply that rather than double the range of the 2013, quoactually just double the gain from 2011 to 2013. So this new car would have 284km range.

Of course, all of this is assuming that the arrows are to scale. My numbers further assume that instead of the left-hand side representing zero, it actually represents 172km (200km - 28km).

This timeline would imply that the 2016 Leaf will remain unchanged from the 2015. I was expecting MYs 2016/2017 to be a minor refresh (maybe with a slightly better range), and the Leaf 2 to arrive as a MY 2018. Maybe they will skip the refresh and turn over a new Leaf in 2017. Whom do we have to thank for this? The Tesla Model III? GM Bolt? Simply better tech available?

I still secretly hope that this current leaf will continue with upgrades. Maybe expand the pack into the floor of the trunk which is lower than it has to be, restyle everything on the outside but keep the basic shape and chassis and work to bring costs down to the pre incentive price of $24k with 100 mile range and release a brand new second gen BEV to sell along side it at the $30-$35K price range with double the range.

VW did it with the golf (might have been Canada only) the 2005 golf became the 2006 (years may be off by a bit) "city golf" then the rabbit came out at a premium price. Both sold pretty well. They could also borrow that name, "city leaf" sounds good.

All this would need is the us plant keeps making the city leaf and the Japanese plant can be retooled for the new one or move the old one to Mexico and make new ones in the US.
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claude274
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:54 am

Sh.... That doesn't help me much knowing if I'll buy a new one now. :cry: Being sure it would be fall 2016 I would wait. Mid 2017 is a bit long.

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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:32 pm

dhanson865 wrote:garbled data, garbled interpretation.
Oh really ? If the reason is what you give below - your assertion has little credibility.
gas prices may or may not be a significant factor but even if they are they are shadowed by:

HOV stickers (people will buy HOV vehicles ignoring the cost of gas)
State rebates/incentives (that distort the cost of the EV vs other states)

So you pretty much have to find a state or states that don't have larger forcing to cull your data from and ignore the data from the states that are heavily influenced enough to ignore gas prices.

The article in that thread purely tries to make the case that national gas prices don't affect national EV sales. I can't argue with that. I just don't think that's a useful interpretation of the available data.
All those other stuff don't change month-to-month.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

claude274
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:19 pm

So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?

Moof
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:22 pm

claude274 wrote:So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
Lease for 2 years, buy used, or wait 2 years. Buying new outright at the moment looks pretty foolish to me at the moment
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fotajoye
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:48 pm

Moof wrote:
claude274 wrote:So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
Lease for 2 years, buy used, or wait 2 years. Buying new outright at the moment looks pretty foolish to me at the moment
In the ICE world, the best tactic was to buy a low mileage, used car, hopefully still under warranty. The question in doing this with a Leaf is whether there is a reasonably priced, long range battery available for the MY you buy. The only traction batteries available for a Leaf at this time are short range and that question is still to be answered. So far we only have PR vapor promises from Nissan...everything's gotta be a secret with theses guys you know...jeezes!

Additionally, I will be very surprised if the Republican Congress extends EV purchase incentives; I hope I'm wrong; but, I don't hold out much hope or trust politicians that is so dependent on the hydrocarbons industries for campaign contributions.

I don't know all your conditions of purchase; but, if you can wait, that's what I would do until things shake out, especially if you can save money by doing so.

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