DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Economics of long range Leaf

Mon Oct 06, 2014 1:55 pm

I for one would drive less EV with a Volt. I "might" look at possibly a 4-5 mile buffer but to be honest with ya, I would only do it if the distance of the destination was compliant. I see VLB almost daily. It does not bother me... Heck I even saw Turtle last week for the first time EVER (that was not planned)

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2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 14,342.8 mi, 93.16% SOH
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minispeed
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Re: Economics of long range Leaf

Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:00 am

evnow wrote: I suggest creating a new thread for the idea of a LEAF REx (if you see older threads, I've argued for such a vehicles).

Now back on topic.

Why steer the converstaion like that because people are bringing up a point you don't like? This is the internet, you can't ride it like a horse, it will go where it goes, if you try....

Image

I went back and read your first post. If you truely want to talk about the economics of batteries then your thread of "Economics of long range Leaf" should have been worded differently.

A REx option, or even REx trailer would make a leaf have a longer range. You didn't say "battery only range".

This is not off topic, it has spun a little bit but it is related. Economics isn't just how much it costs but how many you can sell it for and at what profit to satisfy market demand. As the demand increases your ability to charge a profit increase. From what others have said (not all but enough to make it worthy in the discussion) is that they would consider spending money on a REx which would mean Nissan has the potential to sell less BEVs if another car maker gives them what they want with a REx. You cannot consider the economics of spending $X to extend the range of the leaf by Y miles without comparing it to alternatives. We know what BMW charges for the REx, others have said it is $3850. What we don't know is how much it costs them. Is that $2850 of profit? $1500? Based on common sense though I think we can all agree the REx costs less than $3850.

Can anyone tell me what the nissan battery costs them right now? If so then it's news to me. Everything I have read and heard says that the current $5500 for a battery pack is still being sold at a loss and I don't doubt them on that, do you? Is it $6000, $7000 or even $10000? Yes the 2nd gen battery will be better. Cheaper is part of the improvment they are looking for but it does not guarantee that it will be less than the current replacement cost and your $200 per kwhr number is still just a target. We have no idea how close to that they are now and what gamble they are willing to take.

To get back to your original post. I do not think that Nissan can build a car that gets 200 miles with a 60kwhr pack at $200 per kwhr in 2016 and make a profit at $35K. They may be willing to build it at a loss to start with or it may be bare bones and never available in base trim and realistically cost $42. (for example try to find a base Porsche on a dealer lot, they are almost mythical) As a consumer I would rather buy a car that got 100miles all electric with a REx option added for under $4000. If that got me to $35 I'd be happy. However I think if they could sell a 200mile car at $35 they could sell a 100 mile car for a much cheaper advertised price than $31. I wanted the i3 but it was way too small to put child seats in, I considered a volt but just a bit lacking in elec range for every day and only 4 seats. If the fusion energi gave volt range I would have bought it. From everything Nissan has said and invested in I do not think they will build a REx before anyone else builds one that cuts into leaf sales.

So far we have seen 2 REx type cars, volt and i3. Each has it's merits and each is at oposite ends of a pole. Low elec range high ICE performance, high elec range low ICE performance. Time will only make that even out. I doubt BEV's will dominate automotive sales without the government steping in while I'm alive. Even at 200 or 300 miles of range there will be customers who would still chose a REx if offered. I think one of 3 things has to happen before BEVs take hold. 650 mile range, charge in 5hrs (road trip, 10hrs at 60mph 50 buffer most people won't want to drive more than that ever), the majority of drivers grew up with their parents plugging in cars that it will feel normal or enough people switch to REx cars that gas stations start to close down.
2015 White SV, after one month 292 GIDS
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evnow
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Re: Economics of long range Leaf

Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:45 am

minispeed wrote:
evnow wrote: I suggest creating a new thread for the idea of a LEAF REx (if you see older threads, I've argued for such a vehicles).

Now back on topic.
Why steer the converstaion like that because people are bringing up a point you don't like? This is the internet, you can't ride it like a horse, it will go where it goes, if you try....
Because that is a different topic - since as we all know Leaf is a BEV. Just because you don't like the idea of BEV long range doesn't mean you can derail this thread.

I'll be creating a new Leaf Rex thread and moving relevant posts to that ...
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

adric22
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:05 am

Well, it appears the new thread is created.

It looks to me as if BMW is selling more Rex models than BEV. So, I'm sure Nissan has taken notice. I am not sure I can give an exact probability, but I think there is a chance the next generation Leaf will have an optional range extender. And think about it. Making it an option like BMW has done is the smartest thing you can do. That way you can appeal to the "purists" who want a BEV, and also appeal to the arguably larger crowd who want the Rex. I would absolutely spend $4,000 extra on a Leaf if it meant getting a Rex that could take the Leaf another 100 miles on gasoline. I could, in theory, drive the Leaf across country like that.
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evnow
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:03 am

adric22 wrote:It looks to me as if BMW is selling more Rex models than BEV. So, I'm sure Nissan has taken notice.
But the question might be - if i3 had an optional 200 mile BEV, would the REx still sell more than BEV ? I doubt it.
I am not sure I can give an exact probability, but I think there is a chance the next generation Leaf will have an optional range extender. And think about it. Making it an option like BMW has done is the smartest thing you can do.

I agree it would be a smart option, as it increases the market.

But, I'd put the odds to be less than 1%.

REx is born out of a conviction that EVs aren't practical - something Ghosn doesn't buy into.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

minispeed
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:22 pm

evnow wrote:
adric22 wrote:It looks to me as if BMW is selling more Rex models than BEV. So, I'm sure Nissan has taken notice.
But the question might be - if i3 had an optional 200 mile BEV, would the REx still sell more than BEV ? I doubt it.
I am not sure I can give an exact probability, but I think there is a chance the next generation Leaf will have an optional range extender. And think about it. Making it an option like BMW has done is the smartest thing you can do.

I agree it would be a smart option, as it increases the market.

But, I'd put the odds to be less than 1%.

REx is born out of a conviction that EVs aren't practical - something Ghosn doesn't buy into.

It's hard to look at the REx sales and answer those questions. After all REx is an upsell and people willing to step into a BMW dealer are probably more able to be upsold. It could be possible that the dealers are given the same profit on both, and I wouldn't doubt it as BMW has projected the image that they want to promote BEVs. If the BMW gave 200 miles and the dealers make a bit of extra profit they would still upsell the REx.

I belive the important part of the REx is in getting those buyers that are afraid of BEV into the show room and eliminating the anti BEV argument of "well your battery will degrade and before your done payments then you can't make your commute anymore" or "in the winter you just won't know if you can make it home". Now the contradiction to what I said before is dealers.... we all know, the devils. If they have a REx to sell and want to upsell it they will actually continue those fears to upsell the REx. It will take the full ownership experience for the buyer to decide if they needed it or not. If it gets more people into electric driving and doesn't cause a public charger access war then it's a good thing.

I know Ghosh doesn't buy into it which is why I think that Nissan won't do it first, but for him to truely support growth he's got to then buy into charging. IE Nissan USA/Canada tell dealers you have to give us space to operate and maintain our quick chargers on your property with 24/7 access and if you park your dealer cars there we will fine you. They then have to have a team that will fix quick chargers within a day. They can partner up like Tesla has and put them at non dealers too. The REx makes the home charger the only one you "need". All the others are a bonus.
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evnow
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:50 pm

minispeed wrote:I know Ghosh doesn't buy into it which is why I think that Nissan won't do it first, but for him to truely support growth he's got to then buy into charging. IE Nissan USA/Canada tell dealers you have to give us space to operate and maintain our quick chargers on your property with 24/7 access and if you park your dealer cars there we will fine you. They then have to have a team that will fix quick chargers within a day. They can partner up like Tesla has and put them at non dealers too. The REx makes the home charger the only one you "need". All the others are a bonus.
A good way to compare super charger & CHAdeMO is IPhone vs Android.

Proprietary, better quality control on Superchargers (iPhone). Open & lower reliability of individual chargers on CHAdeMO (Android). But, if CHAdeMO becomes ubiquitous - that can trump proprietary network and build reliability based on redundancy.

The same way, gas stations have become now.

BTW, what you re suggesting Nissan should do is illegal in the US (most states).
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
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kubel
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:07 pm

A 100 mile EV with a range extender and CHAdeMO would be nice, but I think I would rather have a 200-mile EV with access to SuperChargers.
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evnow
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:18 pm

kubel wrote:A 100 mile EV with a range extender and CHAdeMO would be nice, but I think I would rather have a 200-mile EV with access to SuperChargers.
Personally I'd like to have a 200 mile BEV with supercharger & CHAdeMO access. We have a lot of area covered by CHAdeMO and no Superchargers, here in the PNW.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
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ydnas7
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Re: Leaf REx ?

Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:38 pm

adric22 wrote:Well, it appears the new thread is created.

It looks to me as if BMW is selling more Rex models than BEV. So, I'm sure Nissan has taken notice. I am not sure I can give an exact probability, but I think there is a chance the next generation Leaf will have an optional range extender. And think about it. Making it an option like BMW has done is the smartest thing you can do. That way you can appeal to the "purists" who want a BEV, and also appeal to the arguably larger crowd who want the Rex. I would absolutely spend $4,000 extra on a Leaf if it meant getting a Rex that could take the Leaf another 100 miles on gasoline. I could, in theory, drive the Leaf across country like that.

Nissan/Mitsubishi etc any Japanese car company that does kei car could make a dual axle PHEV with a kei drivetrain at one end, and an EV drivetrain at the other.
but why bother, Tesla isn't doing that, because they seek high margin, high demand products....

BMW's iREX is crippled, it has less range using petrol than the lowest level Tesla...
perhaps if it had a real petrol tank, it would be different, but it doesn't.

Infiniti could do high EV range PHEV, perhaps even in serial hybrid mode like BMW iREX. perhaps. You'll get Mitsubishi PHEVs soon enough, and if you look under the rear, its all open and vacant, plenty of space for additional batteries/fuel tanks etc. (seriously, I expect 3rd party fuel tanks for the Mitsubishi Outlander before there are 3rd party booster batteries.)

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