sredlin
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:43 pm

bbrowncods wrote:Replacing a battery pack or putting new cells in it, is akin to putting a new engine/transmission into a ICE car for an owner. There will be a demand for new/used batteries but most owners of new cars will have the option of trading for new again. So most battery pack replacements outside of warranties will occur in the used car market. I can see a "we finance here/pay here" dealer buying a Leaf with 4-5-6-7 bars of battery loss and putting a used/near new/new battery in it, and selling for a profit.

For a owner to go into a Nissan dealer and buy a new battery for $6-7K to put into their 7 year old car, when that amount will put a good dent into a new car or lease, I just don't see it happening a lot.

I think most Leafs will be driven/sold/auctioned until the battery is done and then they will go to the junkyard. For those cars that are in great shape, they will be bought by a used car lot for very little, and given new life with a used battery and sold for $500 down/$66 a week payment plan. Which is what happens to ICE cars.
I'm not really sure that "Replacing a battery...is akin to putting a new engine/transmission..."? A battery albeit even a large one doesn't really have any moving parts like an engine/transmission does and while the current costs may be similar, I cannot imagine the labor would be comparable? Therefore if the battery technology advances and the cost of the currently available technology drops significantly as a result of a newer better technology coming to market, then it might make a lot more sense to replace the battery? I recall reading that roughly hald the cost of the 2011 Nissan Leaf was the battery when it first came to market, so that's about $15K, but maybe that was not entirely true, because it's not like there was a Nissan Leaf battery for sale in the marketplace at that time? Anyway, now there is a replacement battery on the market and it supposedly costs $5k-6k. So is that worth the price to restore range? I don't know, maybe for some folks it is? But maybe in 2-3 more years that cost will be half of what it is now, which could make keeping the Leaf and refreshing the battery much more appealing to many folks? All this is speculation of course and only time will tell how it all plays out, but I'm optimistic that maybe it will make economic sense to replace batteries?

bbrowncods
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:33 pm

sredlin wrote: I'm not really sure that "Replacing a battery...is akin to putting a new engine/transmission..."? A battery albeit even a large one doesn't really have any moving parts like an engine/transmission does and while the current costs may be similar, I cannot imagine the labor would be comparable? Therefore if the battery technology advances and the cost of the currently available technology drops significantly as a result of a newer better technology coming to market, then it might make a lot more sense to replace the battery? I recall reading that roughly hald the cost of the 2011 Nissan Leaf was the battery when it first came to market, so that's about $15K, but maybe that was not entirely true, because it's not like there was a Nissan Leaf battery for sale in the marketplace at that time? Anyway, now there is a replacement battery on the market and it supposedly costs $5k-6k. So is that worth the price to restore range? I don't know, maybe for some folks it is? But maybe in 2-3 more years that cost will be half of what it is now, which could make keeping the Leaf and refreshing the battery much more appealing to many folks? All this is speculation of course and only time will tell how it all plays out, but I'm optimistic that maybe it will make economic sense to replace batteries?
In the US as long as there is a 7500 tax credit + state credits there will be little demand to spend thousands for a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery. If my leaf was 7 years old and I had the option to buy it a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery, or a new 150 mile Gen 2 Leaf, I would go with the new Leaf. It just does not make financial sense to put even $4K in a $10K car (never get your money back out of it) when you could put that into a new car and get 7500 tax credit on top of that. Only if batteries were almost free would it make it worthwhile.
2014 Cayenne Red Leaf SL purchased 6/9/2014 (dealer received it on 6/7/2014), manufacture date 4/2014.
7/4/14 -629 miles, Temp 83, SOC 97.5, 59.81 Ahr, SOH 91%, Hx 91.44, 20.2 Kwh, Avg 4.127, High 4.136, Low 4.122, GIDS 267/92.5%.

sredlin
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:02 am

bbrowncods wrote: \
In the US as long as there is a 7500 tax credit + state credits there will be little demand to spend thousands for a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery. If my leaf was 7 years old and I had the option to buy it a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery, or a new 150 mile Gen 2 Leaf, I would go with the new Leaf. It just does not make financial sense to put even $4K in a $10K car (never get your money back out of it) when you could put that into a new car and get 7500 tax credit on top of that. Only if batteries were almost free would it make it worthwhile.
Well that's one opinion, but I don't know that what you consider financial sense is the same way others feel? The fact is all new cars depreciate from the time they are driven off the car lot, so none of them really make much financial sense anyway. So if you already own a Leaf like many do, not everyone will necessarily want to trade it in for a huge loss and go into debt or pay the $15k-20k to cover the cost of a new Leaf if it's possible to spend cash on hand for a battery. The fact that a 5 year old Leaf is worth significantly less at that time is really kind of irrelevant to the conversation of what might make financial sense to people in my opinion. The way I see it, if I can put some money into my 2011 when my range deteriorates to the point that it can't support my commute and restore the range to it's new condition, I will definitely consider it because I don't really want to have a car payment. And if you also consider how much less maintenance costs are involved with a Leaf versus an ICE car over a 5-6 year period, there's no oil changes, or timing belts, etc. so dumping a lump sum of $5k into your old Leaf probably isn't such a bad deal really. So making "financial sense" with or without the tax credit is somewhat subjective in my opinion, for you it doesn't make sense for me it may when the time comes?

forummm
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:21 am

bbrowncods wrote:
sredlin wrote: I'm not really sure that "Replacing a battery...is akin to putting a new engine/transmission..."? A battery albeit even a large one doesn't really have any moving parts like an engine/transmission does and while the current costs may be similar, I cannot imagine the labor would be comparable? Therefore if the battery technology advances and the cost of the currently available technology drops significantly as a result of a newer better technology coming to market, then it might make a lot more sense to replace the battery? I recall reading that roughly hald the cost of the 2011 Nissan Leaf was the battery when it first came to market, so that's about $15K, but maybe that was not entirely true, because it's not like there was a Nissan Leaf battery for sale in the marketplace at that time? Anyway, now there is a replacement battery on the market and it supposedly costs $5k-6k. So is that worth the price to restore range? I don't know, maybe for some folks it is? But maybe in 2-3 more years that cost will be half of what it is now, which could make keeping the Leaf and refreshing the battery much more appealing to many folks? All this is speculation of course and only time will tell how it all plays out, but I'm optimistic that maybe it will make economic sense to replace batteries?
In the US as long as there is a 7500 tax credit + state credits there will be little demand to spend thousands for a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery. If my leaf was 7 years old and I had the option to buy it a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery, or a new 150 mile Gen 2 Leaf, I would go with the new Leaf. It just does not make financial sense to put even $4K in a $10K car (never get your money back out of it) when you could put that into a new car and get 7500 tax credit on top of that. Only if batteries were almost free would it make it worthwhile.
I'd be shocked (pleasantly shocked) if those federal tax credits stayed at $7500 for 7 more years. Nissan is on pace to hit the 200k manufactured in the next few years, which is when the credits phase out under current law.
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heathATL
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:27 am

forummm wrote:I'd be shocked (pleasantly shocked) if those federal tax credits stayed at $7500 for 7 more years. Nissan is on pace to hit the 200k manufactured in the next few years, which is when the credits phase out under current law.
Me too. Also, many people are expecting GA's $5000 credit to be reduced or eliminated. They tried this year (2014), but didn't quite get it done before the end of session. That's why I went ahead and bought my Leaf this month. :)
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sredlin
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:32 am

forummm wrote:
bbrowncods wrote:
sredlin wrote: I'm not really sure that "Replacing a battery...is akin to putting a new engine/transmission..."? A battery albeit even a large one doesn't really have any moving parts like an engine/transmission does and while the current costs may be similar, I cannot imagine the labor would be comparable? Therefore if the battery technology advances and the cost of the currently available technology drops significantly as a result of a newer better technology coming to market, then it might make a lot more sense to replace the battery? I recall reading that roughly hald the cost of the 2011 Nissan Leaf was the battery when it first came to market, so that's about $15K, but maybe that was not entirely true, because it's not like there was a Nissan Leaf battery for sale in the marketplace at that time? Anyway, now there is a replacement battery on the market and it supposedly costs $5k-6k. So is that worth the price to restore range? I don't know, maybe for some folks it is? But maybe in 2-3 more years that cost will be half of what it is now, which could make keeping the Leaf and refreshing the battery much more appealing to many folks? All this is speculation of course and only time will tell how it all plays out, but I'm optimistic that maybe it will make economic sense to replace batteries?
In the US as long as there is a 7500 tax credit + state credits there will be little demand to spend thousands for a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery. If my leaf was 7 years old and I had the option to buy it a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery, or a new 150 mile Gen 2 Leaf, I would go with the new Leaf. It just does not make financial sense to put even $4K in a $10K car (never get your money back out of it) when you could put that into a new car and get 7500 tax credit on top of that. Only if batteries were almost free would it make it worthwhile.
I'd be shocked (pleasantly shocked) if those federal tax credits stayed at $7500 for 7 more years. Nissan is on pace to hit the 200k manufactured in the next few years, which is when the credits phase out under current law.
The financial incentives currently available definitely make the $30k new Leaf attractive for many folks, but there will always be a used car market for people who don't want or cannot afford car payments or at the very least can only afford a very small car payment. Therefore, I think that there will likely be a price point on the replacement batteries that will make used EVs very attractive cars for many folks, this may not be the case today, but we may see this in a couple years, time will tell?

minispeed
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:45 am

Nubo wrote: Yes, but I think you could compete putting $4000 in a cheap used EV, giving it twice its original range. It's all a matter of if/when batteries advance enough for a rejuvenation to make economic sense.
I don't think that will ever ever happen. If the wholesale price goes to $100 a KWh your looking at at least $3500 wholesale for enough to break a 120 mile range. Factor in the cost of shipping a whole container to a company, engineering costs to have it fit the existing nissan case or make a new one, profit for the company selling them, install on the customers car and shipping costs to get the battery out to the customer. Assume that newer 35 KWh have the same 450lb weight as the battery now FedEx would want $2500 to ship from LA to NY state. If they reuse nissan battery components they need the old one back so that's $5000 shipping alone. Yes there are cheaper options but they are slower. So for somone who doesn't need 3 day they could prob ship for half that, maybe less but I doubt it could be done for less than $2000 both ways. Even most people in the same state as the company will prob add over $1000 for shipping.

I have no idea what those costs would be but I think it's safe to say it it would put the cost to a customer well above $6000.

Plus consider that people in the us will want a warrantee. If you have to pay shipping for warrantee work how good does that sound at well over $1000 for warrantee replacement? If the company will pay shipping they will have to have a higher mark up to cover the risk.
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bbrowncods
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:11 am

You do have a good point. I will give you an example that I am currently in. I have a 1989 Peugeot 405S that I bought new. In 1994 Peugeot pulled out of the US so the car became what is commonly refered to as an orphan. Although it was a great car, the value of it became so low that it was not worth even trading in because it was worth more to me to continue to drive. At some point it will need a major repair. Do I repair it or send it to car heaven? In the mean time, I drive it as a backup vehicle.

Is it worth putting 6000 in a car that is worth 7000? Will it be worth 13,000 after the repair? Not likely. You will still have a $7000 car. Maybe a little more if a buyer realizes the benefit of a newer battery. Much less if it has 100,000 miles or more.

Everyones financial situation is different and we both can make a case for our stance. My point is that MOST people will not put $6000 into a typical used car that is worth around that much, if they can keep from it. They will get an ICE or a newer EV with their money. It just makes sense.

Today you can find 2011 SL Leafs for $11K on ebay. In four more years a 2011 Leaf will be $7k if they need a battery (most will). The scenario I see is the owner will take it to the dealer when he can no longer drive to work, and be hit with a 6,000 bill and be talked into buying something newer. That car will be traded in for 1,000 (because it needs a battery), and sold at auction to a small used car dealer. That dealer will put it on the lot for sale if it is in poor condition. If it is in nice condition he may put a newer battery in it for 1,000 (his cost for his mechanic and a local junkyard battery) and sell it. Or it is bought by a junkyard. This is how it works for ICE cars that are around 100,000 miles.

If I am standing there at the dealer in 2018 looking at a new 200 mile range Leaf equiped with super capacitors, 2 drive motors, lane departure and adaptive cruise technology, the latest safety features, etc, etc. - am I really going to spend 6,000 on my 2011 Leaf? No chance. Just think what your options will be for used EV's in 2018.

My Peugeot is going to car heaven!
2014 Cayenne Red Leaf SL purchased 6/9/2014 (dealer received it on 6/7/2014), manufacture date 4/2014.
7/4/14 -629 miles, Temp 83, SOC 97.5, 59.81 Ahr, SOH 91%, Hx 91.44, 20.2 Kwh, Avg 4.127, High 4.136, Low 4.122, GIDS 267/92.5%.

Moof
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 11:48 am

bbrowncods wrote: In the US as long as there is a 7500 tax credit + state credits there will be little demand to spend thousands for a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery. If my leaf was 7 years old and I had the option to buy it a new battery, even a new 150 mile battery, or a new 150 mile Gen 2 Leaf, I would go with the new Leaf. It just does not make financial sense to put even $4K in a $10K car (never get your money back out of it) when you could put that into a new car and get 7500 tax credit on top of that. Only if batteries were almost free would it make it worthwhile.
My calculus is to look over the life span of the vehicle and look at the cost per mile. A new Leaf every 100k miles for ~$20-30k (with no state incentives here in Oregon) vs. getting another 100k miles out of my current leaf for another $6500 (parts+labor for a 2011) is obvious to you, but I have every intention of going for the battery replacement option myself. If the battery is better, or cheaper then it will be an even easier decision. Things may change in another 6-7 years when I hit that point (maybe the Leaf 3, or Tesla Model 4 will be too good to pass up?), but as a beater commuter car I am likely just to keep the poor thing going.
2011 Cayenne Red bought used with 30k miles, manufacture data of 5/2011
42k miles 82% SOH 11 bars 218 GIDs at full charge
Running with Michelin Premier A/S with 42 psi for 10k miles

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dgpcolorado
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Re: Replacement batteries offered with increased range?

Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:13 pm

There are other costs to buying a new car that can add up in some places:

• Insurance is more expensive.

• In my state there is a stiff annual registration fee that plummetd as the new car rapidly loses value.

• I also paid sales tax on the car.

As it happened, these costs were mostly offset by a generous state tax credit, but once that begins to phase out in 2019 the prospect of making an old EV "new" again seems attractive, assuming the range still suited my needs.

$6000 to keep a LEAF going for another eight to ten years seems way cheaper than $20,000 (or more) plus insurance, plus sales tax, plus much higher annual registration fees.

The reason to go with the huge expense of a new car would be to take advantage of greatly increased range or other tech improvements, IMHO.
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