You do have a good point. I will give you an example that I am currently in. I have a 1989 Peugeot 405S that I bought new. In 1994 Peugeot pulled out of the US so the car became what is commonly refered to as an orphan. Although it was a great car, the value of it became so low that it was not worth even trading in because it was worth more to me to continue to drive. At some point it will need a major repair. Do I repair it or send it to car heaven? In the mean time, I drive it as a backup vehicle.
Is it worth putting 6000 in a car that is worth 7000? Will it be worth 13,000 after the repair? Not likely. You will still have a $7000 car. Maybe a little more if a buyer realizes the benefit of a newer battery. Much less if it has 100,000 miles or more.
Everyones financial situation is different and we both can make a case for our stance. My point is that MOST people will not put $6000 into a typical used car that is worth around that much, if they can keep from it. They will get an ICE or a newer EV with their money. It just makes sense.
Today you can find 2011 SL Leafs for $11K on ebay. In four more years a 2011 Leaf will be $7k if they need a battery (most will). The scenario I see is the owner will take it to the dealer when he can no longer drive to work, and be hit with a 6,000 bill and be talked into buying something newer. That car will be traded in for 1,000 (because it needs a battery), and sold at auction to a small used car dealer. That dealer will put it on the lot for sale if it is in poor condition. If it is in nice condition he may put a newer battery in it for 1,000 (his cost for his mechanic and a local junkyard battery) and sell it. Or it is bought by a junkyard. This is how it works for ICE cars that are around 100,000 miles.
If I am standing there at the dealer in 2018 looking at a new 200 mile range Leaf equiped with super capacitors, 2 drive motors, lane departure and adaptive cruise technology, the latest safety features, etc, etc. - am I really going to spend 6,000 on my 2011 Leaf? No chance. Just think what your options will be for used EV's in 2018.
My Peugeot is going to car heaven!
2014 Cayenne Red Leaf SL purchased 6/9/2014 (dealer received it on 6/7/2014), manufacture date 4/2014.
7/4/14 -629 miles, Temp 83, SOC 97.5, 59.81 Ahr, SOH 91%, Hx 91.44, 20.2 Kwh, Avg 4.127, High 4.136, Low 4.122, GIDS 267/92.5%.