Zythryn
Posts: 1115
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Ghosn: Chevrolet Bolt “Not A Surprise”

Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:30 am

o00scorpion00o wrote:...
200 miles I would say would need at least 60 Kwh and I can't see the average car having 60 Kwh for another 10 years unless there is some major breakthrough in cost.
.
There are expensive cars now with 200 mile range at 60 kWh with 4-5 year old batteries.

Battery technology is giving us improvements of about 8%/year. No major breakthroughs are needed.

Lessen the weight of the car, lower the air resistance, put in batteries that have 5-7 years of improvements and I believe a 200 mile EPA range is attainable by 2017 for under 40k.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

o00scorpion00o
Posts: 347
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Jan 2015
Location: Ireland

Re: Ghosn: Chevrolet Bolt “Not A Surprise”

Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:50 am

Zythryn wrote:
o00scorpion00o wrote:...
200 miles I would say would need at least 60 Kwh and I can't see the average car having 60 Kwh for another 10 years unless there is some major breakthrough in cost.
.
There are expensive cars now with 200 mile range at 60 kWh with 4-5 year old batteries.

Battery technology is giving us improvements of about 8%/year. No major breakthroughs are needed.

Lessen the weight of the car, lower the air resistance, put in batteries that have 5-7 years of improvements and I believe a 200 mile EPA range is attainable by 2017 for under 40k.
Not sure the majority of non rich folk are willing to pay that kind of cash, not for a non premium vehicle anyway. 40K USD would be about 40K Euro's and probably before taxes, it would definitely have to have a German badge for it to sell here in Europe at that price.

Did GM not say the Bolt would cost under 30 K USD ? 60 Kwh for under 30 K ? I don't believe it, are GM as bad as the rest for over exaggerating their mileage claims ?

If Leaf II can have at least 40 Kwh I'd be happy with that. I could do my 84 mile round trip with no DC charging daily, however work will be installing a charge point which will eliminate the need to DC charge daily. So I could even tolerate 20% battery degradation but I don't intend keeping the leaf after the lease, I want more range and 200 miles is, imo, enough. I would prefer much faster charging, especially in winter.

I think in order to lessen the weight you need decent improvements in battery technology for 200 mile range, lighter cars with carbon fiber would be too expensive.
Delivery 20 th January 2015 . Top Spec with 6.6 Kw Charger . 44,200 miles as of July 2017. Battery SOH 95%

Zythryn
Posts: 1115
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Ghosn: Chevrolet Bolt “Not A Surprise”

Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:17 am

o00scorpion00o wrote:
Not sure the majority of non rich folk are willing to pay that kind of cash [40k], not for a non premium vehicle anyway. 40K USD would be about 40K Euro's and probably before taxes, it would definitely have to have a German badge for it to sell here in Europe at that price.

Did GM not say the Bolt would cost under 30 K USD ? 60 Kwh for under 30 K ? I don't believe it, are GM as bad as the rest for over exaggerating their mileage claims ?
...

I think in order to lessen the weight you need decent improvements in battery technology for 200 mile range, lighter cars with carbon fiber would be too expensive.
More people will be willing/able to pay $40k for a vehicle than the 70k that a 200 mile EV costs now.

GM is estimating their Bolt will cost 37k. In the U.S. after federal incentives that will be 30k.

We are getting decent improvements in battery technology. The batteries in the Leaf II will be 6-7 years more advanced than those in the first gen.
The only 200 mile EV we have as an example right now is the Tesla. Lowering its weight is fairly easy as it is a large car. No CF or such is needed.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

rexki
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri May 03, 2013 11:49 am
Delivery Date: 30 Dec 2014
Leaf Number: 316107
Location: Chicago Area

Re: Ghosn: Chevrolet Bolt “Not A Surprise”

Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:40 am

Audi is already at 154 watt-hours/kg. That translates to 19.274 ounces/kg

85 KWh battery pack as this current day Audi config comes to 665 pounds - less than the Tesla pack weight!!

2-3 years from now - Tesla Gigafactory online and cost per kWh will be under $200 - likely $150.

Leaf Gen 2/3, Tesla Gen 3/4, Chevy Bolt Gen 1, Apple ICar Gen1 - all could start low end with 60 kWh packs weighing 400 pounds or less and costing $9,000 - $12,000.

With reduced battery pack weights we could easily see city driving performance of 6.0 ECO mode and highway 4.0 if the previously mentioned drag coefficient is dropped.

Ranges from this would be 360 city, and 240 highway.

A large highway minded battery pack could be opted for in the 100 kWh range and get 5.0 ECO mode city and 3.8 highway and thus have ranges of 500 city and 380 highway. This option would likely cost $10,000 extra.
2015 Leaf SL - GMSilver - Mfg:11/14 - AV-EVSE-RS 6.6kw - 19,200 miles - 285 gids 95.38% 63.04Ahr - 4.029m/kwh - Data:1/23/16
2006 Honda CNG GX - blue - PZEV - 50 mpg
2001 Honda Odyssey EX Van - green - I rebuilt engine and trans - oily carbon mess!!

lorenfb
Posts: 2296
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Ghosn: Chevrolet Bolt “Not A Surprise”

Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:01 am

rexki wrote:
2-3 years from now - Tesla Gigafactory online and cost per kWh will be under $200 - likely $150.
And you know this as reality in 2017, right?
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

rexki
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri May 03, 2013 11:49 am
Delivery Date: 30 Dec 2014
Leaf Number: 316107
Location: Chicago Area

Re: Ghosn: Chevrolet Bolt “Not A Surprise”

Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:26 am

lorenfb wrote:
rexki wrote:
2-3 years from now - Tesla Gigafactory online and cost per kWh will be under $200 - likely $150.
And you know this as reality in 2017, right?
I am not God or a prophet just a stockholder who attempts due diligence and my homework -

Here is some industry information targets that hit 2017, 2018 will only be another >=8% better

http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/defaul ... actory.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As far as price - GM has been selling Volt packs For 1 year - wholesale to dealerships for $133/kWh - my numbers are very conservative, they could easily be $60-100/kWh
2015 Leaf SL - GMSilver - Mfg:11/14 - AV-EVSE-RS 6.6kw - 19,200 miles - 285 gids 95.38% 63.04Ahr - 4.029m/kwh - Data:1/23/16
2006 Honda CNG GX - blue - PZEV - 50 mpg
2001 Honda Odyssey EX Van - green - I rebuilt engine and trans - oily carbon mess!!

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