200 miles I would say would need at least 60 Kwh and I can't see the average car having 60 Kwh for another 10 years unless there is some major breakthrough in cost.
There are expensive cars now with 200 mile range at 60 kWh with 4-5 year old batteries.
Battery technology is giving us improvements of about 8%/year. No major breakthroughs are needed.
Lessen the weight of the car, lower the air resistance, put in batteries that have 5-7 years of improvements and I believe a 200 mile EPA range is attainable by 2017 for under 40k.
Not sure the majority of non rich folk are willing to pay that kind of cash, not for a non premium vehicle anyway. 40K USD would be about 40K Euro's and probably before taxes, it would definitely have to have a German badge for it to sell here in Europe at that price.
Did GM not say the Bolt would cost under 30 K USD ? 60 Kwh for under 30 K ? I don't believe it, are GM as bad as the rest for over exaggerating their mileage claims ?
If Leaf II can have at least 40 Kwh I'd be happy with that. I could do my 84 mile round trip with no DC charging daily, however work will be installing a charge point which will eliminate the need to DC charge daily. So I could even tolerate 20% battery degradation but I don't intend keeping the leaf after the lease, I want more range and 200 miles is, imo, enough. I would prefer much faster charging, especially in winter.
I think in order to lessen the weight you need decent improvements in battery technology for 200 mile range, lighter cars with carbon fiber would be too expensive.
Delivery 20 th January 2015 . Top Spec with 6.6 Kw Charger . 44,200 miles as of July 2017. Battery SOH 95%