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Nubo
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Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:37 pm

We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years.

How is this possible?

Is there some major change in cost per battery kWh on the horizon?
Are they counting on some huge influence on the battery marketplace from the Tesla Gigafactory?
Some new battery technology that's being kept close to the chest? Magnesium-ion? Other?

Why does an affordable 200-mile EV make economic sense to manufacture in 2017 but today we have less than half of that?
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

edatoakrun
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Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:49 pm

Nubo wrote:We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years.

How is this possible...?
If you stipulate ~$30k before incentives is "affordable", and 200 miles of EPA range:

It's not.
="Nubo" ...Why does an affordable 200-mile EV make economic sense to manufacture in 2017...?
It doesn't
Last edited by edatoakrun on Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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derkraut
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Location: San Diego vicinity

Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:57 pm

+1 Sounds like the mfrs are listening to salesmen:

"What will it take for me to get you behind the wheel of this beauty tooooodaaaay!" :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Derkraut
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NeilBlanchard
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Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:35 pm

If the cars themselves are more efficient, then they can go farther on a smaller battery. And if a new battery cell (likely from LG) is significantly higher energy density, then that battery will fit, and cost less than it would otherwise.

We know that 200+ mile range is possible on ~33kWh battery pack, if the car is has lower aero drag, and has a more efficient drivetrain.

Zythryn
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Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:42 pm

In general, batteries tend to improve by about 7%-9% annually.
The first gen Leaf made its appearance in 2010. If their timeline is 2017, that is about a 50%-60% lowering or cost, or increase in energy density, or a bit of both.

The major players have also had time to get better at building EVs. They have learned from mistakes and quantities are increasing leading to a savings from that area as well.

I am most familiar with Tesla.
In their case, the car is 20% smaller, batteries are better, and they will scale down some of the luxury items. They will most likely taget a smaller profit margin than the 25% they currently are getting. The cost savings of their own battery plant added to the above will make for a much more affordable car.

While we aren't yet looking at numbers affordable enough so anyone can buy one, they are much more capable/affordable than the current crop.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
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Stoaty
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Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:53 pm

Most likely they have prototypes of the needed batteries, but need to time to test them out before putting them in a vehicle (don't want another batteries that can't stand up to the heat like Nissan's original batteries). They also need to figure out how to build a production version.
2011 Leaf with 62,000 miles given to Nephew
2013 Tesla Model S85 with 251 miles rated range at full charge
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DanCar
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Location: SF Bay area, 94043

Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:55 pm

Nubo wrote:We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years. How is this possible? Is there some major change in cost per battery kWh on the horizon?
LG says they will have this technology available in 2016 at a good price point. It is possible because LG has and continues to invest in research and technology breakthoughs. They have more battery patents then anyone else. Add Hyundai to the list: http://www.hyundai-blog.com/hyundai-ele ... r-battery/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I suspect Ford will announce next.
2013 Leaf SL leased 3/10/2013
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cdub
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Location: La Crescenta, CA

Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:09 pm

Easy answer. Base Leaf now is $21k after incentives. Add $10k worth more of battery and VIOLA! :) Easy peasy. :)
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Moof
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:11 pm
Leaf Number: 004023
Location: Beaverton, OR

Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:31 pm

Nubo wrote:We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years.

How is this possible?

Is there some major change in cost per battery kWh on the horizon?
Are they counting on some huge influence on the battery marketplace from the Tesla Gigafactory?
Some new battery technology that's being kept close to the chest? Magnesium-ion? Other?

Why does an affordable 200-mile EV make economic sense to manufacture in 2017 but today we have less than half of that?
Just a wild guess, but we have up to 85 kWh in a car now (and have had them in the field for 3 years). So it is more a matter of cost than anything. So to be viable similar to the Leaf in 2010 you would need the cost per kWh to be about half, and the energy density to be somewhat better.

A quick google search show density improve at roughly 11% per year, with wild claims for new anodes doing better:
http://electronicdesign.com/power/here- ... propulsion
Meanwhile cost estimates are shown to roughly halve every 8 years:
Image

11% per year translates to a doubling every 6-7 years, which is the time frame being discussed (2016-2017 introduction being 6-7 years after the Leaf launch). So you basically just need the industry to keep doing its normal trend, no massive breakthroughs required.

So why have we not seen 11% year longer range at each model year? My guess is that for an automotive application the requirements of testing and ruggedness are such that multi-year qualifications are required. Nissan may have chosen to not dribble longer range to us to avoid a costly re-qualification, or hell the marketing department may have worked their "magic" on it to maximize the buzz for the 2017 introduction.
Last edited by Moof on Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2011 Cayenne Red bought used with 30k miles, manufacture data of 5/2011
42k miles 82% SOH 11 bars 218 GIDs at full charge
Running with Michelin Premier A/S with 42 psi for 10k miles

Moof
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:11 pm
Leaf Number: 004023
Location: Beaverton, OR

Re: Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:45 pm

Another good read that talks about the battery cost trends:
http://qz.com/252990/the-story-of-elon- ... ctric-car/

Punchline is that $175-200 per kWh looks plausible in 2017, so a $10k battery cost would get you roughly a 50 kWh capacity in that time frame.
2011 Cayenne Red bought used with 30k miles, manufacture data of 5/2011
42k miles 82% SOH 11 bars 218 GIDs at full charge
Running with Michelin Premier A/S with 42 psi for 10k miles

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