arkansasleaf wrote:anybody care to make a wager ?? It seems way too late now for a new Leaf as a 2016 model, with the chevy bolt looking like it will be a 2017 model I guess thats what it will be for the leaf, if Chevy gets the bolt out in 2017 and Nissan can't it will be pretty sad. The small price reduction on the new volt proves that a smaller battery can deliver more energy and be reliable, it seems GM has figured out how to solve the degradation issue, probably both by improvements in additive chemistry and climate control of the battery, as the first gen volts have done extremely well with maintaining ev range over thousands of miles, and with frequent use of all of the battery range, as most leafs don't use all of the available range on a routine basis. I keep wondering if Nissan has a rabbit in the hat they are just waiting to pull out or maybe they are just simply slipping ?? don't forget about bmw, maybe a 200 mile I3 for 2017 ??
so my prediction:
nissan leaf - 200 mile range - 2017
chevy bolt - 200 mile range - 2017
bmw i3 - 200 mile range - 2018
tesla model 3 - 200 mile range - late 2018
audi - something 2019
vw - something 200 mile range - 2018
Nissan Leaf - 200 mile range (1xx real world) - 2017
chevy bolt - 200 mile range (1xx real world) - 2017
Tesla model 3 - 250 mile range (2xx real world) - 2017
I guarantee you that the Model 3 will have more range than the Leaf or Bolt by the fudge factor between Japanese/California cycles vs real world driving. Think 20 to 25% more range.
I also expect it will come out sooner than your estimate. I'd leave room for it taking orders in 2016 sight unseen (like they are doing now for Model X) and deliveries in 2017.