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TomT
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 03, 2015 3:44 pm

If it does come out sooner - and without failings of any unexpected drawbacks or pricing - it will definitely be my next EV...
dhanson865 wrote:I guarantee you that the Model 3 will have more range than the Leaf or Bolt by the fudge factor between Japanese/California cycles vs real world driving. Think 20 to 25% more range. I also expect it will come out sooner than your estimate. I'd leave room for it taking orders in 2016 sight unseen (like they are doing now for Model X) and deliveries in 2017.
Last edited by TomT on Sun May 03, 2015 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Leaf SL 2011 to 2016, Volt Premier 2016 to 2019, and now:
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DanCar
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 03, 2015 7:33 pm

arkansasleaf wrote: having same model car with different battery just seems so unlikely, from a used car pricing/selling point would create a lot of confusion I suspect.....Tesla is doing it, but they are in a class of their own.......
how would this be different than a 4 cylinder vs V6?
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BernieTx
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 04, 2015 9:16 am

arkansasleaf wrote: having same model car with different battery just seems so unlikely, from a used car pricing/selling point would create a lot of confusion I suspect.....Tesla is doing it, but they are in a class of their own.......
Batteries are not coming down in weight and volume as fast as some would like. Presumably Nissan could redesign the pack to use the same technology as the 2016 Volt2. The Volt2 battery kwh increased 11.5% from 16.5kwh for the 2013 Volt1 to 18.4kwh for the 2016 Volt2. The rest of the volt2 EV range improvement was opening up the usable battery percentage from 65% to 75%, and getting 3% out of improved efficiency.

38 miles (AER-2013Volt1) * 18.4/16.5 * 75%/65% * 1.03% = 50 miles (AER-2016-Volt2)
The Leaf already uses 87.5% of the battery, and Nissan already had their Lizard battery upgrade in 2015. So maybe all Nissan could realistically get out of the improved 2016 battery technology is another 8%-12% or 24kwh increases to 26-27kwh without a new model. This might be an AER of 91-94 miles. Also, it might require a new battery configuration with fewer cells, and other significant changes. The 50kwh-60kwh Leaf2 with its 200mile range will be a different more expensive model and the base model will likely retain the 24kwh lizard battery pack.
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DanCar
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 04, 2015 10:21 am

http://dailykanban.com/2015/01/today-he ... leaf-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://ecomento.com/2015/01/28/nissan-t ... eaf-range/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Nissan Japan chief Takao Katagiri said to expect a “more efficient EV with an improved battery,” during the company’s 2016 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2016, to March 31, 2017.
Journalists were then shown a slide with three arrows indicating electric-car range. The first read 200 kilometers (124 miles) and represented the 2011 LEAF, the second read 228 km (141 miles), representing the updated 2013 LEAF.
Image
The third arrow was for an unnamed vehicle, and was reportedly twice as long as the arrow depicting the 2013 LEAF. That equates to roughly 282 miles, although all of these figures are based on the overly-optimistic Japanese testing cycle.
The problem with that graphic is that it doesn't start at zero. And the 2013 looks like it doubled the 2011 Leaf in range. The articles are overly optimistic, based on the graphic. Although Nissan has hinted elsewhere that doubling of range is coming.
Last edited by DanCar on Mon May 04, 2015 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tkdbrusco
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 04, 2015 10:30 am

I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots. I'd expect to see a $500-$1250 price increase on the 2016 over the current model. Look for lots of incentives on the current 2015s still on the lot, but not as many on the new 2016. The new pack will be for sale as a replacement for current leaf owners at $6000 (as opposed to $5500 for the existing one).

Gen 2 car is announced in April 2016 to be sold later that year as a 2017 model. Gen 2 car is completely redesigned and has 2 pack options. (1) 120-140 mi and (2) 180-200 mi. Price for that car increases to just under $36K for the base model, just under $40K for the increased range model.
Last edited by tkdbrusco on Mon May 04, 2015 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DesertSprings
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 04, 2015 3:22 pm

Pretty sure Nissan is going to be as tight lipped as possible about the next gen, to make sure it doesn't hurt sales of the current gen.

desiv
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 04, 2015 4:06 pm

DesertSprings wrote:Pretty sure Nissan is going to be as tight lipped as possible about the next gen, to make sure it doesn't hurt sales of the current gen.
Oh come on! How could that be a problem!
Now, where's my Osborne 2 computer.. er.. um.. ;-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

desiv
(showing my age there...)
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User avatar
TomT
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 04, 2015 5:06 pm

This graph is bogus on many levels... It uses the ridiculously optimistic Japanese cycle, it pawns off the elimination of the 80% charge capability as a "range increase" in the later models, and it is non-linear.
DanCar wrote:The problem with that graphic is that it doesn't start at zero. .
Leaf SL 2011 to 2016, Volt Premier 2016 to 2019, and now:
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dhanson865
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Thu May 07, 2015 7:51 am

dhanson865 wrote:
arkansasleaf wrote:anybody care to make a wager ?? It seems way too late now for a new Leaf as a 2016 model, with the chevy bolt looking like it will be a 2017 model I guess thats what it will be for the leaf, if Chevy gets the bolt out in 2017 and Nissan can't it will be pretty sad. The small price reduction on the new volt proves that a smaller battery can deliver more energy and be reliable, it seems GM has figured out how to solve the degradation issue, probably both by improvements in additive chemistry and climate control of the battery, as the first gen volts have done extremely well with maintaining ev range over thousands of miles, and with frequent use of all of the battery range, as most leafs don't use all of the available range on a routine basis. I keep wondering if Nissan has a rabbit in the hat they are just waiting to pull out or maybe they are just simply slipping ?? don't forget about bmw, maybe a 200 mile I3 for 2017 ??

so my prediction:
nissan leaf - 200 mile range - 2017
chevy bolt - 200 mile range - 2017
bmw i3 - 200 mile range - 2018
tesla model 3 - 200 mile range - late 2018
audi - something 2019
vw - something 200 mile range - 2018

Nissan Leaf - 200 mile range (1xx real world) - 2017
chevy bolt - 200 mile range (1xx real world) - 2017
Tesla model 3 - 250 mile range (2xx real world) - 2017

I guarantee you that the Model 3 will have more range than the Leaf or Bolt by the fudge factor between Japanese/California cycles vs real world driving. Think 20 to 25% more range.

I also expect it will come out sooner than your estimate. I'd leave room for it taking orders in 2016 sight unseen (like they are doing now for Model X) and deliveries in 2017.
Tesla confirmed again in the latest earnings call that Model 3 is coming 2nd half 2017.

Model 3 design reveal March 2016, production late 2017
Last edited by dhanson865 on Thu May 07, 2015 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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desiv
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Thu May 07, 2015 8:05 am

dhanson865 wrote:Tesla confirmed again in the latest earnings call that Model 3 is coming 2nd half 2017.
I don't ever question Tesla's ability to confirm release dates...
They are very good at that..

I just question their ability to hit those dates.. :D :lol:

But I wish them luck!

desiv
2012 Leaf SL - Silver (gone - traded in)
2017 Bolt LT - Red

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