No, I hadn't seen that thread; thanks for the link. As for believing it, well given the sources cited (none), I'll file it in the category "I hope it's true but I'll believe it when there's independent confirmation". That's NOT to say I think that post is wrong, merely that I have no way to judge the accuracy of what's presented as fact.
Probably the aspect of that rumor/information that I find most convincing is that it's only a 25% bump in battery capacity. That feels like the "more than you had, less than you want" kind of mid-life kicker Nissan would deliver. My assessment is that they almost have to deliver something of interest between now and the arrival of the Leaf II, to avoid a complete meltdown of sales.
I still think there's something to be said for paying attention to the lifespan of designs and the need to amortize development costs. If Nissan brings out a 30kWh pack on September 7th (again, that's when NMAC told me the 2016 Leafs are coming), I would expect it to live on, perhaps moving it into the S in the Leaf II with the SV and SL getting a larger pack. That still requires the development of two new packs, but they would both stay in production for several years.
For me, an extra 25% in range would be nice, but it's nothing I'd get too excited about, frankly. My extended lease will be up the end of March 2016, which will give the market a chance to settle down after the 2016 introductions. Until I know the pricing, I don't know if I'd go with an S or SV; if Nissan keeps the S at 24kWh and cuts the price, then I might re-up for a two-year lease on another S.
As always, this stuff sure isn't dull...
Bazooka wrote:I think there are still some intriguing possibilities here:
Either you didn't read or don't believe the leak in http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19818
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; which states the next battery capacity is 30kWh with a few new paint colors offered.
That's a 1.25X pack not a 1.5X or 2X. None of your scenarios match the leaked info for 2016 Leaf though if you take the worst of scenario 2 and scenario 3 and combine them that is probably close.
revised its something like: They put a 30kwh in the 2016 SV and SL, keep the 24 kWh in the 2016 S, and we don't know if the next battery will be a 2017 or 2108 change and we don't know if it will be 36 kWh or more when they bump it up again.
2016 LEAF trim levels will break down as follows:
Available Exterior Colors:
Deep Blue Pearl
Available Options Packages:
Charger Package is still an option on the S model and still contains the ChaDeMo port and the 6.6kW OBC. No more QC + LED Headlight Package option on the SV, that equipment appears to come as standard on the '16 SV (not confirmed but I don't see the option so I'm assuming the ChaDeMo port is standard, not sure about the LED headlights but I'd bet those are there as well). Premium Package with Bose + AVM is still an option on both the SV and the SL (really should be standard on the SL IMO).
In short, bigger battery, more colors...