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DaveEV
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 24, 2015 12:33 pm

QueenBee wrote:Regarding the question of if 2015s have a significant amount of additional unusable capacity. Isn't that as easy to detect as comparing the fullly charged pack voltage and turtle killed pack voltage between 2015 and early cars? Am I correct in thinking that if they left additional capacity at the top/bottom we should see lower/higher voltages?
Yes, you are correct. It'd be easy to see if the 2015 batteries are hiding extra capacity at the bottom by looking at cell/pack voltage at turtle. We already know that cell/pack voltage is slightly higher if anything at 100% on the 2013+ LEAFs than the 2011-2012.

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JeremyW
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 24, 2015 1:00 pm

Bazooka wrote:I got the woman to tell me when the 2016 Leaf is arriving: September 7.
Oh jeez. My lease is up on the 9th. :shock:
Former 2012 SL leasee 6/23/12 - 9/23/15
Former Fit EV leasee.
Now driving Spark EV and Model 3.

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evnow
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 24, 2015 3:52 pm

Bazooka wrote:
3. They put a 1.5X pack into all 2016/2017 Leafs, and then in the Leaf II the S stays the same (1.5X) and the SV and SL get bumped to a 2X pack. This seems unlikely to me, as it makes the product line complicated and it requires two new packs in short order, something Nissan would likely not be thrilled with, even if they could spread the development cost over the Leaf and their electric minivan (eNV2500?).

Besides the obvious move to increasing battery range, I think Nissan is feeling pressure to give owners at least some choice in range, and option 2 above seems to me like a reasonable way to get there.

I really doubt we'll see a retrofit of the longer range pack. Nissan certainly could make that happen, but I doubt they'll want to invest the development cost plus deal with the implementation hassles. Who would do the battery swap? Your local dealer? :shock:
I think this is what we're seeing. Instead of 1.5 we have 1.25.

So, in MY17 they could have

S - 30KWH
SV - 50 KWH
SL - 60 kWh

This will allow them to have a 200 mile Leaf and something that costs $25k and goes 100 miles.

BTW, Nissan probably really hates this news getting leaked out. It really depresses their already low Leaf sales till September.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

Bazooka
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 5:58 am

No, I hadn't seen that thread; thanks for the link. As for believing it, well given the sources cited (none), I'll file it in the category "I hope it's true but I'll believe it when there's independent confirmation". That's NOT to say I think that post is wrong, merely that I have no way to judge the accuracy of what's presented as fact.

Probably the aspect of that rumor/information that I find most convincing is that it's only a 25% bump in battery capacity. That feels like the "more than you had, less than you want" kind of mid-life kicker Nissan would deliver. My assessment is that they almost have to deliver something of interest between now and the arrival of the Leaf II, to avoid a complete meltdown of sales.

I still think there's something to be said for paying attention to the lifespan of designs and the need to amortize development costs. If Nissan brings out a 30kWh pack on September 7th (again, that's when NMAC told me the 2016 Leafs are coming), I would expect it to live on, perhaps moving it into the S in the Leaf II with the SV and SL getting a larger pack. That still requires the development of two new packs, but they would both stay in production for several years.

For me, an extra 25% in range would be nice, but it's nothing I'd get too excited about, frankly. My extended lease will be up the end of March 2016, which will give the market a chance to settle down after the 2016 introductions. Until I know the pricing, I don't know if I'd go with an S or SV; if Nissan keeps the S at 24kWh and cuts the price, then I might re-up for a two-year lease on another S.

As always, this stuff sure isn't dull...
dhanson865 wrote:
Bazooka wrote:I think there are still some intriguing possibilities here:
Either you didn't read or don't believe the leak in http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19818" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; which states the next battery capacity is 30kWh with a few new paint colors offered.

That's a 1.25X pack not a 1.5X or 2X. None of your scenarios match the leaked info for 2016 Leaf though if you take the worst of scenario 2 and scenario 3 and combine them that is probably close.

revised its something like: They put a 30kwh in the 2016 SV and SL, keep the 24 kWh in the 2016 S, and we don't know if the next battery will be a 2017 or 2108 change and we don't know if it will be 36 kWh or more when they bump it up again.
bruddahmanmatt wrote: 2016 LEAF trim levels will break down as follows:

S 24kWh
SV 30kWh
SL 30kWh

Available Exterior Colors:

Forged Bronze
Brilliant Silver
Glacier White
Gun Metallic
Coulis Red
Deep Blue Pearl
Super Black
Pearl White

Available Options Packages:

Charger Package is still an option on the S model and still contains the ChaDeMo port and the 6.6kW OBC. No more QC + LED Headlight Package option on the SV, that equipment appears to come as standard on the '16 SV (not confirmed but I don't see the option so I'm assuming the ChaDeMo port is standard, not sure about the LED headlights but I'd bet those are there as well). Premium Package with Bose + AVM is still an option on both the SV and the SL (really should be standard on the SL IMO).

In short, bigger battery, more colors...

Bazooka
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 6:05 am

By the way -- has anyone else noticed that the US inventory of Leafs has dropped a lot lately? According to cars.com, the inventory has declined from a hair under 6,000 to 5,444 (as I type this) in just a few weeks. Looking at the recent selling rate, that looks like either [1] production has stopped or [2] production has slowed down and is coupled with a sales surge.

This certainly suggests that there might be a bigger pack coming in at least some trim levels of the 2016s, and Nissan is trying to empty the supply pipeline between now and early September.

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 8:48 am

tkdbrusco wrote:Here's my most recent data from my 2015, with 11,056 mi.

286 Gids
22.17 kwh
97.23% SOC
91.68% SOH
93.76 HX
60.74 Ahr
71.6 F

The one thing that strikes me is that even though 286 Gids is very high, and similar to what a new 2011-2014 was off the lot, my SOH is only at 91.68%, My starting gids at new was 292, and my SOH was never higher than 98%. A drop from 292 to 286 only indicates a 2.1% drop, but my SOH indicates much more? Maybe there is more kwh in there and I actually do have nearly 8% degradation?

There's a few 2015 people who are still reporting 100%+ SOH with over 10K miles on their cars? Maybe these people have Gen2 cells in the cars and are being used as testers? or they are just from colder climates.

I have not seen a consistent correlation between GIDs and SOH either. I do notice that the SOH seems to drop more when I have a few light driving days in a short period of time or if it sits more than 24 hours, etc. ahr and Hx seem to follow each other "most" of the time. the GIDs seem to follow nothing
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 2640.9 mi, 99.37% SOH
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TonyWilliams
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 10:14 am

ishiyakazuo wrote:Well, 286/91.68% SOH implies that the full pack has at least 312 GIDs at 100% SOH... that would be in line with a 27kWh pack, as the original 24kWh pack had ~282 GIDs.
Using YOUR data, 312 GIDs * 80 wattHours per GID = 25kWh battery.

Not 27.

ishiyakazuo
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 5:24 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:
ishiyakazuo wrote:Well, 286/91.68% SOH implies that the full pack has at least 312 GIDs at 100% SOH... that would be in line with a 27kWh pack, as the original 24kWh pack had ~282 GIDs.
Using YOUR data, 312 GIDs * 80 wattHours per GID = 25kWh battery.

Not 27.
Ah, but you're missing something there. Remember that the original 24kWh battery only had about 22kWh usable. Thus, if it's 25kWh usable in the pack, you're looking at something like a 27kWh battery pack. If the thing has 312 GIDs, when it's not charged to true 100% (which it never would be, especially if software is limiting it to 292 or so), comparing apples to apples, I'm thinking it's probably at least 26.
All that being said, this speculation gets us nowhere if Nissan won't allow the use of that capacity in the LEAF. At best, it might help explain things a year or two down the line when we start seeing enough degradation that it can be properly modelled.
2012 LEAF SL in Cayenne Red
40 mile R/T commute in Chicagoland
Leaf Spy Lite (June 2015, 22513 miles): AHr = 56.86, SOH = 86%, 393.13V, Hx = 73.55%, 924 L1/L2s, min/avg/max = 4.080 4.097 4.109 (29mV)

dhanson865
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 6:46 pm

ishiyakazuo wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:
ishiyakazuo wrote:Well, 286/91.68% SOH implies that the full pack has at least 312 GIDs at 100% SOH... that would be in line with a 27kWh pack, as the original 24kWh pack had ~282 GIDs.
Using YOUR data, 312 GIDs * 80 wattHours per GID = 25kWh battery.

Not 27.
Ah, but you're missing something there. Remember that the original 24kWh battery only had about 22kWh usable. Thus, if it's 25kWh usable in the pack, you're looking at something like a 27kWh battery pack. If the thing has 312 GIDs, when it's not charged to true 100% (which it never would be, especially if software is limiting it to 292 or so), comparing apples to apples, I'm thinking it's probably at least 26.
All that being said, this speculation gets us nowhere if Nissan won't allow the use of that capacity in the LEAF. At best, it might help explain things a year or two down the line when we start seeing enough degradation that it can be properly modeled.
SOC at the top and bottom end vary from car to car vs what the dash shows. If I charge my car to full I can't get above 92.x% according to leafspy.

So you have no idea the actual full capacity until you charge it to full and take a reading. Doing math vs some perceived estimate of 100% is just fantasy.
Blue 2012 Leaf 195/65/15 tires, 15" Rims
Silver 2012 Leaf 16" stock wheels
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please join Truedelta.com and input your repairs.

ishiyakazuo
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 25, 2015 8:04 pm

dhanson865 wrote:SOC at the top and bottom end vary from car to car vs what the dash shows. If I charge my car to full I can't get above 92.x% according to leafspy.

So you have no idea the actual full capacity until you charge it to full and take a reading. Doing math vs some perceived estimate of 100% is just fantasy.
But we're not talking about SOC (State of Charge). We're talking about SOH (State of Health).
SOH, as I understand it, is an internal value that says how much capacity remains in the battery as a percentage of the maximum when it was new and has nothing to do with the current SOC.
On all previous model years (2011-2014), from what I've seen in the data, you can take the GIDs reported (from a full charge), divide it by 281, and you get almost exactly SOH. But on 2015s, it doesn't work that way, and we've seen people "stuck" at 292 GIDs for thousands and thousands of miles. This, to me, indicates that something is fishy with the data (either Leaf Spy isn't getting the data correctly on '15s, or the battery is capped at reporting 292 GIDs until it starts degrading below that point). tkdbrusco's is one of the few I've seen where you've got a max GIDs below 292 and an SOH that indicates that it's degraded over 8%, even though it's only down 6/292 GIDs... so all I'm saying is "something doesn't add up" and I'm curious to know what that is, but again, I don't know that knowing this helps in any way.
2012 LEAF SL in Cayenne Red
40 mile R/T commute in Chicagoland
Leaf Spy Lite (June 2015, 22513 miles): AHr = 56.86, SOH = 86%, 393.13V, Hx = 73.55%, 924 L1/L2s, min/avg/max = 4.080 4.097 4.109 (29mV)

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