Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

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phr00t

Active member
Joined
Mar 23, 2017
Messages
44
This page says the next Leaf redesign will have a 37.44kWh battery:

http://pushevs.com/2016/12/23/eaton-nissan-xstorage-reveals-future-battery-capacity/

The eGolf has a 35.8kWh battery, 119 MPGe & gets an EPA rating of 125 miles.
The Ioniq has a ~31.1kWh battery (28kWh usable as advertised), 136 MPGe & gets an EPA rating of 124 miles.

The current Leaf gets 112 MPGe, but we can safely assume the newer model will increase its efficiency.

If the new Leaf matches the Bolt's & eGolfs efficiency of 119 MPGe, the range will be around 130.7 miles. If the new Leaf can match the Ioniq's efficiency, the range will be around 149.3 miles.

Doubtful the Leaf will be able to match Ioniq's efficiency, for at least the heavier battery it will have to lug around. The current model only gets 112 MPGe, so an increase to 120-125 MPGe is likely their target.

I predict the next Leaf will then have an EPA range of 134 miles. If pricing stays roughly the same, expect a ~$30.7k MSRP bare-bones version (without a heat pump, heated seats or fast charging, as is with the current lowest model). Those features will all be standard on the Ioniq with an MSRP of ~$30.0k, but it will have slightly less range. The eGolf has worse efficiency / range (of the LEAF) & fewer standard features at likely a same price point.

What do you think of this prediction & how it may compare against the competition?
 
Interesting that they apply the 60% to the original capacity and not the current. Maybe there is a reason for that, I don't know.

If you apply the same math to the 30kWh battery, you end up with 48kWh. Incidentally, I've heard the 48kWh number speculated before, but not the 38kWh.

Just my 2 cents. I've given up on making actual predictions. I have been wrong too many times ;)

Like many others, I'm just going to wait until September when we'll know for sure.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Interesting that they apply the 60% to the original capacity and not the current. Maybe there is a reason for that, I don't know.

If you apply the same math to the 30kWh battery, you end up with 48kWh. Incidentally, I've heard the 48kWh number speculated before, but not the 38kWh.

A comment from the linked article addressed that by saying "The xStorage 6 kWh edition is using the 32.5 Ah cells from the 24 kWh Leaf. You can easily calculate this by multiplying the Wh of each cell with the number of cells (48)."

Can we verify that?
 
I missed that.

If the 37.44kWh number is close to correct, I will be very disappointed in Nissan. And I will be enjoying my new Model 3 or Bolt instead.
 
And that's why I hope Nissan will follow through with range options. A cheaper/shorter range car for the commuters. A more expensive/longer range car for those of us who want to travel medium distances regularly (in my case, ~300 with a single QC stop is my requirement).
 
webeleafowners said:
It would work for us and keep us on the Nissan side of the fence. That would give an extra 60 km of range so for us with our driving habits about 250 Km. An updated car and it's not a Chevy. Were in.

250km would be outside of my predicted range, requiring a charge.

How would you compare this offering to the Hyundai Ioniq (more standard equipment, not a Chevy, more efficient but a bit less range @ 200km)?
 
phr00t said:
webeleafowners said:
It would work for us and keep us on the Nissan side of the fence. That would give an extra 60 km of range so for us with our driving habits about 250 Km. An updated car and it's not a Chevy. Were in.

250km would be outside of my predicted range, requiring a charge.

How would you compare this offering to the Hyundai Ioniq (more standard equipment, not a Chevy, more efficient but a bit less range @ 200km)?

I haven't check out the ionic and we are aways away from a new car. Next winter we'll take the new crop of electrics for a drive when we are in Palm Springs.
 
All the pictures of the Leaf 2 battery have shown a taller battery, so a little
bigger physically. Adding a little more capacity.
 
The next EV I purchase must have a range of 200+ miles, and quick charging at a rate of at least 100kW. As such, that limits me to Tesla. I've already replaced my daily commuter with a Leaf, so the next replacement must be able to go on longer range trips. I occasionally must travel for work, so having a car that can go 160-180 miles round trip on one charge is a necessity unless DCFC becomes MUCH more prevalent.
 
TomT said:
If that is actually true, it will DOA with that small a battery...

phr00t said:
This page says the next Leaf redesign will have a 37.44kWh battery:
http://pushevs.com/2016/12/23/eaton-nissan-xstorage-reveals-future-battery-capacity/

If the battery is that "small", it will still have range beyond the VW eGolf, Hyundai Ioniq, BMW i3 (without the range extender) & SMART lineup. It would only have less range than the Bolt & Model 3, which both cost thousands more. People are setting their expectations far too high for the next generation Leaf.

I'd probably go with the Ioniq, because a few extra miles won't make much of a difference... but getting a heat pump, heated seats & fast charging for thousands less will.
 
My guess is easy, since Nissan has been telling us this information all along.

I predict that the classic LEAF (2011-2017) will linger on as a base model with 30kWh battery for at least a few years. That's EPA 107 miles. There may be an effort to bump this car up a bit, too, for the US, since it needs 150 miles of UDDS range to earn two CARB-ZEV credits, and it's so painfully close.

The 2018 LEAF v2.0 will be:

40kWh - 45kWh, using the same battery in the Renault car for an EPA range of 40 * 4 = 150-160 miles. This car will EASILY earn 2 CARB-ZEV credits in the US, and will sell well in Japan and Europe.

60kWh for US market primarily, which should earn three CARB-ZEV credits on the "250 miles" UDDS test. That will be about 210-220 EPA miles. It will be under the Bolt EV at 238 EPA miles.

I suspect that the base 55kWh Tesla Model 3 will also be about 215 EPA miles, however the 70kWh car will be about 250-260 miles.


60kWh LEAF v2.0
Use this 100% chart for a 60kWh new battery.


LEAFrangeChart60kWh.jpg
 
TonyWilliams said:
My guess is easy, since Nissan has been telling us this information all along.

There you go, using facts again! :lol:

It seems many people here prefer to get their information from click-bait articles and speculation upon speculation ;)
 
GetOffYourGas said:
TonyWilliams said:
My guess is easy, since Nissan has been telling us this information all along.

There you go, using facts again! :lol:

It seems many people here prefer to get their information from click-bait articles and speculation upon speculation ;)

How is @tonywilliams post not speculation? I do not see any sources.

The only information I'm aware of, that Nissan has been telling us all along, is they "can" do 200 or 300 miles but add "at what cost?", as if to give them an out for not initially offering it. They've also said "it's coming" vaguely, and then add "can't say when".

The article I sourced has numbers from Nissan. I can't say it is exactly what the Leaf 2.0 will have, but it is more than just saying "I think it will have a 40-50 kWh & 60 kWh battery in the US" based on..... what? Many other manufacturers didn't hit 150 miles to earn CARB-ZEV credits, even when close...
 
Well, these battery size numbers are painfully reminiscent of how the early computer companies stroked our members so that we gave them $$$ in the 1980s and 90s.

Remember when hard drives came in 80gb, 100gb, 120gb.... versions? Or early SD cards were 64mb, 128mb, 256mb? Each with the proportional price hike if you wanted Good, Better, Best. It cost them the same to make all of the versions, but we paid dearly for the honor to constantly increasing our equipment's capacities.. I could have saved thousands if I did not fall for these retarded money-churning schemes. Since then, I keep all my electronics until they are "functionally" obsolete. NO UPGRADING for me.

Well, my friends, for me, the BS of battery size and range improvements is OVER for me... OVER. Seeing this pattern is history repeating itself , I am not going to bite.... I have a great 24KW Leaf, which suits my needs perfectly, and I WILL NOT buy a parade of money making (for them) micro-improvements. We are still at the infancy in the evolution of EVs. I will always drive electric cars, but will use up my Leaf until it is unreasonable to keep it, and then buy a car with the capacity which is considered "mainstream" at that time. No top of the line for me (at a $$$ premium) because the following year the top of the line will be considered mainstream.

Don't fall for a greedy manufacture (Nissan for example) that tries to titillate your taste buds with the lure of raising capacity from 30 KW to 37 KW.. For me, when they go from 30KW to 70-80KW, then we will talk......................
 
powersurge said:
Well, these battery size numbers are painfully reminiscent of how the early computer companies stroked our members so that we gave them $$$ in the 1980s and 90s.

Remember when hard drives came in 80gb, 100gb, 120gb.... versions? Or early SD cards were 64mb, 128mb, 256mb? Each with the proportional price hike if you wanted Good, Better, Best. It cost them the same to make all of the versions, but we paid dearly for the honor to constantly increasing our equipment's capacities.. I could have saved thousands if I did not fall for these retarded money-churning schemes. Since then, I keep all my electronics until they are "functionally" obsolete. NO UPGRADING for me.

Well, my friends, for me, the BS of battery size and range increases is over for me... OVER. Seeing this pattern is history repeating itself , I am not going to bite.... I have a great 24KW Leaf, which suits my needs perfectly, and I WILL NOT buy a parade of money making (for them) micro-improvements. We are still at the infancy in the evolution of EVs. I will always drive electric cars, but will use up my Leaf until it is unreasonable to keep it, and then buy a car with the capacity which is considered "mainstream" at that time. No top of the line for me (at a $$$ premium) because the following year the top of the line will be considered mainstream.

Don't fall for a greedy manufacture (Nissan for example) that tries to titillate your taste buds with the lure of raising capacity from 30 KW to 37 KW.. For me, when they go fro 30KW to 70-80KW, then we will talk......................

Well said. In my case, weekly trips I make require charging, but a solid 100+ (even in winter) vehicle would allow me to skip charging, which would be a big functional improvement. I'd also like to keep the vehicle for many years, so extra "padding" of range to compensate battery degradation is big. I'm trying to determine if the Hyundai Ioniq will fit the bill, or wait for the Nissan Leaf... hence trying to predict ahead.
 
phr00t said:
GetOffYourGas said:
TonyWilliams said:
My guess is easy, since Nissan has been telling us this information all along.

There you go, using facts again! :lol:

It seems many people here prefer to get their information from click-bait articles and speculation upon speculation ;)

How is @tonywilliams post not speculation? I do not see any sources.

The only information I'm aware of, that Nissan has been telling us all along, is they "can" do 200 or 300 miles but add "at what cost?", as if to give them an out for not initially offering it. They've also said "it's coming" vaguely, and then add "can't say when".

The article I sourced has numbers from Nissan. I can't say it is exactly what the Leaf 2.0 will have, but it is more than just saying "I think it will have a 40-50 kWh & 60 kWh battery in the US" based on..... what? Many other manufacturers didn't hit 150 miles to earn CARB-ZEV credits, even when close...

Went to the source article, looks like he may have made one error? 2nd life battery listed as 4.2 kWh with new battery as 6 kWh. He goes on to extrapolate that the 60% improvement from the 6 kWh to 9.6 kWh (listed as same size battery/weight and avail. at end of 2017) would correspond to going from the original ~24 kWh pack to a ~37 kWh pack (and also correlates that to previous quote about Kangoo getting ~60% range improvement soon). Using the 60% value doesn't seem unreasonable, but I would think that the current 6 kWh ESS is using cells from a 30 kWh pack (not a 24 kWh pack), in which case new capacity would be 48 kWh (which is more in line with previous rumours if I recall correctly).
 
achewt said:
Went to the source article, looks like he may have made one error? 2nd life battery listed as 4.2 kWh with new battery as 6 kWh. He goes on to extrapolate that the 60% improvement from the 6 kWh to 9.6 kWh (listed as same size battery/weight and avail. at end of 2017) would correspond to going from the original ~24 kWh pack to a ~37 kWh pack (and also correlates that to previous quote about Kangoo getting ~60% range improvement soon). Using the 60% value doesn't seem unreasonable, but I would think that the current 6 kWh ESS is using cells from a 30 kWh pack (not a 24 kWh pack), in which case new capacity would be 48 kWh (which is more in line with previous rumours if I recall correctly).

This "error" was already discussed in this post: http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=23691#p489302

Looks like it isn't an error, but a common point of confusion. Data still appears to point to a 37.44kWh battery.
 
Looks like it isn't an error, but a common point of confusion. Data still appears to point to a 37.44kWh battery.

That would work fine for me and some others, but doesn't bode well for the Leaf's overall market appeal. Nissan will have to be $5k below the Bolt in price to compete.
 
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