Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

[phr00t]

If Nissan streamlined the leaf it could easily go 200 miles EPA but on a 48kwhr battery and priced below the fictional 3 and Bolt

The Tesla Model 3 is announced, unmasked test/beta vehicles have been seen on the road, and real production information has been made available. It may end up being later than the end of this year, but it's certainly not fictional.

The Leaf Gen 2, however...

I wouldn't say the Model 3 is fictional, but it is true mass production hasn't started on it yet. Mass production may not have started on the Leaf v2.0 either. However, Nissan has been making $30k electric vehicles for years, Tesla hasn't. I suspect it will be easier to get a Nissan Leaf 2.0 sooner than a Tesla 3, especially considering the Model 3 wait list.

With that said, I'm hoping we can stay on topic & not derail predictions of the next Leaf's range & value.

[ydnas7]

My expectation is that Sept reveal will be a global 60kWh LEAF, and some 3?-4? kWh LEAF classic regional reveal. These may even be 2 separate vehicle platforms, but share similar looks and name.

They might offer a "classic Leaf" if the Leaf 2? has a 60kwh pack, but why bother with two versions if the "new" Leaf is just a facelifted Leaf 1 with more energy density and different nose and tail?..

I dunno,
Check out USA Nissan Rogue, one is global Dualis/Qashqai, the other is global XTrail/Rogue. 2 different platforms.
There was also a Rogue Select, based on old Rogue/XTrail



anyway, I'll bite
Nissan LEAF Select (38kWh) = 38/30x107 = 135 mile EPA range (old pack)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.15 = 164 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV etc = 60/30 x 107x1.15 = 246 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)
I used 15% efficiency gain as wild guess, thats just 2% per year over 7 1/2 years. basically aero, but some weight and tyres refinement.

[LeftieBiker]

I don't want to get caught up in that much speculation with so little evidence. I'm expecting to see the Leaf we've seen in drawings that completely match the test cars we saw with camouflage. Any other versions (except leftover 2017s at clearance prices) I'll believe when/if I see them. Maybe they'll also offer a Rogue EV with 60kwh pack.

[ydnas7]

I don't want to get caught up in that much speculation....... Maybe they'll also offer a Rogue EV with 60kwh pack.

[DaveinOlyWA]

Well we know the 60 kwh pack is out there but we are only assuming its for the LEAF.

Personally I believe the LEAF will have both the 30 and the 60 available plus a middle ground but there is always the possibility that the NV 200 will finally come to town with only the 40ish and 60 available while the LEAF settles for the bottom 2.

Again, I believe the options will be more than accommodating but still have to consider the possibilities.

[ydnas7]

there is alot we don't know, but what we do know is that the 30kWh pack and the 60kwh may share the same footprint, their profile is different, so they are for different generations of cars.

Personally, I'm predicting carbon A pillars for Japanese cars and other export market cars, but steel construction for USA made cars and unknown for UK made cars.
So now we have 5 main variants, obviously not all will be available simultaneously in any one market.

Nissan LEAF Select (38kWh) = 38/30x107 = 135 mile EPA range (old pack)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Smyrna) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.07 = 142 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Smyrna) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.07= 229 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Japan) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.15 = 164 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Japan) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.15 = 246 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)

actually, I only predict 2 available in any one market at a time, but that globally, initially all 5 will be available somewhere (simultaneously)
the least likely of these to exist is the 40kWh strippers, they may go the way of Tesla model S 40kWh ....

[phr00t]

New evidence in another thread seems to support a ~134 mile EPA-rated Leaf 2.0:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 83#p493083

[jhm614]

New evidence in another thread seems to support a ~134 mile EPA-rated Leaf 2.0:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 83#p493083

134 still looks a little low to me. See my reply in the other thread.

Slightly bigger concern, that source article for the chart says the larger (60kWh?) battery might not be on the market until the 2020MY. Which means the 200 mi plus Leaf wouldn't be available untile then.

However, I'm just reading the first free page of the article that has been run through google translate and it is a little ambiguous. It might be saying that it won't be cost effective until 2020.

[tattoogunman]

there is alot we don't know, but what we do know is that the 30kWh pack and the 60kwh may share the same footprint, their profile is different, so they are for different generations of cars.

Personally, I'm predicting carbon A pillars for Japanese cars and other export market cars, but steel construction for USA made cars and unknown for UK made cars.
So now we have 5 main variants, obviously not all will be available simultaneously in any one market.

Nissan LEAF Select (38kWh) = 38/30x107 = 135 mile EPA range (old pack)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Smyrna) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.07 = 142 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Smyrna) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.07= 229 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Japan) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.15 = 164 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Japan) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.15 = 246 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)

actually, I only predict 2 available in any one market at a time, but that globally, initially all 5 will be available somewhere (simultaneously)
the least likely of these to exist is the 40kWh strippers, they may go the way of Tesla model S 40kWh ....

What does it mean when it says "new pack, part filled"?? This isn't similar to what Tesla has been doing where they give you the car and if you want the "full" capacity out of the pack they charge you more money or something is it?

[tattoogunman]

If you want both recent & from Nissan, that statement is "We can get to 200 or even 300 miles. We Can. The question is cost.", from http://www.automobilemag.com/news/new-n ... years-end/

Ok, let's talk about this quote specifically. Combine it with the fact that they will not reveal the Leaf 2 at CES or NAIAS. Many inside the industry expected them to. It seems to me that Nissan is waiting until they can produce something truly competitive with the Bolt. That might have caused a 9-month delay. When speaking about batteries and range, it is all about cost. We have known this. Tesla proved it years ago. Yes, they were building a 200+ mile BEV 10 years ago. Its price tag was 6 digits, and may or may not have been profitable. Nissan has been pressuring AESC to bring their costs down in line with LG Chem's. Maybe AESC figured out how, but needed more time. Or maybe they couldn't do it and Nissan needed some time to design for LG Chem's battery.

Of course, the flip side is that Nissan has stopped talking so much about range. They are now talking about ProPilot. It could be that they will not meet the range of the Bolt, and are hoping for ProPilot to give them the edge. The delay could just as well be in perfecting their software.

The bottom line for me is that I'm done making predictions. I'm just trying to piece together the evidence, and weight each bit accordingly. It's a fun game, but I have very little to lose. I own my Leaf and it works for me. I can upgrade whenever the right car comes along, but am in no immediate need (e.g. due to an expiring lease). Moreover, I test drove the Bolt and really liked it. So if Nissan does not deliver and Tesla stumbles or fails, I know there is a BEV on the market that will work for me.

So at a conservative guess, and bear in mind I am trying to catch up on all things EV, what is the realistic overall price tag of a battery pack? I drove a Leaf and frankly, to me at least, it is maybe a $15,000 car and it reminded me heavily of my old Toyota Corolla I used to have - no frills transportation. I have seen any number of estimates thrown around for replacement battery pack costs in the neighborhood of $5000 or more, so what is the realistic overall price? If a pack is realistically in that price range, these cars need to be priced in the $20K range and not the $30K range as they offer nothing to justify that price tag when compared to ICE cars you can get for the same price. I know that's probably a hot button topic and it's not meant to diss the cars, but they are just too expensive (for me at least). I have been following the Bolt and it has the same problem - the cost. I suppose that can easily be negated by those who can qualify for low leases, but for people who cannot qualify for a lease (i.e. not so stellar credit), these cars are just too cost prohibitive for the masses in my opinion - and I say that as someone who wants to enter into the EV world.