SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:14 am

webb14leafs wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
webb14leafs wrote: while the Model 3 will likely only produce a limited number of the base model 3s in the next couple of years.
How can you possibly know that ? I have a reservation for a base model that Tesla currently estimates for ~ march delivery.
Emphasis on "reservation".

Tesla has reported that they will not start manufacturing the base model until late fall 2017, and I imagine that someone without a reservation will not have access to the base model until early 2019.

I don't KNOW that, but I think it's a reasonable assumption.
Factor all you want, but if you wanted a Model 3 in the near future you had a lot of time in the past 18 months to reserve a car. Emphasis on reservation, which places me for delivery in the next six months.

Tesla now reports a 12-18 month window until delivery for reservations placed now, but that hardly translates into your assertion that only a limited number of base models will be produced in the next couple of years. It just means that demand is outstripping supply. 500k and climbing will do that to a company.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

joeriv
Posts: 249
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:35 am

RE: Leaf market share as second car:

There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day. In the first half of 2017, about 1.7 million cars were sold classified as "compact cars". These are facts.

Anyone who has teenagers in the house knows the pressure put on them for their own car. Anyone who regularly commutes by rail may have a car that sits at the RR station all day. How many locat trips are made probably less than 5 miles per leg? Local stop-and-go driving is the least efficient use of an ICE vehicle. Not facts but good suppositions.

Seems to me the market is there but the advertising is not. Make owning a BEV "cool" and perhaps sales will start to accelerate. While logic may be on the side of a BEV for a second car, logic is only one part of the sales process. Overcoming years of macho car advertising is no easy task.
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:58 am

joeriv wrote:RE: Leaf market share as second car:
There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day... These are facts...
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.
no condition is permanent

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:21 am

edatoakrun wrote: The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.
Nonsense
Outside of the EV only crowd, the Model 3 competes in the entry level luxury market. All cars in that market are powerful but they are also practical and sell very well in the affluent suburban Mom demographic.

The Leaf2 is a non-starter against the Model 3 for a variety of reasons, but you can start here:
Tesla Battery Reliability
Tesla cachet
Nissan reputation from the LEAF
Sub-standard battery technology
No substantial extended drive network outside of CA and a couple places on the East coast, and a crappy one at that.
Pedestrian styling in the LEAF2

The Leaf2 cannot even compete against the Bolt. And that is saying something.

The Leaf2 is another commuter car with a dubious battery
The Model 3 is a practical, avant garde entry level luxury sedan that just so happens to be an EV.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

webb14leafs
Posts: 251
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:51 am

Factor all you want, but if you wanted a Model 3 in the near future you had a lot of time in the past 18 months to reserve a car. Emphasis on reservation, which places me for delivery in the next six months.

Tesla now reports a 12-18 month window until delivery for reservations placed now, but that hardly translates into your assertion that only a limited number of base models will be produced in the next couple of years. It just means that demand is outstripping supply. 500k and climbing will do that to a company.
Not sure why you're getting so upset over my words.

Bottom Line - This thread is someone asking RIGHT NOW about whether they should buy a Leaf 2.0 or a Tesla Model 3. I told them that the base model will have limited availability for the next couple of years. You stated that if a reservation were made today it would be 12-18 months. I would say having to wait 12-18 months = limited availability. I also said he would probably have to wait until early 2019 - which guess what - is around 18 months from now.

Thanks for angrily agreeing with me.

webb14leafs
Posts: 251
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:58 am

SageBrush wrote:
edatoakrun wrote: The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.
Nonsense
Outside of the EV only crowd, the Model 3 competes in the entry level luxury market. All cars in that market are powerful but they are also practical and sell very well in the affluent suburban Mom demographic.

The Leaf2 is a non-starter against the Model 3 for a variety of reasons, but you can start here:
Tesla Battery Reliability
Tesla cachet
Nissan reputation from the LEAF
Sub-standard battery technology
No substantial extended drive network outside of CA and a couple places on the East coast, and a crappy one at that.
Pedestrian styling in the LEAF2

The Leaf2 cannot even compete against the Bolt. And that is saying something.

The Leaf2 is another commuter car with a dubious battery
The Model 3 is a practical, avant garde entry level luxury sedan that just so happens to be an EV
I think there's a strong chance the Leaf's price will undercut the T3 by close to $10,000. That's a lot of money to a lot of people, and can sway their decision making.

Generally, though, I agree. I would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0. $25K would make me think harder about the Leaf. I'm sure everyone has a different number.

internalaudit
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:34 am
Delivery Date: 09 Aug 2032

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:43 am

edatoakrun wrote:
joeriv wrote:RE: Leaf market share as second car:
There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day... These are facts...
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.
Good points. I know I want a BEV for our third car but constraints make my decision-making a lot easier -- need to cover 140 miles during winter. It may be a different market but of course like other things, there will be a subset of the population to whom both vehicles will cater -- those who care most about the driving range.

That total cost of ownership is what's making a Leaf 2.0 more and more interesting to me when it does come out with the 60 kWh battery pack and the fact that I don't get to have an AWD (or any other configuration) Model 3 delivered until late 2018 since I live in Canada (lots of time to decide on a BEV) but I'm really not in a rush, especially for the first production year of either vehicle.

September will be interesting because Honda is suppose to unveil another BEV, besides the Clarity.

I couldn't google the Nissan Leaf Canadian extended warranty though its moot at this point because the 2018 extended warranty maybe different. If I can get eight years off an EV with little maintenance/repair outlay because of the extended warranty, then I am be agnostic to the reliability of the BEV as long as issues are fixed properly.

webb14leafs
Posts: 251
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:48 am

internalaudit wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
joeriv wrote:RE: Leaf market share as second car:
There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day... These are facts...
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.
Good points. I know I want a BEV for our third car but constraints make my decision-making a lot easier -- need to cover 140 miles during winter. It may be a different market but of course like other things, there will be a subset of the population to whom both vehicles will cater -- those who care most about the driving range.

That total cost of ownership is what's making a Leaf 2.0 more and more interesting to me when it does come out with the 60 kWh battery pack and the fact that I don't get to have an AWD (or any other configuration) Model 3 delivered until late 2018 since I live in Canada (lots of time to decide on a BEV) but I'm really not in a rush, especially for the first production year of either vehicle.

September will be interesting because Honda is suppose to unveil another BEV, besides the Clarity.

I couldn't google the Nissan Leaf Canadian extended warranty though its moot at this point because the 2018 extended warranty maybe different. If I can get eight years off an EV with little maintenance/repair outlay because of the extended warranty, then I am be agnostic to the reliability of the BEV as long as issues are fixed properly.
You're in a good position to not rush. 2019 and 2020 should be big years for EV releases.

internalaudit
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:34 am
Delivery Date: 09 Aug 2032

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:43 pm

webb14leafs wrote:
internalaudit wrote:
edatoakrun wrote: Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.
Good points. I know I want a BEV for our third car but constraints make my decision-making a lot easier -- need to cover 140 miles during winter. It may be a different market but of course like other things, there will be a subset of the population to whom both vehicles will cater -- those who care most about the driving range.

That total cost of ownership is what's making a Leaf 2.0 more and more interesting to me when it does come out with the 60 kWh battery pack and the fact that I don't get to have an AWD (or any other configuration) Model 3 delivered until late 2018 since I live in Canada (lots of time to decide on a BEV) but I'm really not in a rush, especially for the first production year of either vehicle.

September will be interesting because Honda is suppose to unveil another BEV, besides the Clarity.

I couldn't google the Nissan Leaf Canadian extended warranty though its moot at this point because the 2018 extended warranty maybe different. If I can get eight years off an EV with little maintenance/repair outlay because of the extended warranty, then I am be agnostic to the reliability of the BEV as long as issues are fixed properly.
You're in a good position to not rush. 2019 and 2020 should be big years for EV releases.
Only the $11k government EV incentive (that may disappear middle of next year depending on the provincial elections result) is what's making me itch as well as potential gasoline savings but really depreciation is the killer for households already with dependable but depreciated ICE vehicles. :)

I think most of these 150 mile (sustained range even during winter) BEVs will hold their value but current ones may not as the driving range increases and battery pack costs decrease with every product iteration.

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:09 pm

edit: The D&D fee in the configurator below now seems to be $1,000 rather than the $1,200 in earlier reports.

And I significantly overstated the price range for the 30 July delivery 3's.

Prices now (I hope) corrected below, as per:

http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-configurator-2/

webb14leafs wrote:... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...
When do you think that will happen, if ever?

TSLA has announced the lowest-priced model 3 will cost $36,000 delivered, color black only, with no options, if and when they ever build them.

TSLA has not announced, how cheap the interior of the $36.2K model 3 will be, or what other features it will be lacking, in comparison to the small number of ~$50k to ~$60.5k model 3s it has actually built and given glimpses of so far.

Consider that the average actual sale price (which TSLA refuses to report) of what TSLA claimed would be the "~$50k" model S, is now believed to be close to $100k.

If most model 3's are sold for between ~$40k to ~$80k, as has been announced, that will be at half the price range of Tesla's previous vehicle sales, which themselves have never been profitable...

And even if you do buy a model 3 for $36,200, do you think the maintenance and repair costs will be comparable to any other car sold at that price?

TSLA's policies give it a virtual monopoly on repair work and replacement parts, and both are priced by TSLA well above competitors'.

Look for yourself at the horrendous reliability records set by the model S and X.

https://www.truedelta.com/join?l=1

You think the model 3, having been rushed (almost) to market, will by some miracle, not be extremely expensive to keep on the road?

The reason I expect the TCO of the Gen two LEAF to be ~half that of the Tesla 3 is the experience of owning a gen one for 6+ years, and having had it cost me less over ~54k miles than any comparable ICEV would have, and only a small fraction of the cost of owning any TSLA.

If anyone wants to buy a model 3, go ahead.

But don't delude yourselves with the belief that a model 3, an expensive car to buy, and one designed to stay expensive, until it is scrapped, will have ownership costs comparable with those of a Nissan LEAF, either Gen one or two.
Last edited by edatoakrun on Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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