edatoakrun
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Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:36 pm

internalaudit wrote: ...I think most of these 150 mile (sustained range even during winter) BEVs will hold their value but current ones may not as the driving range increases and battery pack costs decrease with every product iteration.
Sorry, but I think you have that A_ _ Backwards.

The fastest depreciating component in every BEV has always been the battery, and this will likely continue to be the case, as the pack price per kWh continues to decline, year by year, far faster than the rest of the vehicles components.

Check out how cheaply you can pick up a (~42 kWh TSLA pack and drive-train) 2012-14 Toyota RAV4 EV today.

Some paid full list price for these, ~$50 k, just 4-5 years ago.
no condition is permanent

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evnow
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Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:12 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...
When do you think that will happen, if ever?

TSLA has announced the lowest-priced model 3 will cost $36,200 delivered, color black only, with no options, if and when they ever build them.
You have really outdone yourself with all that FUD in just one post. Bravo.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 2051
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Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:24 pm

evnow wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...
When do you think that will happen, if ever?

TSLA has announced the lowest-priced model 3 will cost $36,200 delivered, color black only, with no options, if and when they ever build them.
You have really outdone yourself with all that FUD in just one post. Bravo.
?

The only part that was FUD is the use of the word "if"
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

finman100
Posts: 328
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:42 am
Delivery Date: 06 Jun 2014
Location: Albany, OR

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:54 pm

no. that's ALL effing FUD. good grief that is sad. shorters gonna short I guess.

Superchargers - Where u gonna charge that Leaf 2.0? one charging slot per "quick charge" location (50 kW is NOT fast) if they ain't broken or being used along your route? Superchargers all across the world with many slots per location to charge. Please, it's not even close with Chademo and CCS. Really? And I live in Chademo world here in OR. It's a crapshoot to public fast charge anymore. Tesla has this figured.

Battery chemistry. Stable? I'd call losing 20 % over 40,000 miles pretty bad "stability" and that's me in the cool PNW! good grief, the hotter climates absolutely tank the Leaf's "better battery". Tesla has this figured.

Which company actively wants to transition AWAY from gas and oil? Nissan HAS to sell oil-burners to survive right now. GM, too. That's why sales of EVS for legacy car mfgs will NOT ever be stellar.

Full self-driving and safety features. Tesla has this figured.

Elon. Tesla is just a part of what this man is doing for the betterment of the planet and it's inhabitants.

The list is long for why the Leaf 2.0 will be a second car only. Which is not bad. if u can afford 2 cars. A regional EV and a long range gasser.

And if it fits that scenario, it will sell okay.

I'm personally done with Nissan and the Leaf in 4 months. It's been an awesome 3 years! but better is out there in the form of Model 3. it does more.
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
46,000 miles
17.5 kWh on 100% charge (51-ish Ah), down 1 bar
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

internalaudit
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:34 am
Delivery Date: 09 Aug 2032

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:13 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
internalaudit wrote: ...I think most of these 150 mile (sustained range even during winter) BEVs will hold their value but current ones may not as the driving range increases and battery pack costs decrease with every product iteration.
Sorry, but I think you have that A_ _ Backwards.

The fastest depreciating component in every BEV has always been the battery, and this will likely continue to be the case, as the pack price per kWh continues to decline, year by year, far faster than the rest of the vehicles components.

Check out how cheaply you can pick up a (~42 kWh TSLA pack and drive-train) 2012-14 Toyota RAV4 EV today.

Some paid full list price for these, ~$50 k, just 4-5 years ago.
Point taken on battery depreciation. That's what happens with early adopters.

Deprecation is quite significant likely not just because of the battery improvements but also because of the lack of historical data relating to the overall reliability of current BEVs. We have Honda's that have not had any issues with the engines or transmissions and those are the things missing in BEVs so many other components do break down in BEVs too. If the BEVS prove they can result in decreased cost of ownership (including cheap battery replacement if required), then there will be more uptake of used BEVs. I sure would consider a used longer range BEV down the road even if I have to finance a brand new one in the next year or two.

Higher priced vehicles will always depreciate faster because there are cheap alternatives in ICE vehicles.

Lithium and cobalt prices are going through the roof and hopefully newer battery technologies come to fore soon.

You can always get these salvaged components cheap but not sure if Tesla will allow them to run along with the rest of the car.

Even the Fit EV was being re-leased because of ample demand.
http://blog.caranddriver.com/honda-exte ... ed-fit-ev/

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abasile
Posts: 1922
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Location: Arrowbear Lake, CA

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:24 pm

finman100 wrote:Full self-driving and safety features. Tesla has this figured.
While I'm optimistic that Tesla will continue to be a forerunner in terms of delivering vehicles with autonomous functionality, we can only guess how long it'll take before "full self driving" becomes available. I think Elon has been overly optimistic here. Unless the pace of development really speeds up over the coming year, I don't think we'll be inclined to pre-pay for "full self driving" when taking delivery of a Model 3. As things stand today, Tesla vehicles aren't yet reading speed limit signs...

That said, today's AutoPilot feature is pretty useful in some key scenarios (such as long distance highway driving).
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

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evnow
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Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:50 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:The only part that was FUD is the use of the word "if"
Read the rest of his post. Dripping with FUD.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

SageBrush
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Location: NM

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:44 pm

webb14leafs wrote: I think there's a strong chance the Leaf's price will undercut the T3 by close to $10,000. That's a lot of money to a lot of people, and can sway their decision making.
And if the Leaf2 had Tesla battery reliability, that $10k would be money well saved.
But imagine if the battery ages like the current LEAFs. Then the commuter/regional car becomes a commuter in a few short years and the initial value proposition turns into a bad joke. Rather like the people who bought the LEAF at near MSRP and have 50 mile range cars now, within five years of purchase. Only worse, because people will be tempted to buy the car for uses that approach the new car range.

I hate to say it, but I think most of sales of the Leaf2 will be to people uniformed about the LEAF battery history.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

webb14leafs
Posts: 254
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Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:35 am

edatoakrun wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...
When do you think that will happen, if ever?
If you read my entire post you see that I was saying that a bit sarcastically and making a point that 1 - I think the Leaf will sell for much less than MSRP and 2 - the T3 will sell for much more than the advertised base model price.

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IssacZachary
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Leaf Number: 420789
Location: Gunnison, CO, USA

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:35 am

Porsches are much better than Toyota Camry's. But they don't sell as many...

The majority of people aren't going to pay +$40,000 for a limited range vehicle, even if it's a bit better than the +$20,000 vehicle.

The main reason I bought my Leaf was because it was cheap. I couldn't find anything cheaper than the total cost of ownership of buying a used Leaf at that time. Only a used Mitsubishi Mirage was marginally close in total cost of ownership. But buying a Prius, a Ford Fiesta, a Toyota Corolla, they were all more expensive. So I chose a used Leaf, pure and simple. I also realized that the battery will degrade, and that until it's at 70% or less it's still considered good. I'm hoping to get 200,000 miles out of my Leaf. By that time Tesla 3's and Leaf 2's will have proven what they can't and can't do, both physically and financially, and I'll be able to chose a used one based on what best suits me.

Yes, I did consider buying an ICE, and will do it again if I have to. I guess I'm about the same as most people, except I was willing to have a limited range vehicle just so I could spend less money. If I have to pay +$40,000 so I can go distances that 95% of the time I will never need to go then forget about it. I'll just keep driving my 1972 VW Beetle if that's the only choice I have.

I'm sure that for the majority of people on this planet it's not just the range that's prohibits them buying an EV, it's the price. People always ask if owning my Leaf is expensive. Then I tell them that I pay $15 per month in electricity. One lady went and bought a Leaf and sold here Subaru just because of my answer. Now she happily drivers her Leaf all over town.
2013 SL SOLD :cry:
2013 Toyota Avalon Hybrid CURRENT

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