MJuric
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:07 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Jan 2015
Leaf Number: 311119
Location: Rockford IL

Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:18 pm

So I just lost my first bar and was wondering if Past bar loss mileage/time is any predictor of future bar loss?

Thank You

LeftieBiker
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Re: Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:13 pm

The first (12th, actually) bar is worth about 15% of full capacity, with the next bunch being closer to 6%. So, no - not in a linear way. The way the car is charged and driven may give a per-% time frame, but that will also vary with seasons.
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WetEV
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Re: Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:28 pm

MJuric wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:18 pm
So I just lost my first bar and was wondering if Past bar loss mileage/time is any predictor of future bar loss?

Thank You
If conditions stay the same, yes, to an extent.

Capacity loss is due to time/charge level/temperature aka "calendar loss" AND due to miles aka "cycling loss".

Loss isn't linear, and the bars are not all the same size, as Lefty mentioned. So any answer can't be exact.

The hotter and the higher the SOC, the faster in general is the calendar loss.

Cycling loss isn't constant, but depends more on how low the SOC cycles, even for short amounts of time.

Just to be more confusing, details all of this depends on battery chemistry. So even if I point you to test results of one type of cell, your car has different chemistry, and will be different as well.

You may be charging to a higher SOC as the battery ages, and/or going to a lower SOC as you do the same trips with less stored energy.
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MJuric
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:07 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Jan 2015
Leaf Number: 311119
Location: Rockford IL

Re: Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:55 pm

I was aware that the first bar was 15% and the rest were something less or different. I was just wondering if for instance I had gotten 1000mi per percent for the first 15% does that mean, assuming similar conditions, I'll continue to get 1K per 1% or does that drop as well?

I think I'm pretty lucky as I almost got 76K for my first bar. Assuming the same drop rate I should get something like 30K per each additional bar.

I'm just trying to plan on how long I can reasonably drive the vehicle before range becomes an issue for me. Right now, when it's that -15F nasty winter stuff I'm getting home with 20-25% left on the battery. When that starts getting down to sub 10 I'm going to start getting nervous :D

goldbrick
Posts: 1418
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:33 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Aug 2017
Leaf Number: 311806
Location: Boulder, CO

Re: Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:23 pm

Battery capacity loss usually slows after a few years although it doesn't stop. If your car is a 2015 model you can probably expect the loss for each year going forward to be about the same as the last 12 months. I wouldn't extrapolate from new since that will be pessimistic. Also, loss seems to slow in the colder months. Hopefully someone will link to a graph or something in case this doesn't make sense.

MJuric
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:07 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Jan 2015
Leaf Number: 311119
Location: Rockford IL

Re: Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:45 pm

goldbrick wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:23 pm
Battery capacity loss usually slows after a few years although it doesn't stop. If your car is a 2015 model you can probably expect the loss for each year going forward to be about the same as the last 12 months. I wouldn't extrapolate from new since that will be pessimistic. Also, loss seems to slow in the colder months. Hopefully someone will link to a graph or something in case this doesn't make sense.
Interesting, so if I'm understanding correctly the loss rate for the next 6% should be less than it was for the first 15%.

goldbrick
Posts: 1418
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:33 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Aug 2017
Leaf Number: 311806
Location: Boulder, CO

Re: Past bar loss predictor of future bar loss?

Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:24 pm

I don't know how the next 6% will compare with the first 15%. Some folks have posted graphs of the SOH trend on their cars. If you could find one of those you could overlay any data you have for comparison and make a good guess.

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