Leaf or Prius?

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TreeStar

Active member
Joined
May 28, 2017
Messages
30
Location
Oregon City, Oregon
I've been researching the 2017 versions of these cars quite a bit lately. The Leaf has absolutely amazing rebates right now. To the tune of $15,000+. Anyone know why that is? My Toyota guy says it's because they can't sell them, but I don't think that's the case. Regardless, that makes an affordable car affordable for me. The other part of it that makes it affordable is the cheaper fuel. Although I think it would be around the same cost based on my averages.

I drive an average of 800 miles a month (based on the last 17 months). Based on that with an assumed fuel price of $2.65 /gallon I pay $88/ month for fuel.

We pay 5.9 cents per kWh here (which I think is on the lower side due to source). Is there a way to calculate what I would pay for electricity based on 800 miles /month? Also worth noting is the free public charging for 2 years (1 hour per day).

My Toyota guy is obviously wanting me to go that route and brings up range and vehicle size. A Prius is a nice sized car, but the fuel economy would be around double what I currently get. That would mean around $44 /month in fuel. The payments on that would be $143 /month (but that was calculated with $5,000 down).

I own my current car which is worth about $5,000. I'm hung up on the point that if I do a $6,000 down payment (trade and cash) and lease a car for 3 years my payments would be $151.05 /month. In reality they would be $317.71 due to the down payment. A 24 month loan makes my payments $104.27 /month. The residual value on the car after 36 months is $8,713 and $11,395 with 24 month. I could obviously finance that if I choose or turn the car in for something else.


My goal is to have low monthly expenses. The environmental impact part of it is also something I obviously take into account. I do like the "novelty" of having a full EV especially considering I have a degree in renewable energy. What have you guys experienced? I've been told most people lease these cars.
 
Conservatively, you should average 4 miles per kWh of battery capacity for most of the year. Depending on where you live, you'll likely get worse than that during winter months.

So, for sake of argument, 800 miles would require about 200 kWh of energy. At $0.06/kWh, that's $12 per month for electricity. During winter, $18 per month would be a good budget number.
 
TreeStar said:
I've been researching the 2017 versions of these cars quite a bit lately. The Leaf has absolutely amazing rebates right now. To the tune of $15,000+. Anyone know why that is? My Toyota guy says it's because they can't sell them, but I don't think that's the case.
Current inventory and impending release of the 2018 refresh? Apparently Nissan was going to release a 2016/2017 with 40kWh battery but in light of the Bolt, Tesla 3 and what not, they decided to release a 60kWh for a 200-240 mile range. This delayed their refresh and possibly we have excess inventory of 2016-2017 LEAFs.

I drive an average of 800 miles a month (based on the last 17 months). Based on that with an assumed fuel price of $2.65 /gallon I pay $88/ month for fuel.
We pay 5.9 cents per kWh here (which I think is on the lower side due to source). Is there a way to calculate what I would pay for electricity based on 800 miles /month? Also worth noting is the free public charging for 2 years (1 hour per day).

My Toyota guy is obviously wanting me to go that route and brings up range and vehicle size. A Prius is a nice sized car, but the fuel economy would be around double what I currently get. That would mean around $44 /month in fuel. The payments on that would be $143 /month (but that was calculated with $5,000 down).
With a hybrid, your options open up considerably. There's also the Bolt. It drives better, has better range and despite a very cheap interior, is the better electric car at the moment.

I own my current car which is worth about $5,000. I'm hung up on the point that if I do a $6,000 down payment (trade and cash) and lease a car for 3 years my payments would be $151.05 /month. In reality they would be $317.71 due to the down payment. A 24 month loan makes my payments $104.27 /month. The residual value on the car after 36 months is $8,713 and $11,395 with 24 month. I could obviously finance that if I choose or turn the car in for something else.
I subscribe to the 0 down lease for if a car should get written off from irreparable damage, I'm not out of $. However, there's also the "keep the monthly payment down in case of lease extension" school of thought. With the 2018 Leaf scheduled to be released soon, I'd look at a two year lease if I were you.

My goal is to have low monthly expenses. The environmental impact part of it is also something I obviously take into account. I do like the "novelty" of having a full EV especially considering I have a degree in renewable energy. What have you guys experienced? I've been told most people lease these cars.

My preference would be to lease these cars new or buy used for cheap. I don't see them as cars as much as they are technology on wheels. I've leased my current Leaf and will be curious what'll happen two years from now. We'll definitely have more options.
 
alozzy said:
Conservatively, you should average 4 miles per kWh of battery capacity for most of the year. Depending on where you live, you'll likely get worse than that during winter months.

So, for sake of argument, 800 miles would require about 200 kWh of energy. At $0.06/kWh, that's $12 per month for electricity. During winter, $18 per month would be a good budget number.

Hahahahaha. That's nutty. The sticker on the car says estimated $600 /year fuel cost. The guys at the dealer told me they hear $30-$40 /month.

I wasn't aware I was driving so little in comparison to others.
 
If you want a useful answer to your question, you have to tell us how far you drive a day at most, and under what circumstances (freeway, highway, local streets) and your location, so we know what your climate is like.
 
LeftieBiker said:
If you want a useful answer to your question, you have to tell us how far you drive a day at most, and under what circumstances (freeway, highway, local streets) and your location, so we know what your climate is like.
Yep.

OP: Can you update your location info via your user name in the upper right > User Control Panel > Profile tab? That way, we don't need to ask in future posts/threads or do sleuthing to deduce it.

What are your daily driving needs in terms of miles? How much city vs. highway? Will you have the ability to charge at your work/destinations?

As for 5.9 cents per kWh, have a link to the residential rate schedule for your utility? I suspect you're leaving off various bundled in charges/fees that you have to pay (e.g. distribution, transmission).
 
Your stated rate of 5.9 cents per kWh is partly why it's so cheap - most people pay at least double that rate. 800 miles per month isn't very much.
 
A gallon of gasoline contains about 33kWh. So at 5.9¢ you're paying about $1.95 per "gallon" for a car that gets over 100 "electric-MPG". The USA national average is around 11¢ per kWh I do believe, or about $3.63 per electric "gallon." That's still cheap considering the mileage.

Add to that that many charging stations are still free. So you either pay $1.95 per electric "gallon" or $0 per electric "gallon." Of course there are ones that do charge and can be quite expensive considering the amount of "fuel" they give you.

But in the end it's more about how and where you drive. You can only drive a Leaf so far on a charge, normally less than 100 miles, and it usually takes hours to "fill" back up. Add to that the deficient charging infrastructure. Would that cause problems with your lifestyle? What gets most people is that they are used to the internal combustion engine that you can fill up and go for miles on end. The Leaf takes some lifestyle adapting. For some that's not hard to do. For others it's the reason they would never consider an electric car.
 
I own a LEAF I bought used for $8300 in January
and a Prius Prime + I bought new in March for $25,500 (before TTL, state and federal tax credits)

For my household the LEAF is a fantastic second car. If I only owned one car it would be a Prius Prime.

If you really want to keep your monthly costs down, but a used car and remove collision insurance.
I pay $15 a month for our LEAF
 
I don't think you said what kind of Prius you were looking at, but if it were a Prime and your trips were generally ~20 miles, you may be able to get by with very little fuel, but still have the advantage of being able to drive on long trips.
If I were to only have one vehicle it would probably be a Prime, for a 2 or more vehicle person/family the Leaf really makes sense for 95% of your trips, up to 70 or so miles summer, as low as 40 miles in 0 or sub zero F temps.
Not as sure about the newer Prius's but the older ones have much more storage in the rear than a Leaf. I can haul things in our Prius that I could never in the Leaf, although I prefer the passenger comfort and general driveability of the Leaf, not a huge fan of CVTs.
 
jjeff said:
I don't think you said what kind of Prius you were looking at, but if it were a Prime and your trips were generally ~20 miles, you may be able to get by with very little fuel, but still have the advantage of being able to drive on long trips.
If I were to only have one vehicle it would probably be a Prime, for a 2 or more vehicle person/family the Leaf really makes sense for 95% of your trips, up to 70 or so miles summer, as low as 40 miles in 0 or sub zero F temps.
Not as sure about the newer Prius's but the older ones have much more storage in the rear than a Leaf. I can haul things in our Prius that I could never in the Leaf.
I am a gentle driver, but the Prime has been exceeding my expectations:

About 35 miles EV per charge
110 mpg on my 90 mile commute to work on one charge. EPA would estimate ~ 76 mpg for this trip.
The unsung other advantage of the Prime is advanced safety features, even in the base trim. Fantastic value overall.
 
Another thing to factor in is depreciation. Leafs depreciate quickly, and Toyotas in general do not. If you plan on keeping the car for 10 to 20 years then depreciation doesn't matter. If you buy used then depreciation is a good thing since you can pick up an ok Leaf for as low as $5,000. But when buying new, it's something to factor in.

According to Edmund's TCO (true cost to own) calculator a 2017 Nissan Leaf S will cost a total of $39,640 over the next 5 years ($24,079 of which would be from depreciation), whereas a 2017 Prius Prime will cost $37,407 over the next 5 years ($20,124 of which would be from depreciation).

When I bought my used 2013 Leaf SL in November, Edmund's quoted me at about $20,000 for five years. It was the cheapest figure on their calculator I could get out of any car at that time, even cheaper than a 2014 Mitsubishi Mirage. And their figure didn't even figure in the 24% Colorado tax rebate I'd get by buying a used Leaf from out-of-state. Of course the $8,000 I paid for the car can only depreciate $8,000 at most. In five years it might be worth only $2,000, but I'd only have lost $6,000 in depreciation. That's $14,000 in depreciation money and $17,000 total that I save from not buying a new Prius Prime. With that I can rent a car when I need to go far. Or put that money towards a homemade range extender for the Leaf.
 
IssacZachary said:
Another thing to factor in is depreciation. Leafs depreciate quickly, and Toyotas in general do not. If you plan on keeping the car for 10 to 20 years then depreciation doesn't matter. If you buy used then depreciation is a good thing since you can pick up an ok Leaf for as low as $5,000. But when buying new, it's something to factor in.

According to Edmund's TCO (true cost to own) calculator a 2017 Nissan Leaf S will cost a total of $39,640 over the next 5 years ($24,079 of which would be from depreciation), whereas a 2017 Prius Prime will cost $37,407 over the next 5 years ($20,124 of which would be from depreciation).

When I bought my used 2013 Leaf SL in November, Edmund's quoted me at about $20,000 for five years. It was the cheapest figure on their calculator I could get out of any car at that time, even cheaper than a 2014 Mitsubishi Mirage. And their figure didn't even figure in the 24% Colorado tax rebate I'd get by buying a used Leaf from out-of-state. Of course the $8,000 I paid for the car can only depreciate $8,000 at most. In five years it might be worth only $2,000, but I'd only have lost $6,000 in depreciation. That's $14,000 in depreciation money and $17,000 total that I save from not buying a new Prius Prime. With that I can rent a car when I need to go far. Or put that money towards a homemade range extender for the Leaf.

Speaking of Colorado, between state and federal rebates I will receive $9,200 in tax credits, so my cost to buy the Prime was $16,300 before state taxes. I'm pretty sure the car will be worth that much in five years when the tax credits are no longer available to new cars so my cost is at most zero for the car and likely actually profitable.

If I like the Model 3, I plan to buy it in 2018 and I'm pretty confident that my less than one year old Prime will be worth somewhere in the range of 20k - 22k in the secondary market of neighboring states that do not have Colorado's state tax credit and are currently selling the car new for ~ $28k. If I am fortunate I'll gain $12,500 in combined federal and state tax credits when I buy the $35k Model 3. I leave the rest of the arithmetic to you, if you dare.
 
SageBrush said:
Speaking of Colorado, between state and federal rebates I will receive $9,200 in tax credits, so my cost to buy the Prime was $16,300 before state taxes. I'm pretty sure the car will be worth that much in five years when the tax credits are no longer available to new cars so my cost is at most zero for the car and likely actually profitable.

If I like the Model 3, I plan to buy it in 2018 and I'm pretty confident that my less than one year old Prime will be worth somewhere in the range of 20k - 22k in the secondary market of neighboring states that do not have Colorado's state tax credit and are currently selling the car new for ~ $28k. If I am fortunate I'll gain $12,500 in combined federal and state tax credits when I buy the $35k Model 3. I leave the rest of the arithmetic to you, if you dare.
Perhaps, and it is all speculation. According to Edmunds you'll lose almost $12,000 in value in the first year. With the tax rebate you only lose $2,800 in value in the first year. But in reality you might be able to gain money like you said. And I really doubt I'll have spent $20,000 total on my Leaf in five years. Maybe I should sell it now and earn the $2,000 for not having to pay back the tax rebate.
 
IssacZachary said:
Perhaps, and it is all speculation. According to Edmunds you'll lose almost $12,000 in value in the first year. .
50% depreciation on the Prius Prime in one year ?!?

I'm not worried
 
Looks like I was wrong about the kWh price. I just did a quick search before. I'm not the one who pays the bill, and I don't recall how the breakdown works of actual cost. I know it's cheaper in the evening/night.

https://www.portlandgeneral.com/residential/power-choices/basic-service


I live in the Portland, Oregon area. My commute to the transit stop is 12 miles one way. This equates to 260 days out of the year only traveling 24 miles per day (not accounting for groceries, gym, or any other errand I need to run).

The house I will be moving to will have a 240volt plug I can use if I buy the Level 2 charger.


I was just looking at the base model Prius (One). They also have a certified used Prius for $16,300 that would make payments $180 /month.


I do like the idea of having a newer car under warranty. It's almost like an insurance policy becuase I know how much it will cost every month. As where that is an unknown factor with an older car not under warranty.
 
IssacZachary said:
Another thing to factor in is depreciation. Leafs depreciate quickly, and Toyotas in general do not. If you plan on keeping the car for 10 to 20 years then depreciation doesn't matter. If you buy used then depreciation is a good thing since you can pick up an ok Leaf for as low as $5,000. But when buying new, it's something to factor in.

According to Edmund's TCO (true cost to own) calculator a 2017 Nissan Leaf S will cost a total of $39,640 over the next 5 years ($24,079 of which would be from depreciation), whereas a 2017 Prius Prime will cost $37,407 over the next 5 years ($20,124 of which would be from depreciation).


This terrifies me and is making me think quit a bit. Like that totally blows my mind.

Perhaps a used Prius is a better route.



*EDIT: That's based on a full priced car, not an $18,165 car (rebates).

I ran it and got these figures. Total Cash Price: $30,817. True Cost To Own: $36,694. Depreciation being $22,705. That would tell me depreciation would be in theory only be $7,355. EDIT. Looking at 3 years the rebates essentially pay for the first 2 years of depreciation. The maintenance is also an odd factor on this. I looked at a used Prius and Leaf on this. You pay considerably more than what the car cost.

Do people really pay that little for insurance? I pay $1,314 a year!

This car on a 3 year lease has payments of $151.05 /month. The residual value (Nissan wholesale price) will be $8,714 after the lease.
 
TreeStar said:
This terrifies me and is making me think quit a bit. Like that totally blows my mind.

Perhaps a used Prius is a better route.



*EDIT: That's based on a full priced car, not an $18,165 car (rebates).

I ran it and got these figures. Total Cash Price: $30,817. True Cost To Own: $36,694. Depreciation being $22,705. That would tell me depreciation would be in theory only be $7,355. EDIT. Looking at 3 years the rebates essentially pay for the first 2 years of depreciation. The maintenance is also an odd factor on this. I looked at a used Prius and Leaf on this. You pay considerably more than what the car cost.

Do people really pay that little for insurance? I pay $1,314 a year!

This car on a 3 year lease has payments of $151.05 /month. The residual value (Nissan wholesale price) will be $8,714 after the lease.
The calculator isn't at all perfect, and the numbers can change dramatically depending on various factors. Some people pay next to nothing for insurance and others an arm and a leg. Another benefit of buying used (and cheaper initially) is that you can pay off the loan quicker and then go to minimum insurance requirements instead of having to be stuck with paying full coverage for a longer time. Interest is usually higher for used cars, but by paying it off quicker you can end up paying less for interest too. You also pay less taxes on older, cheaper cars.

So far I've heard and read that Leafs are extremely low maintenance and extremely reliable. (1 in 10,000 have had major problems compared to the average 1 in 400 for other new cars.) Prii are also low maintenance and reliable, but the Leaf still beats it IMO, unless you live in a hot area where your battery is going to die young. But that could be just as bad for a Prius as it is for Leaf, although I haven't researched it. As far as regular maintenance goes, no oil changes, no spark plugs, no engine filters, no nothing, ever in a Leaf, except brake fluid and coolant flushes (coolant flush after 150,000miles!). And about the only repair item on the list for the future is the traction battery. No timing belts, no catalytic converters, no O2 sensors, no EGR valves, no thermostats, no EVAP system parts, no rings, no pistons, no bearings (well, maybe bearings), no cam followers and no transmission fluid, solenoids or clutchs. Once these cars have over 200,000 miles on them and the price (hopefully) for traction batteries drops, some people may prefer an old Leaf needing just a battery over another 200,000 mile car that you're not sure if you're going to have change the engine or the transmission or anything else that's a part of an ICE vehicle. Of course we're still not sure how well the EV motor and inverters/chargers/controllers will hold up on our Leafs, but I'd be willing to bet they'll hold up much longer than any internal combustion engine or automatic transmission.

Here's the prices on a 2013 Leaf and a 2013 Prius Plugin:
Leaf: $22,789 over 5 years
Prius Plug: $27,212 over 5 years

Here's the prices on a 2011 Leaf and a 2011 Prius:
Leaf: $19,405 over 5 years
Prius: $23,426 over 5 years
 
It seems as if this is a great way to get a new car that's super low maintenance and absurd fuel economy along with not having to worry about it going out on me.

Now... 2 or 3 year lease... Hmmmm. Because after that time is up, I have to poo or get off the pot. Buying at that point does sound interesting, but if I do that, I should do the 36 month lease.

Don't these batters have like an 80,000 mile warranty?
 
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