ERG4ALL
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Location: Phoenix/Show Low AZ

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Mon Mar 21, 2011 3:43 pm

To clarify, I thought that the article was too one-sided because the topic headings (which I've subsequently edited them to be in bold as the article was originally written) don't address the topic with pros and cons but draw the conclusion for you. For example "Not Ready for Prime Time", "No Shortage of Negatives" (hmm... what about the positives?), "Devastating Conclusion", "Not too Late" (for golf carts).

I might mention that I looked up Mr. Peter Wells that was quoted in the article. Want to know where he works? He works at "Neftex Petroleum Consultants, Ltd" http://aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/confirmeds ... fm?bid=510. Now interestingly enough take a look at Trend Tracker and tell me if you think they are as critical of EVs as the article quotes. http://www.guardian.co.uk/electric-visi ... ctric-cars

I applaud NIssan for taking on Goliath.
Reserved 4/20/10, Ocean Blue Ordered SL 9/30/10, ESVE Installed 11/22/10, Delivered March 8th, 2011.

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davewill
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Location: San Diego, CA, US

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Mar 23, 2011 4:00 pm

As usual, this article assumes we can continue our current driving patterns forever, ignoring energy costs. It completely ignores the two most important factors:

1. The range WILL improve even if only incrementally.
2. Gasoline will only get more expensive if the peak oil claims are true.

Both of those make BEVs look better and better.

Luft
Posts: 418
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2011 1:06 pm
Location: Tenino, WA

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:38 am

Smells like FUD to me. I believe that EVs ARE ready for prime time. And that's not to say that an EVs are ready to replace all ICEs. But as fuel prices push up over the five dollar per gallon mark, people are going to start to notice EVs. They are going to start to figure out that they don't need an ICE vehicle 95% of the time.

The author of the article is an oil shill. It's in his own interest to put EVs in the worst possible light. I find it rather satisfying that the oil industry is concerned enough to hire a hatchet man to smear EVs. It tells me that they know they are about to lose big time. :lol:

RSH
Posts: 58
Joined: Tue May 18, 2010 8:31 pm

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:56 am

ERG4ALL wrote:This appeared in the Detroit News. Comments?

"Neil Winton

"The technology would be very suited for a golf cart," said Roland Berger's Blanchet, "but the car manufacturers are not in that market today. They are selling volume and they will hope that short range mobility will be more than a niche market. They aren't going to make a car that isn't a car."

Neil Winton can be reached at: "neil.winton@btinternet.com"
Ford Think Neighborhood cars, one of which I own, have been around since 2002. Golf carts have been roaming neighborhoods for years now. Mr. Winston's vision of the future could eventually become part of the list of 10 stupidest statements about the future, which currently includes statements such as (taken from The Seven Habits of Successful Teens):

10. In 1977: "There is no reason for any person to have a computer in their home."
9. 1911: "Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value."
8. 1967: "Man will never reach the moon regardless of scientific advances."
7. 1946: "Television won't be able to hold onto any market after six months because people will get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
6. 1962: "We don't like their sound. Guitar groups are on the way out."
5. 1969: "For the majority of people, tobacco has a beneficial effect."
4. 1876: "The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
3. 2nd Century: "The Earth is the center of the universe."
2. July 4, 1776: "Nothing of importance happened today."
1. 1899: "Everything that can be invented has been invented."

Each of these statements was made by a mover and shaker of the field at that time, such as #5 was said by the U.S. Surgeon General, and so on.
Blue Ocean SL + L3, mats, eco
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evnow
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Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:08 pm

Unfortunately - most of these writers already form an opinion and write a piece that supports the opinion. That is the difference between these kinds of "research" and real reasearch.

Anyone who says "oil runs out by, say, 2050" can't be taken seriously.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

thankyouOB
Posts: 3583
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Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:19 pm

can someone tell me why it makes sense that our government subsidizes - through tax purchase incentives -- having a 110 woman drive a 3-ton car to get a bag of groceries or pick up two children or a 150-pound man who drives a jacked-up all-terrain vehicle that never goes off the blacktop?

Until we get a handle on such abuses and stop the tax credits for vehicles such as this, there is small hope of getting us to cut our oil wars and oil consumption.

here is a list of some of the clients of the company that authored that article:
K PLC Accenture PLC Akzo Nobel
AM (EMAP Automotive) A T Kearney Audatex UK Ltd
Audi AG Automotive World AutoExCeL 2005
Automotive Distributors Federation Bain & Company Bank of Scotland
BMW Bodyshop Magazine Boston Consultancy
Caravan Club Carter & Carter Castrol Business Services
Citroen DaimlerChrysler Delloite & Touche
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein DuPont UK Ltd Ethical Corporation Institute
ETTAR Factoring Services Group GMAC
GM Daewoo Hartwell plc Haymarket
Honda ICDP Inchcape Plc
International Labour Organisation KPMG Lease Plan
Lex Vehicle Leasing McKinsey & Company Motorhome Information Service
Motorola Nissan Europe PSA Peugeot Citroen
Porsche AG PriceWaterhouseCoopers R.L. Polk
Renault UK RiverSimple LLP Royal & Sun Alliance
Toyota Valeo VW Group

Lots of oil, lots of existing car companies; no nissan, no solar. lotta spin for existing clients, who include only one or two auto companies even playing with EV.
may reserve/delivery 4/30/11
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ECOtality/LADWP/ Blink 4/4/11
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hill
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Location: Lake Forest, CA

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:29 am

davewill wrote:As usual, this article assumes we can continue our current driving patterns forever, ignoring energy costs. It completely ignores the two most important factors:

1. The range WILL improve even if only incrementally.
2. Gasoline will only get more expensive if the peak oil claims are true.

Both of those make BEVs look better and better.
Well you're not supposed to factor reality into the formula. ;)
Anyway, here's the part that seemed the MOST corny to me:
" ..... Business strategy consultancy Roland Berger reckons electric cars will face a crisis by around 2015, when the limited demand created by early adopters becomes more like a mass market, and electric cars have to compete with internal combustion engines and plug-in hybrids on level terms. ...."
Limited demand? Um, 20,000 list holders? and the list closes down because it gets too huge? Wow ... if that's a limited demand, I'm sure glad demand isn't moderate or huge.
:D

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davewill
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Location: San Diego, CA, US

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:34 am

hill wrote:
" ..... Business strategy consultancy Roland Berger reckons electric cars will face a crisis by around 2015, when the limited demand created by early adopters becomes more like a mass market, and electric cars have to compete with internal combustion engines and plug-in hybrids on level terms. ...."
Limited demand? Um, 20,000 list holders? and the list closes down because it gets too huge? Wow ... if that's a limited demand, I'm sure glad demand isn't moderate or huge.
:D
I actually agree with him, but it's not news of any sort. There is a group of early adopters that the 20,000 are part of. After that, EVs WILL have to demonstrate their mettle, or face yet another die off. I happen to believe that we are looking at the right time for EVs, but there are plenty of things that still need to occur. IMHO, work place charging may be the most important.
2014 Rav4 EV, Blizzard Pearl White
2011 LEAF SL w/QC, Blue Ocean, returned at end of lease

smkettner
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Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:44 am

The real shake out will be when every dealer has ten on the lot to present to the masses in a more typical method of buy & sell of vehicles.
Very very few consumers would put their name on a list and wait a year or more for a car. Especially that cannot even be readily test driven.

IMO the 20,000 reservationists do not reflect anything to the potential market demand.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
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SteveInSeattle
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Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:47 am

I think this is the absolute KEY question that cannot be answered now-- and it is the question that other manufacturers are asking themselves before they decide whether to commit to BEV's.

If I ran a car company (which I think I am perfectly qualified to do-- but no one in the industry seems to agree) I would bet more on plug-in hybrids.. especially because once the PIH is designed it can more easily be converted to full-electric than the other way around. But I would want to see the post-tax credit demand before I spent billions on R&D.

I am pretty sure Nissan/Renault committed to BEVs for the halo effect on their brands and not because they were certain they could make a profit. They were tired of the halo effect Toyota got from the Prius.
2013 lease ended, purchased a red 2015 SL Premium from Ray Ishak at Magic Nissan. Good deal + rebates + $7500 tax credit + no sales tax = Leaf for Sentra money.

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