Smidge204
Posts: 940
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:42 pm

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 12:45 pm

hill wrote:Limited demand? Um, 20,000 list holders? and the list closes down because it gets too huge? Wow ... if that's a limited demand, I'm sure glad demand isn't moderate or huge.
:D
To play devil's advocate here:

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 6,813,369 passenger vehicles were sold in the US in 2008. 20,000 represents ~0.3% of that volume. In this perspective, that's VERY limited demand.

But with respect to this:
hill wrote:
" ... and electric cars have to compete with internal combustion engines and plug-in hybrids on level terms. ...."
I think it's going to be just the opposite: Gasoline powered vehicles are going to have to compete with BEVs in the daily commuter/city car market where BEVs already have an advantage, and that advantage will only increase with time. The only real advantage ICE vehicle have in that area is sticker price.

You'll probably never convince the people who buy an F150 pickup because they might one day need to haul something for a friend that they can get by with an BEV though.
=Smidge=

ERG4ALL
Posts: 603
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:17 am
Delivery Date: 10 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 000404
Location: Phoenix/Show Low AZ

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 12:49 pm

I believe that the next three years will be critical and will be successful:

1) If employers and some major retailers install an adequate supply of chargers,
2) If a 200 mile battery and car at a reasonable cost is on the market.
3) If gas continues its inexorable rise.

If those things happen then the oil industry will have a very difficult time holding back the floodwaters. Right now with some "spin master journalists" they are trying to put their finger in the dyke. A lot of "ifs" but number two may be the most difficult to achieve.
Reserved 4/20/10, Ocean Blue Ordered SL 9/30/10, ESVE Installed 11/22/10, Delivered March 8th, 2011.

User avatar
planet4ever
Posts: 4674
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2010 9:53 pm
Delivery Date: 02 May 2011
Leaf Number: 1537
Location: Morgan Hill, CA, south of San Jose

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 2:59 pm

ERG4ALL wrote:1) If employers and some major retailers install an adequate supply of chargers,
I'm sure you mean charging docks, not chargers. The only place chargers are needed is on the freeways. But I don't think even 240v charging docks are needed, or at least not many of them. 95% of all drivers could get by on L1 charging, except for long trips, if they could plug in wherever they park. And businesses can install hundreds of 120v plugs for the cost of one 240v charging dock.

Ray
End of April 2013: Traded my 2011 SL for a 2013 S with charge pkg.

smkettner
Posts: 7490
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 3:43 pm

planet4ever wrote:
ERG4ALL wrote:1) If employers and some major retailers install an adequate supply of chargers,
I'm sure you mean charging docks, not chargers. The only place chargers are needed is on the freeways. But I don't think even 240v charging docks are needed, or at least not many of them. 95% of all drivers could get by on L1 charging, except for long trips, if they could plug in wherever they park. And businesses can install hundreds of 120v plugs for the cost of one 240v charging dock.

Ray
Or at least just a dumbell 16a 240v EVSE or even 7a 240v. 240v still makes sense to reduce copper and voltage drop running electric out to the lot. If they get to be everywhere it will about make CW obsolete except for navigation.

The companies that supply EVSE seem to envision collecting money at every spot and they are trying to be the market leader in supplying power and a network of EVSE.
I think the whole model will collapse within a few years once business owners figure out they are not needed.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

palmermd
Posts: 2627
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:19 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 1100011011
Location: Hermosa Beach, CA

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 6:24 pm

planet4ever wrote:
ERG4ALL wrote:1) If employers and some major retailers install an adequate supply of chargers,
I'm sure you mean charging docks, not chargers.
Ray
Given that my car only has a 3kW charger, I'd like to see some of my customers install chargers. Even a small DC semi-quick charge station (perhaps 15-20kW) would be awesome. If some of my further away customers had this, I could sell my Prius.
Michael

Leaf from 31 March 2011 - Traded 18 April 2019 for Tesla Model 3 Unicorn
Driving electric since 1996


Leaf Bar Loss

User avatar
Nekota
Posts: 616
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:16 pm
Delivery Date: 12 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2182
Location: Sunnyvale, CA

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:28 pm

This question and debate will go for many years and just some folks will prefer ICE as a matter of choice just like some prefer manual shifting over automatic. But I like pointing out how cell phones are replacing land lines as a disruptive technology and EV have the same potential to replace ICE vehicles but it will be a long process.
Res 20Apr2010 / Ordered 27Sep2010 / Delivered 12May2011

PV System

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14954
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Thu Apr 14, 2011 6:49 am

ok, another one of these. in the past 12 weeks, 54% of my driving has been done on the Leaf. now, this is winter so the longer trips are not as common. and it has nothing to do with weather. we dont have real bad weather here so travel issues are simply not.

its a light thing. in the winter, its dark when i go to work, its dark when i come home. yes, i am that far north. In the summer, its light 5 hours after i get home. hard to NOT want to go somewhere. So, the Leaf's mileage will certainly go up in summer, just as its percentage of our vehicle miles will go down... but what does all that have to do with this article?

well, the article has nothing really to do with reality, so why should my post?

the article makes a lot of valid points

one person stated, but did not elaborate. since the article is all garbage, i am afraid YOU need to elaborate because i read thru it twice (yes, it was painful) and found nothing

people do not welcome change and the reason why is that successful money companies foster the "status quo" and that is all this guy is doing. there is no doubt in my mind, he works for oil.

so, we can follow his advice which is all the article has. there ARE NO POINTS made here. it is all speculation.

so we can follow his advice which apparently means to allow car companies to invest all their money into improving technology to meet our transportation needs. (like what have they been doing since the mid 70's when the Oil Crisis first became news)

or we can do what we already suspect to be the right thing and determine that what we have been led to do over the pas 35 years aint working and we need to go another direction.

now, i should have gone thru and done a cost analysis on those $7500 government perks and determined how wise that was...

hmm, 1500 miles a month that is a 1½ barrels a month on 30 mpg car which is 18 barrels a year at $1800 to a foreign country, or we could take the cost of electricity which would be about hmmm.... $1800 A YEAR paid to an American entity which will pay an American worker who will pay American taxes who will also buy from an American store who will employ American Workers, who will pay American taxes...


**edit** just updated stats. so after 87 days of ownership and 3178 miles driven, i am ALMOST up to the cost of a single barrel of oil. Just hit $100 in electricity spent to power my Leaf. now i know all you Solar Jockeys are LMAO at me for blowing my money, but for you others who think this guy has valid points, lets post your gas bill for the past 3 months
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 11,333.1 mi, 93.73% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GaslessInSeattle
Posts: 1566
Joined: Fri May 06, 2011 2:15 pm
Delivery Date: 29 Apr 2011
Leaf Number: 850

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Mon May 23, 2011 11:17 pm

ERG4ALL wrote:...
"For electric-vehicle sales to grow significantly several things need to happen. Vehicles need to be much lighter, battery technology needs to be cheaper and offer greater performance, urban authorities have to promote zero emission zones, industrial capacity to support the technologies needs to be created, petroleum prices have to rise, renewable energy prices have to fall and consumers have to be re-educated in terms of how they think about personal mobility.
....

Neil Winton can be reached at: "neil.winton@btinternet.com"
I want to applaud Neil for sticking his neck out like this for his fellow cronies in the oil industry. This article and ones like it will surely become classic relics of a bygone era in short order and stand to embarrass their authors in perpetuity.

Oh I guess anyone who owns a Leaf at this point will be considered a cool-aid drinking fanatic that can't see anything objectively. Call me what you will, but after just 700 miles on our Leaf and starting to crunch the numbers, it appears to me that this article is wildly biased and fundamentally uninformed. IMHO, economics are going to drive the ICE off the road, driving EV, at least for now, is way less expensive!

I have never really analyzed my driving habits until now, but it's becoming abundantly clear that the vast majority of my driving is remarkably short distances, as has been claimed by many. Even with an L1 charger, if I simply charge the car whenever I can, I'm good to go for most of what my wife and I want to do. Turns out we even have an outlet built in the side of our post light... on a 20 amp switch, it's charging out there right now on L1, from our post lamp!!! We've plugged it in three times today without thinking much about the end and start time of charge or the amount of total capacity, as each trip we did was well within capacity... we simply did what we wanted to do. I agree with Ray in his previous post, simply providing 20 amp plugs at curbs might just be the best way to provide simple, cheap and abundant options for folks as charging while I'm shopping would add up to even more freedom. But it's hardly needed with the capacity already provided by the first round of Leafs (assuming it's a families second car). The most eye popping thing that has me jumping up and down is the realization that I'm spending something like the equivalent of 70 cents a gallon for "gas"!!! And I'm lucky enough to live in an area where, whith a simple call to my utility, I have signed up to have 100% of my electricity generated by Geothermal, Wind, Bio-Gas and solar.

Neil Winton, I don't know what planet you're living on, but surely you've got a horse in the race that you are not telling us about. The Leaf is light enough, the battery technology is doable in terms of cost and performance, the electric grid is already there and ready for relatively simple modifications to make it even more available than gas stations are today, petroleum prices have risen to alarming heights priming consumer demand for an alternative, renewable electric energy prices have fallen to just over 10% above dirty coal, at least her in Washington state, and I for one am getting a fast re-education about how I think about my personal mobility.

I think the timing is perfect for EV right now, a veritable perfect storm of forces could easily cause this technology to take off.

I have to commend Nissan for taking the substantial risk and pioneering this product for the mass market, so far, it appears to be a job well done!

g
Gasless: Silver 2012 SL, traded in for Lease on 1/13
Tesla S P85, Gray, pano, carbon fiber, took delivery: 2-9-13... LOVE this car!
9.8 kW PV Solar installed 9/12, http://www.westseattlenaturalenergy.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14954
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Tue May 24, 2011 6:51 am

the City needs to get on the ball, put these L1 charge stations up like parking meters. charge a rate that will cover cost, maintenance and billing and run with it. we already have parking enforcement. they could double as EV enforcement.

if L1 (yes the slow thing) with J1772 connector (do not want to haul my EVSE around!!) was widely available, i could easily make my range 150 miles or more.

right now, i have found that the range of the Leaf is a bit short of a handful of people i talk to and its just a little bit. my IP chief has a 42 mile one way commute and its freeway with half being 70 mph. so the Leaf would barely make it in the summer at 60 mph. but if he could L1 it at work and on various trips he is occasionally required to make, then it would work for him

being in Olympia, i find a lot of people commute from the outer counties especially from the Aberdeen and Centralia areas, both of which are just outside the Leafs viable range.

we need to get the state in to start requiring employers to provide at least L1
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 11,333.1 mi, 93.73% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hal
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:16 pm
Delivery Date: 0- 9-2011

Re: Battery-electric cars will struggle...

Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:43 pm

Gas cars struggled during transition from horses. Same for electric now. Manufacturers need market data from early adopters to help create the next generation of EV. So the article is short sighted. Eventually oil will go away. The cost to run personal cars maybe too high in the future. So we will probably go back mass transit and some electric cars. Who knows, horses may return. In any case waiting until the crisis happens is too late. Nissan and others are seeing the writing on the wall and want to get in the game early. Great job Nissan!

Return to “New Members & Newbie Questions”