GRA
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GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pm

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:18 am

GRA wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pm
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:18 am
GRA wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pm
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now. Whenever BEVs have achieved price/performance parity, no one's going to pay more for an ICE unless there's simply no charging infrastructure for them to use. As it is, 59% (worldwide) said they'd prefer a non-hybrid ICE for their next car, which is down from 71% last year - U.S. consumers were less enthusiastic at 65% non-hybrid ICE/35% AFV. Course, that doesn't mean the 41% or 35% are actually going to buy an AFV.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:39 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:18 am
GRA wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pm
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.
It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pm
Whenever BEVs have achieved price/performance parity, no one's going to pay more for an ICE unless there's simply no charging infrastructure for them to use.
For some people, TCO price/performance parity has happened. Some corner cases will stay with ICE as long as they can. Some for price/performance, some for Tradition.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:52 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:39 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:18 am


Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.
It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:39 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pm
Whenever BEVs have achieved price/performance parity, no one's going to pay more for an ICE unless there's simply no charging infrastructure for them to use.
For some people, TCO price/performance parity has happened. Some corner cases will stay with ICE as long as they can. Some for price/performance, some for Tradition.

The number who will stay with them for tradition is likely to be a very small niche, especially as the boomers stop driving, whether entirely, or due to switching to AVs. As for the rest, most people aren't into cars enough to care - they just want to get where they're going, quickly and conveniently as possible at a reasonable cost, and they'll choose whichever tech allows them to do that in their situation.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:18 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:52 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:39 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pm
Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.
It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 92% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 84% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 68% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 36% of the market?
"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:42 am

Keep dreaming DoE thinks that around 70% of vehicles sold in 2030 will still be straight gas burners. With 10% being hybrids and plug ins and 20% being all electric.

I would like to see more electrics faster, every electric vehicle sold is that much more gasoline and oil that can be exported.
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:59 pm

Maybe the government really needs to dump the EV rebates and tax credits and get a realistic carbon tax on gasoline (like $3/gallon or more). That would help swing the market far better.
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GRA
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:18 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:52 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:39 pm

It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 92% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 84% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 68% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 36% of the market?
"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Until we're talking about 50% BEVs the significance is limited, although I suspect we may see an inflection point at around 15%. The question is whether we have enough time for this to happen gradually before we cross the climate tipping point and are stuck with a new one for hundreds of years or more - I hope so, but suspect not.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:03 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:18 pm
"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Until we're talking about 50% BEVs the significance is limited,
Limited to whom? If the ICE makers wait for 50% BEVs they are gone. Or even 15% BEVs. Actually, it is already getting close to the time for the ICE makers to panic, considering the lead time needed for development, design and ramping up production. If they get too far behind, they are gone. Oh yes, not right away. Gradually, then suddenly.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm
although I suspect we may see an inflection point at around 15%.
What exactly do you mean by an "inflection point"? How about showing what it would look like with an example.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm
The question is whether we have enough time for this to happen gradually before we cross the climate tipping point and are stuck with the new one for hundreds of years or more - I hope so, but suspect not.
That's a different question. Electric cars are going to be the cars of the future because they are better as cars, not because of environmental reasons. Even looking at environmental reasons, dirty air in cities is probably a larger reason in many cases. Subsidies and mandates for environmental reasons are just speeding up the transition to EVs, not doing something new or different.

Climate is a slowly reacting beast. Not decades, like major economic changes or hundreds of years, but more likely many thousands of years. The E-folding time of Carbon outside of geologic storage is around 100k years. Better like the new climate.
WetEV
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