https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling
Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Didn't ask the correct question, long term.GRA wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pmhttps://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling
Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
WetEV wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:18 amDidn't ask the correct question, long term.GRA wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pmhttps://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling
Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.
It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.GRA wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:15 pmWetEV wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:18 amDidn't ask the correct question, long term.GRA wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:04 pmhttps://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... h-stalling
Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.
Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.
Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.
For some people, TCO price/performance parity has happened. Some corner cases will stay with ICE as long as they can. Some for price/performance, some for Tradition.
WetEV wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:39 pmIt was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.
What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 92% of the market?GRA wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:52 pm
Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?
"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.
-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
WetEV wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:18 pmWhat about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 92% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 84% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 68% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 36% of the market?
"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.
-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Limited to whom? If the ICE makers wait for 50% BEVs they are gone. Or even 15% BEVs. Actually, it is already getting close to the time for the ICE makers to panic, considering the lead time needed for development, design and ramping up production. If they get too far behind, they are gone. Oh yes, not right away. Gradually, then suddenly.
What exactly do you mean by an "inflection point"? How about showing what it would look like with an example.
That's a different question. Electric cars are going to be the cars of the future because they are better as cars, not because of environmental reasons. Even looking at environmental reasons, dirty air in cities is probably a larger reason in many cases. Subsidies and mandates for environmental reasons are just speeding up the transition to EVs, not doing something new or different.