Oilpan4
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Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:55 am

Oh yes tax everything and every one till it's successful.
If electric vehicles really are better then why all the taxes and credits?

Let's just wait till the next ipcc report comes out in 2022 before making any rash decision.
I hear it's going to be a good one.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

WetEV
Posts: 3304
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:14 am

Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:55 am
Oh yes tax everything and every one till it's successful.
If electric vehicles really are better then why all the taxes and credits?

Let's just wait till the next ipcc report comes out in 2022 before making any rash decision.
I hear it's going to be a good one.
What are you going to do when Putin dies?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 11367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:37 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:03 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:18 pm

Until we're talking about 50% BEVs the significance is limited,
Limited to whom? If the ICE makers wait for 50% BEVs they are gone. Or even 15% BEVs. Actually, it is already getting close to the time for the ICE makers to panic, considering the lead time needed for development, design and ramping up production. If they get too far behind, they are gone. Oh yes, not right away. Gradually, then suddenly.

Your original point was that
Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.
Only when ICEs start to seem dumb to a majority of people will your question be the right (significant) one to ask.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:03 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm
although I suspect we may see an inflection point at around 15%.
What exactly do you mean by an "inflection point"? How about showing what it would look like with an example.
The point at which there's a noticeable kink in the adoption line, when the general public suddenly starts to say "okay, a BEV might make sense for me", and then they actually buy one, at a rapidly increasing rate.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:03 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:49 pm
The question is whether we have enough time for this to happen gradually before we cross the climate tipping point and are stuck with the new one for hundreds of years or more - I hope so, but suspect not.
That's a different question. Electric cars are going to be the cars of the future because they are better as cars, not because of environmental reasons. Even looking at environmental reasons, dirty air in cities is probably a larger reason in many cases. Subsidies and mandates for environmental reasons are just speeding up the transition to EVs, not doing something new or different.

Climate is a slowly reacting beast. Not decades, like major economic changes or hundreds of years, but more likely many thousands of years. The E-folding time of Carbon outside of geologic storage is around 100k years. Better like the new climate.
The problem is, as always, that until the public thinks they're better cars (or the government gives them no choice in the matter, as is only beginning to happen in few places), adoption growth will remain far too slow to help much.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
Gold Member
Posts: 1039
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:53 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:14 am
Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:55 am
Oh yes tax everything and every one till it's successful.
If electric vehicles really are better then why all the taxes and credits?

Let's just wait till the next ipcc report comes out in 2022 before making any rash decision.
I hear it's going to be a good one.
What are you going to do when Putin dies?
Celebrate.
So you can't answer the question?
What are you so worried about?
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

WetEV
Posts: 3304
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:33 am

Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:53 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:14 am
What are you going to do when Putin dies?
Celebrate.
But Trump will be so sad... Don't you feel his pain?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

Oilpan4
Gold Member
Posts: 1039
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:07 pm

I guess you didn't see the last debate, they don't need the Russians this time.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

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