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evnow
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sat Oct 02, 2010 5:03 pm

JPVLeaf wrote:Sure, that's always the case. Then, at a minimum, hope the current administration remains in place longer than not if the proposed CAFE std actually 'passes'.
But the current administration won't be around after 2016.
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JPVLeaf
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sat Oct 02, 2010 5:23 pm

evnow wrote:
JPVLeaf wrote:Sure, that's always the case. Then, at a minimum, hope the current administration remains in place longer than not if the proposed CAFE std actually 'passes'.
But the current administration won't be around after 2016.
Yeah, so now what? The rest is, as you mentioned, largely about the game of politics. 'They' won't pass the kind of 'things' that are needed to 'solve the problem' by ... pick a date ... 2025 ... for fear of the next election. So, what do you do? I believe you gotta do something, even if that means not getting all that you want or all that is necessary.

For the sake of PO, and dependence on FO, and AGW of course one might wish someone could wave a wand and it just happens. But, I don't see that happening in these times, in the US. And, until it does, I'll consider incremental progress (especially those that are greater than past increments, if any at all) as good news.
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planet4ever
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sat Oct 02, 2010 9:04 pm

62 MPG doesn't strike me as all that extreme, looking 15 years into the future. After all, if I owned a Versa and a LEAF and drove them equal distances, wouldn't I get an average of about 60 MPG? So it sounds like all Nissan has to do is trim back its sales of SUVs and build up its LEAF to a bit over half its total sales. Go LEAF!
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sat Oct 02, 2010 10:14 pm

planet4ever wrote:62 MPG doesn't strike me as all that extreme, looking 15 years into the future. After all, if I owned a Versa and a LEAF and drove them equal distances, wouldn't I get an average of about 60 MPG? So it sounds like all Nissan has to do is trim back its sales of SUVs and build up its LEAF to a bit over half its total sales. Go LEAF!
I suspect that's because you are already a convinced green-car consumer. However, your average Joe-six-pack (no offense to Joe-six-pack) car buyer is no where near as green as those on this forum. Quite the opposite. Spend some time in the comment section your standard online 'news' sites and you discover that quite quickly. Then, there are those that like the idea of getting beyond oil, but don't want to pay a cent more than the ICE-equivalent, and they don't get or care much about the long term cost savings of EVs or PHEVs. Major auto manufacturers will have to capture a share of these consumer groups too to get to a CAFE of 62 mpg. They won't be able to sell cars to just us EV enthusiasts that happen to be chomping at the bit to get off oil (i.e., gasoline). It's certainly not a shoo-in.
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garygid
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sat Oct 02, 2010 10:21 pm

If they sell 100 ICEs at 25 mpg, and 100 EVs at 1,000,000,000 mpg (no gas), how does that average out?
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62

Sat Oct 02, 2010 10:39 pm

garygid wrote:If they sell 100 ICEs at 25 mpg, and 100 EVs at 1,000,000,000 mpg (no gas), how does that average out?
I'm not sure. I think they're still fine tuning that one.
Should one consider the mpg-e, or not?
Last edited by JPVLeaf on Sat Jul 23, 2011 11:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
-jp
.
R 4/20/10, RAQ 9/3/10,
O 9/10/10, D 6/6/11
72k mi @ 50 mo, #1 [new batt @ 39 mos.]
33k mi @ 34 mo, #2

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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62

Sat Oct 02, 2010 11:27 pm

garygid wrote:If they sell 100 ICEs at 25 mpg, and 100 EVs at 1,000,000,000 mpg (no gas), how does that average out?
A little math exercise .... After you determine the mpg-e, if in fact that is what will be used for the EV, please extend the following method to include such EV's. The solution is not initially obvious.
excerpted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... el_Economy, Calculation ....

Fleet fuel economy is calculated using a harmonic mean, not a simple arithmetic mean (average) – namely, the reciprocal of the average of the reciprocal values. For a fleet composed of four different kinds of vehicle A, B, C and D, produced in numbers nA, nB, nC and nD, with fuel economies fA, fB, fC and fD, the CAFE would be:
{nA+nB+nC+nD}/{nA/fA+nB/fB+nC/fC+nD/fD}

For example, a fleet of 4 vehicles getting 15, 13, 17, and 100 mpg has a CAFE of slightly less than 19 mpg:
4/{1/15+1/13+1/17+1/100}=18.83

While the arithmetic mean fuel economy of the fleet is just over 36 mpg:
{15+13+17+100}/{4}=36.25

The harmonic mean captures the fuel economy of driving each car in the fleet for the same number of miles, while the arithmetic mean captures the fuel economy of driving each car using the same amount of gas (i.e. the 13 mpg vehicle would travel 13 miles with one gallon while the 100 mpg vehicle would travel 100 miles).

For the fuel economy calculation for alternative fuel vehicles, a gallon of alternative fuel is deemed to contain 15% fuel (which is approximately the amount of gasoline in a gallon of E85) as an incentive to develop alternative fuel vehicles. The mileage for dual-fuel vehicles, such as E85 capable models, is computed as the average of its alternative fuel rating—divided by 0.15 (equal to multiplying by 6.666) -- and its gasoline rating. Thus an E85-capable vehicle that gets 15 mpg on E-85 and 25 mpg on gasoline might logically be rated at 20 mpg. But in fact the average, for CAFE purposes, despite perhaps only one percent of the fuel used in E85-capable vehicles is actually E85, is computed as 100 mpg for E-85 and the standard 25 mpg for gasoline, or 62.5 mpg. However, the total increase in a manufacturer's average fuel economy rating due to dual-fueled vehicles cannot exceed 1.2mpg.
Last edited by JPVLeaf on Sun Oct 02, 2011 12:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
-jp
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R 4/20/10, RAQ 9/3/10,
O 9/10/10, D 6/6/11
72k mi @ 50 mo, #1 [new batt @ 39 mos.]
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planet4ever
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sun Oct 03, 2010 12:37 am

garygid wrote:If they sell 100 ICEs at 25 mpg, and 100 EVs at 1,000,000,000 mpg (no gas), how does that average out?
50 mpg. As JPVLeaf pointed out, you "average" by using the harmonic mean. It's really not all that complicated.
2/(1/25 + 0) = 50

You may find it easier to understand if you convert to gallons/100 miles:
ICE=100/25 = 4 g/100mi; EV=100/infinity = 0g/100mi
Average g/100mi = (4 + 0)/2 = 2
Average mpg = 100/2 = 50
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sun Oct 03, 2010 1:07 am

JPVLeaf wrote:I suspect that's because you are already a convinced green-car consumer. However, your average Joe-six-pack (no offense to Joe-six-pack) car buyer is no where near as green as those on this forum.
Quite true. My moniker here gives you my position loud and clear. My only quibble with the 2nd part of your statement would be the word "is". Being as green as I am I truly believe that 15 years from now global warming will have become an unavoidable fact for almost all Americans, and they will be running scared of where the earth is headed.
JPVLeaf wrote:Then, there are those that like the idea of getting beyond oil, but don't want to pay a cent more than the ICE-equivalent, and they don't get or care much about the long term cost savings of EVs or PHEVs.
That, my friend, will be easy. With gasoline at $15/gallon and heading up fast, and the government spending trillions trying frantically to stop the greenhouse effect they should have stopped twenty years earlier, the economic choice will be simple.

The hard part will be the rednecks who refuse to give up their monster trucks, the sports fans who gather to watch petroleum-powered cars roar around a track at 240 MPH, and the rich who can't imagine life without their private planes.

/Steps down off the soap box, picks it up, and walks away crying.
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Re: White House May Seek to set 2025 CAFE Standards up to 62 mpg

Sun Oct 03, 2010 2:47 am

Here, gas and diesel is about $8 per gallon! And we produce it! And I haven't heard a politician from any party say anything about it for years. Some years ago one of the populist parties wanted to reduce tax, so that the price was $7.50 per gallon!
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