GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:35 pm

smkettner wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:26 pm
"People who can't charge at home or work or other frequent location likely shouldn't own one at this time, as isn't convenient"

"Yup."

And if they want to advocate for clean air they should consider moving to a facility that has charging access. People need to be part of the solution.... not just expecting more government money to build infrastructure.

Or they can do even better, and move to a facility that allows them to do all their routine errands on foot and the rest plus commuting by bike, just using a car for those trips where it's essential, which is far less expensive, less polluting and less energy intensive as well as healthier for the individual.

But if they can't or aren't willing to do that, and must do all of that by car, then a PEV/FCEV may be the best that they can do.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:29 pm

Both IEVS:
Trevor Milton Reveals More About Nikola Badger Truck Sales And Operation

https://insideevs.com/news/435512/trevo ... operation/

The electric pickup truck will be able to operate 100 percent on the fuel cells, battery, or both. . . .

Apart from that, Milton said the BEV version of the Badger would be sold in all US states by 2022. The FCEV will not: it will only be sold in the same places where Nikola will place its first hydrogen stations, which are linked to the deal it has with Anheuser-Busch Inbev.

“The fuel cell will be on a slow roll-out plan. It is going to go on the markets where the fuel cell semi-truck and hydrogen stations are going in. Why? Because we will use all stations as our main production and we will distribute the hydrogen to the cities for people to be able to fill up the Badger. So most likely we will be starting in California, heavily, and moving into other cities and they’ll follow the routes of the Anheuser-Busch contracts that we have for the fuel cell semi-truck. If you want to know where Badger is going to be released in the fuel cell version first, you can follow the routes where the Anheuser-Busch distribution models are. . . ."

Nikola’s Coolidge Plant Groundbreaking Reveals Ambitious Plans For Hydrogen

https://insideevs.com/news/435488/nikol ... gen-plans/

The refueling stations for the company will be open to anyone in need of clean hydrogen. . . .

Perhaps we should have focused on the fact that the Coolidge factory will be able to produce 35,000 Class 8 commercial semi-trucks every year in two shifts. It will also employ 1,800 workers and be ready to get started by the end of 2021. The first truck to be produced will be the Nikola Tre, while the Nikola Two is scheduled for 2023. However, the hydrogen story really caught our attention.

We already told you that all the hydrogen Nikola aims to produce at its refueling stations. So far, Nikola bought five electrolyzers from Nel, each able to produce eight tons of hydrogen per day. According to Trevor Milton, you have to make sure this hydrogen will be used in full for the business to be viable. That is why the hydrogen stations will be open to every FCEV around. Nikola aims to sell the gas at $2 to $3 per kg. . . .

The refueling stations for the company will be open to anyone in need of clean hydrogen.

Milton even considers offering the FCEV version of the Badger with some free hydrogen for the first buyers. By the way, he also made it clear that the Badger will not be built in Coolidge: it will be manufactured by a partner OEM – we bet on FCA (or Stellantis, if you prefer).

Apart from making sure its hydrogen stations are profitable and not a money drain, Nikola will help create a hydrogen network to serve other manufacturers, such as Toyota and Hyundai, which sell respectively the Mirai and the Nexo. These cars could be offered in many more states if such a network exists. Trevor Milton said:

“I know hydrogen fuel cells are less efficient, I get it, but that does not mean it is more expensive to drive.”

If the bolded sections are accurate quotes, it seems Mr. Milton has been taking lessons from Elon in over-promising and under-deiivering. Give me a break 🙄
Last edited by GRA on Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:47 pm

There's no way $17 per Kg hydrogen even if fuel cells were 100% efficient is going to be able to compete with $3 a gallon diesel or sub $2 a gallon equivalent compressed natural gas.
Hydrogen can't even be delivered for $3 per Kg if it were free.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:59 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:55 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
GRA wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:41 pm
Still hearing ... crickets.
The EU plans to build 1 million chargers by 2030. McKinsey says they'll need , I forget, 14 million? by then. See the problem?
Private installs of L1 and L2 expected are ___ million? I doubt zero. Got a better answer?

Norway has about 13,687 public charging points and about 400,000 electric and plug in cars, as of December 2019.

So how does that work, again?
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:27 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:59 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:55 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am


Still hearing ... crickets.
The EU plans to build 1 million chargers by 2030. McKinsey says they'll need , I forget, 14 million? by then. See the problem?
Private installs of L1 and L2 expected are ___ million? I doubt zero. Got a better answer?

Norway has about 13,687 public charging points and about 400,000 electric and plug in cars, as of December 2019.

So how does that work, again?
It works for Norway because 61.2% of their population lives in detached, single family homes. In Germany it's 23%, in France 39%. But if you live in Norway, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, or Serbia, you're in luck (assuming you can afford a car), as they all have rates over 60%. See
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_Europe

Unfortunately, most of Europe's population, especially in the countries with higher rates of car ownership, aren't so favored. To be sure, some of the people living in Semi-detached houses (townhomes) may have garages or off-street parking, but everyone else is probably parking at the curb.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:36 am

GRA wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:27 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:59 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:55 pm


The EU plans to build 1 million chargers by 2030. McKinsey says they'll need , I forget, 14 million? by then. See the problem?
Private installs of L1 and L2 expected are ___ million? I doubt zero. Got a better answer?

Norway has about 13,687 public charging points and about 400,000 electric and plug in cars, as of December 2019.

So how does that work, again?
It works for Norway because 61.2% of their population lives in detached, single family homes. In Germany it's 23%, in France 39%. But if you live in Norway, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, or Serbia, you're in luck (assuming you can afford a car), as they all have rates over 60%. See
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_Europe

Unfortunately, most of Europe's population, especially in the countries with higher rates of car ownership, aren't so favored. To be sure, some of the people living in Semi-detached houses (townhomes) may have garages or off-street parking, but everyone else is probably parking at the curb.
Still doesn't answer the question of private installs.
Single family usually has offstreet parking, but not always.
Duplex and townhouses likewise.
Flats might or might not own a parking garage or a parking lot.
In Boston, MA, there are some curbside parking spaces owned by individuals.

The easy stuff first, of course.

The hardest country might be Malta.

https://www.google.com/maps/@35.9129529 ... 312!8i6656

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malta#Transport

577 cars per km^2? Almost 0.5% of the country is covered by cars! (assuming a car takes up 2 m x 4 m)
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:17 pm

GCC:
BMW to pilot second-generation hydrogen fuel cell drives in small series from 2022

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... 5-bmw.html

The BMW Group will pilot the second generation of hydrogen fuel cell drives in a small series in the BMW i Hydrogen NEXT based on the current BMW X5 from 2022. The fuel cell stack and the overall system are original developments of the BMW Group; individual cells of the fuel cell will come from Toyota. . . .

In the future, the hydrogen fuel cell drive can be an attractive alternative to battery-electric vehicles, in particular for customers who do not have their own access to electric charging infrastructure and who often drive long distances, BMW said.
With a sufficient refueling infrastructure, hydrogen vehicles offer great flexibility, as the full range is available again after a short refueling process of around four minutes regardless of temperature conditions. . . .

The system performance of the BMW i Hydrogen NEXT comes to a total of 275 kW (374 hp) and ensures typical BMW driving dynamics. The fuel cell system alone generates up to 125 kW (170 hp) of electrical energy. . . .

Two 700 bar tanks are housed in the vehicle itself, which together hold six kilograms of hydrogen.

The fifth-generation electric drive, which is used for the first time in the BMW iX3, is also fully integrated in the BMW i Hydrogen NEXT. The power buffer battery, which is positioned above the electric machine, can provide additional dynamics when overtaking or accelerating, for example.

The BMW Group also underscores the belief in the future viability and potential of hydrogen fuel cell technology with its involvement in the BRYSON research project (space-efficient HYdrogen storage facilities with optimized usability). . . .

The aim of the project is the development of flat tanks. The 3.5-year project, which is also funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, will also result in a reduction in the manufacturing costs of hydrogen tanks for fuel cell vehicles. This will improve their competitiveness compared to battery electric vehicles.

The last bolded part is presumably adsorption or nanotubes, requiring only low pressures.

Oh, that reminds me, re your claim that range isn't compelling to car buyers.

IEVS:
After Killing Tesla Model Y SR, Musk Says New Normal Range Is 300 Miles


https://insideevs.com/news/435523/musk- ... -is-300mi/

. . . He also said 300 mi under the EPA cycle, which means WLTP 300-mi ranges do not count. . . .

Musk's exact words were these:

“With regard to passenger vehicles, I think the new normal for range is going to be, just in U.S. EPA terms, approximately 300 miles. So I think people will really come to expect that as some number close to 300 miles as normal.

That's a standard expectation because you do need to take into account, like, is it very hot outside or very cold? Or are you driving up into a mountain with a full load? And it's – people don't want to have – get to the destination with like 10 miles range. They want some reasonable margins. So I think 300 is going to be really – or close to 300 is going to be a new normal, call it 500 kilometers, basically, roughly.”

I would go one step further, and say 300 miles EPA HWY should be the new minimum. As Dan Jones has pointed out, any of the 200 mile EVs has plenty of range for urban usage, where it's hours not miles that matter. On trips it's miles that count.

Not that I think 300 miles highway is enough, as that's only four hours at 70 with an inadequate 20 mile reserve and no allowance for HVAC, winds, climbing or degradation. But it's a step in the right direction, and as I've mentioned about the minimum that a BEV has to have to be of even marginal utility to me. It's enough to get most people to weekend destinations unrecharged, e g. Bay Area to Tahoe summer or winter, albeit with limitations as degradation occurs, that will eventually require an (increasingly lengthy) enroute charging stop.

Of course, the cars also have to be affordable - Aye, there's the rub.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:32 pm

Barron's:
Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Stocks Are Soaring. Yes, It’s a Bubble.

https://www-barrons-com.cdn.ampproject. ... 1595623974

Wall Street discovered hydrogen this year. It has been around for 13 billion years, but the big bucks earmarked for green-energy projects, and a fresh craze for shares of companies aiming to make hydrogen-fueled trucks, have raised the investment profile of all things connected to this ubiquitous gas.

That includes shares of hydrogen fuel-cell makers such as Plug Power , Ballard Power Systems , and Bloom Energy , the first two of which are up fourfold in the past 12 months. Trading at more than 50 times future cash flow, the stocks look priced to disappoint. . . .

Fueling the fuel-cell bubble is a growing consensus that hydrogen will provide green energy in places where solar and wind can’t, such as heavy transport, backup power, and industry. The European Union unveiled a plan this month to invest hundreds of billions of euros in technologies enabling it to get a substantial share of its energy from hydrogen by 2050. The news lifted the shares of big hydrogen-gas sellers Linde (ticker: LIN) and Air Products & Chemicals (APD), and it ignited a stampede into hydrogen pure plays Plug (PLUG), Ballard (BLDP), and Bloom (BE).

In the race to stop global warming, hydrogen power can’t arrive soon enough. But it could take a decade before environmentally friendly hydrogen is competitively priced with natural gas. Moreover, small companies are up against big players, including government-backed rivals in China and deep-pocketed manufacturers, such as Cummins (CMI). . . .

Industrial-gas suppliers Air Products and Air Liquide (AI.France) get about 24% and 10% of their revenue, respectively, from hydrogen. Linde gets about 5%. The hydrogen suppliers’ interim solution is to capture their carbon exhaust and sequester it underground, but the goal is to power most hydrogen production with solar or wind farms. . . .

On July 8, the EU announced a plan calling for Europe to have at least six gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolyzers by 2024, versus one gigawatt (a billion watts) of electrolyzers in the bloc today. By 2050, the EU aims for 500 gigawatts. China, Japan, and Korea also have ambitious hydrogen goals.

If the sort of government incentives and mandates that spawned industries in solar, wind, and electric cars come to hydrogen, it will be good for polar bears and electrolyzer makers, such as the New Power unit of Cummins, and European specialists like NEL (NEL.Norway) and ITM Power (ITM.UK), which have soldiered through years of modest sales and negative cash flow. Their stocks were neglected until hydrogen’s star started rising.

But fuel-cell stocks have shot highest, notwithstanding their history of losses. Bloom Energy shares doubled recently, to $18, on new hydrogen initiatives. Bloom reported revenue of $786 million in 2019 and lost $302 million, or $2.63 a share, after installing 450 megawatts of fuel cells and restating more than two years’ worth of previous results.

Bloom’s fuel cells run on natural gas. On July 15, the company announced a deal to supply a megawatt of hydrogen-powered fuel cells to Korea’s SK Group in 2022. Bloom also plans to introduce an electrolyzer next year, with no customer disclosed yet. “One reason we’re doing these pilots in Korea is because the government there has very aggressive timelines and standards,” says Ed Kim, Bloom’s director of strategic development.

Plug Power acquired a producer of liquid hydrogen and a maker of electrolyzers in June, which will allow it to capture the profit margin on hydrogen used by customers such as Walmart (WMT) and Amazon.com (AMZN) to run more than 40,000 forklifts powered by Plug fuel cells. These cells moved over 25% of the country’s retail food during the Covid-19 pandemic, says chief executive Andy Marsh. Plug posted $230 million in revenue last year, but lost $86 million, or 36 cents a share.

Plug Power’s vertical integration and a recent financing give Marsh confidence that it can grow annual revenue to $1.2 billion in 2024, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of at least $250 million. He expects Plug’s green hydrogen operations to become cost-competitive with bigger companies’ fossil-fueled assets.

Plug Power and other hydrogen upstarts are on the right road, but it is a long one. After Plug’s enterprise value doubled last month to $3.5 billion, Barclays Capital analyst Moses Sutton lowered his rating from the equivalent of a Buy to Hold. The Hydrogenie had granted investors’ wishes, Sutton said in a July 9 note, but Plug now trades at 10 times his estimated 2021 sales and 95 times his projected Ebitda. Expecting no profit before 2024, the analyst pronounced Plug fairly valued at $10 a share. It now changes hands around $9.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:45 pm

The cost of Hydrogen production be it from natural gas or electrolysis doesn't look like it will
ever match the cost per mile of BEV's as the price of batteries drops. This doesn't even take into account
the woeful distribution network at present...
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WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:06 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:32 pm
Wall Street discovered hydrogen this year. It has been around for 13 billion years, but the big bucks earmarked for green-energy projects, and a fresh craze for shares of companies aiming to make hydrogen-fueled trucks, have raised the investment profile of all things connected to this ubiquitous gas.

That includes shares of hydrogen fuel-cell makers such as Plug Power , Ballard Power Systems , and Bloom Energy , the first two of which are up fourfold in the past 12 months. Trading at more than 50 times future cash flow, the stocks look priced to disappoint. . . .

Fueling the fuel-cell bubble is a growing consensus that hydrogen will provide green energy in places where solar and wind can’t, such as heavy transport, backup power, and industry.
Hydrogen's use for rockets, aircraft, perhaps trains and ships, backup power and industry are all likely to be important.

Cars? Unlikely.

Start with rockets. Batteries can't compete. Energy to mass ratio is the most important thing.
Aircraft? IF high output air cooled fuel cells can be developed, and it seems at least possible, then long range transportation at non ridiculous costs is likely possible. Batteries might only compete at fairly short ranges, as batteries don't have as high of energy to mass ratio.
Trains and ships seem reasonable ideas, but is such a tiny fraction of current energy use isn't a big deal.
Backup power seems huge. Solar + batteries (and wind and hydro) could provide electric power for most of the USA for 80% percent of the time at a cost that is similar to today's fossil fueled cost. Yet long term (seasonal) storage is needed. Perhaps hydrogen, perhaps iron redux cells, perhaps something else.
Industry, everything from fertilizer production to chemical production needs chemical energy. Hydrogen is used today.

Cars? Unlikely.
WetEV
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