1-Car Family : Gas usage & cost for ICE, Hybrid, PHEV & BEV

I'll post a detailed blog on this later - with modification that come out of comments.

I'm trying to compare the Gas usage and fuel, ownership costs of various options a car buyer has now. Ofcourse the actual numbers will somewhat change depending on the usage pattern and assumptions. I've used simplistic 10 way division of price, for eg.

I don't have clear examples of compact ICE cars to get a the price of similarly equipped trims. ANy suggestions ?

Interesting thing to note here is that a $15K ICE that just gives 20 mpg has the highest cost of ownership. Higher than a PHEV that costs more than twice to buy.

Great idea.

For sources of prices, invoice costs of models and trims of ICE cars, Edmunds.com is the go-to source. You can price out any model and trim level and the site actually gives you the MSRP and invoice pricing, as well as what others are paying by region. They also have a True Cost To Own calculator that you might be able to use to check your calcs against.

As an adjunct to this, I've been thinking that potential PHEV buyers could benefit from guidance as to whether a PHEV or a HEV such as a Prius might be their best choice, given their particular driving characteristics.

For instance, if their driving scenario includes daily 90 mile round trips, is a more expensive PHEV with 37 mpg CS mode better than a less expensive HEV with 50 mpg overall? At what daily mileage does the break-even occur?

Boomer23 said:

For sources of prices, invoice costs of models and trims of ICE cars, Edmunds.com is the go-to source.

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Yes - but I need to know where to start. I don't see anything in $15K range that is comparable in size to Leaf/Prius. Civic is a good comparison - but in $18 to $20K range with 30 mpg. Also, is there a 20 mpg car compact/mid-size car at all ?

Subaru Impreza has price around $17,500 with mileage 19-22 mpg.

Start at Edmunds with Sedans, sort by price $15-25K, mileage less than 25 mpg.

Would it be possible to incorporate depreciation costs?

I have the feeling that battery depreciation might tipped the balance against the BEV, giving it the worst cost of ownership instead of the best.

greenleaf said:

Would it be possible to incorporate depreciation costs?

I have the feeling that battery depreciation might tipped the balance against the BEV, giving it the worst cost of ownership instead of the best.

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I've depreciated all cars over 10 years.

One option I thought of was to use lease payments. That would account for depreciation as well as interest. But the $350/month for Volt (because of very low depreciation they have used) would tilt the balance. But that would be an objective way to compare depreciation.

The part I stumbled with was in incorporating a variable electricity rate into a model. Cost comparisons are straightforward enough in a flat or tiered rate structure (check your bills for the last 12 months to see what your incremental rate was each month, and guess if your rate would stay the same while charging an EV).

But given the possibility of switching to time-of-use rates, and assessing TOU impact each month on your historical electricity bills, guessing your new incremental rate(s) isn't easy, nor is calculating your updated present electricity cost under a TOU rate structure. If you need to run an air conditioner during the day, your rates become spiky enough that calculating an "average" monthly use will not be enough to accurately model your future costs.

In my case, I installed a 3kW PV system as a hedge to keep my Leaf charging costs reasonable. I wouldn't have done this without the EV purchase. My electricity rate structure, including my household (non-EV-charging) consumption and costs, will change completely as a result.

About this time next year, I expect to have an accurate picture of my charging costs. But I have no easy way to predict it right now to better than about a factor of two accuracy, since I don't have access to my historical month-by-month hourly energy usage and my utility has a steeply tiered TOU rate structure.

The approach I'm going with instead is "don't worry; be happy"

Boomer23 said:

Subaru Impreza has price around $17,500 with mileage 19-22 mpg.

Start at Edmunds with Sedans, sort by price $15-25K, mileage less than 25 mpg.

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The closest size fit is Mazda 3 hatchback. That doesn't even come with Navigation option ! Impreza is a little smaller and with navigation & XM comes to $22K.

There just isn't a ICE car below $20K with nav and other features that come standard with Leaf & Volt.

DeaneG said:

The part I stumbled with was in incorporating a variable electricity rate into a model.

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Yes - people in CA have a lot of figure out. Including taxes & 5K incentives. For us in the NW - it is fairly simple.

ps : Actually I've given benefit of doubt to ICE/hybrids here - in WA there is no sales tax (almost 10%) on BEV.

Just a comment on the rental car cost for BEV long trips. My wife has been using Price Line for renting Midsize/standard cars when we fly to vacation spots for the past several years. Never had to pay more than $20/day rental - add in the fees and taxes (but no rental insurance) and it usually totals $30/day. So I think you can conservatively reduce that cost to $35/day.

charlie1300 said:

So I think you can conservatively reduce that cost to $35/day.

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So, go with a 30 mpg car @ $35/day instead of 50 mpg Prius @ $50 ?

That will reduce cost, but increase gas usage.

evnow said:

greenleaf said:

Would it be possible to incorporate depreciation costs?

I have the feeling that battery depreciation might tipped the balance against the BEV, giving it the worst cost of ownership instead of the best.

Click to expand...

I've depreciated all cars over 10 years.

One option I thought of was to use lease payments. That would account for depreciation as well as interest. But the $350/month for Volt (because of very low depreciation they have used) would tilt the balance. But that would be an objective way to compare depreciation.

Click to expand...

For the ICE cars, there would still be some residue value at the end of 10 years. I recently sold my 10-year old car and it was worth like 25% ~ 30% of the original value.

For the Leaf, the value of the batteries would probably be zero by the end of 10 years. If I use a guesstimate that battery cost is 50% of the car cost, and the rest of the car depreciates to the same 30%, then the residue of the BEV would only be 15% at the end of 10 years.

Of course all these are just my speculation, and I have no idea what is the battery replacement cost a few years down the road.

greenleaf said:

Of course all these are just my speculation, and I have no idea what is the battery replacement cost a few years down the road.

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Moreover is the depreciation from 32k or 25k ?

How much will the ICE be worth if the gas is @ $8 ...

BTW, my low miles 10 year old Maxima is only worth 15%.

greenleaf said:

For the ICE cars, there would still be some residue value at the end of 10 years. I recently sold my 10-year old car and it was worth like 25% ~ 30% of the original value.

For the Leaf, the value of the batteries would probably be zero by the end of 10 years. If I use a guesstimate that battery cost is 50% of the car cost, and the rest of the car depreciates to the same 30%, then the residue of the BEV would only be 15% at the end of 10 years.

Of course all these are just my speculation, and I have no idea what is the battery replacement cost a few years down the road.

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I disagree, my former 6 year old ICE vehicle needed major maintenance equaling about 1/3 of the current value. The initial estimates for the Leaf indicate that the battery pack is only equal to about 1/3 of total vehicle cost and with the crazy advances that have been made in the last 5 years with battery technology we should expect the cost to be less than half what it is today in 5-6 years. Putting 16-20,000 miles on my ICE didn't help, but I think that assuming the battery will need to be replaced should be compared to having to replace the entire ICE engine in order for the estimates to be accurate, thus should be a wash...

I guess my having owned a Camry that did not give me any trouble for the past 10 years and also fetching me a good resale value skewed my opinion. Sorry.

greenleaf said:

I guess my having owned a Camry that did not give me any trouble for the past 10 years and also fetching me a good resale value skewed my opinion. Sorry.

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Your 10-year-old Camry probably passed by my 9-year-old Mercedes, which was hooked to a tow truck on its way to the scrap yard! Fortunately, they're heavy, so there is some residual value when remelted.

evnow said:

charlie1300 said:

So I think you can conservatively reduce that cost to $35/day.

Click to expand...

So, go with a 30 mpg car @ $35/day instead of 50 mpg Prius @ $50 ?

That will reduce cost, but increase gas usage.

Click to expand...

Interesting question, I'm trying to imagine myself in the position of having only a BEV, which won't be my real situation. I think I would opt for choosing the occasional rental based on the lowest possible cost available at the time that I am renting.