iceman
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Electric Cars Will See ...

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:00 am

A well known auto-industry forecasting firm on Wednesday suggested that the heavily promoted battery-powered vehicles about to appear on roads around the world are "overhyped" and headed for a much slower takeoff then some auto makers and industry analysts expect.

In the new study, J.D. Power & Associates said sales of electric cars are likely to remain low for the next several years and won't make up more than a small slice of the global market even 10 years down the road.

The combined sales total of hybrid cars such as the Toyota Motor Corp. Prius and all-electric models like the Nissan Motor Co. Leaf will come to just 5.2 million in 2020, J.D. Power said. That would represent just 7.3% of the global market in 2020, which J.D. Power sees reaching 70.9 million passenger vehicles then. :lol:
Last edited by evnow on Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged topics. Moved to the right forum.

kmp647
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Re: Electric Cars Will See ...

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:15 am

they will sell better than Jd power is suggesting

americans change cars based on the weather and price of fuel :? it goes like this

low price go buy suburban or hummer your pick
oops high prices at the pump , big shocker , go buy camry or lexus sedan or whatever 25mpg!

hey look at that new caddilac truck thing , gotta have that and gas is only $2.79 a gallon now

here is another 45k $....

but a prolonged period of expensive gas prices will come at some point

and those mfrs like Nissan will be in the right place at the right time.
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supercharged
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Hybrids and EVs Will Remain Small Potatoes

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:17 am

The report finds a large migration to hybrids and EVs will require one or more of the following scenarios: A significant increase in petroleum prices, a significant reduction in the cost of the technology and coordinated government policies to promote adoption of such vehicles. “Based on currently available information,” J.D. Power says it doesn’t expect those things to happen.

“We don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade,” John Humphrey, senior VP of automotive operations, said in a statement.

There are some other issues.


J.D. Power found consumers have several concerns about hybrids and battery electrics, including:

They don’t like how the cars look.
They worry about the reliability of the technology.
They’re dissatisfied with the power and performance of the vehicles.
They’re concerned by the range and the time needed to recharge electric vehicles.

:o

GroundLoop
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Re: Electric Cars Will See ...

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:21 am

It's a real possibility.

This forum is full of early-adopters, technology enthusiasts, and peak-oil prognosticators. The larger population will take more convincing. Asking around, of people who already drive economy cars and don't follow the industry closely, there isn't all that much innate enthusiasm for EV. Maybe "curiosity" at most. It really is going to have to prove itself on a practical level, and stand on its own advantages.


To me, it doesn't seem impossible that the 2011 Leaf eventually ends up in surplus on the Nissan car lots, marked down with windshield paint advertising the low low price. How many car shoppers will wander into a lot, with their family in tow licking ice-cream cones, trade in their car and drive off in an EV? Almost none. It has to be pre-meditated.

I've seen something similar with other specialty cars -- extreme enthusiasm in pre-order, vocal proponents, eager MSRP++ buyers, but then quickly satisfied by production and not followed up by a second groundswell of buyers or impulse buys.

supercharged
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Re: Electric Cars Will See ...

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:22 am

Petsec Energy Ltd says there has been a sizeable gas and condensate discovery at its part-owned prospect in the Gulf of Mexico.

Shares in the oil and gas producer jumped sharply in early trade. At 1103 AEDT, Petsec was up five cents, or 30.3 per cent, at 21.5 cents.

Petsec, which owns 10 per cent of the Marathon well on the Louisiana coastline, on the Gulf of Mexico, said the well was drilled to a depth of 5,730 metres.

Advertisement: Story continues below
Marathon was drilled by operator Phoenix Exploration Company, which made a discovery about 3.2km to the northeast that is producing 15 million cubic feet of gas and 100 barrels of condensate each day.

Production from the discovery is expected commence before the end of the year at an estimated development cost to Petsec of $US1.2 million ($A1.22 million).

"We are delighted that our strategy in the USA Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico, to drill for much larger targets in the deeper geologic section, has borne fruit in our second well," said chairman Terry Fern. :ugeek:

kmp647
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Re: Hybrids and EVs Will Remain Small Potatoes

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:24 am

consumers also tell you they will freak at aprrox $5.00 per gal in the US

just wait til that happens ...... imagine $7 or $8 a gallon

$95 to fill up a small car $160 for the suburban owner


that will get people to think different or they will have to stay at home
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mitch672
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Re: Hybrids and EVs Will Remain Small Potatoes

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:30 am

gasoline is ALREADY over $8/gallon in Europe.

as usual, China and Europe will be decades ahead of the U.S., and will be well on their way to being "electrified" before Joe Average american gets wind of the concept.

There will always be oil (well, almost always), but at what price, that is the real question. Americans don't like the looks, or the recharge time? great, just keep digging into your pockets and passing those dollars to people that want to KILL US and END our way of life.
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Re: Hybrids and EVs Will Remain Small Potatoes

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:30 am

supercharged wrote:“Based on currently available information,” J.D. Power says it doesn’t expect those things to happen.
Based on "currently available information" J.D. Power didn't predict a oil price shock in 2008 - nor the related auto sales crash.

Anyone who says they know what will happen in 5 years - without taking peak oil into consideration needs to be ignored.
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supercharged
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Re: Electric Cars Will See ...

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:33 am

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said Thursday it will invest $7.5 billion to develop two of the Gulf of Mexico’s largest unexploited oil fields. Chevron’s decision signals that oil companies are still willing to stake their future on the deep waters of the Gulf’s outer reaches :D

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Re: Hybrids and EVs Will Remain Small Potatoes

Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:36 am

Americans are super Trendy. As soon as your neighbor is not paying for gas, you won't want to either. This effect powered the Pruis. Many Prius owners didn't buy the car for the economy or fuel savings. The car doesn't make sense dollar wise that way, you colud buy a Versa or Fit and be well ahead of the extra expense of a Prius. Look at the demographics of Prius owners, wasn't a money/economy issue. The "Social" effect will be what powers the migration to electric. Bean counters can't quantify that.
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