GRA
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:10 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:48 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:31 pm
2 bdrm {for} $2,450/month, so not San Francisco prices but hardly low-income renters either. The vehicles I saw were also newish and more upscale.

All in all, this is exactly the demographic that would be interested in and could afford current BEVs up to say the M3/Y price range, so if they can't charge at home 10 years after mass production BEVs were available, it will be decades before low income apartment renters can. I also checked a couple of more modest apartment buildings to see if any improvements re charging have occurred in the two years or so since I last looked. Nope, still nothing.
Sounds like a solidly middle-class sort of place. That would be a better place to watch than the more modest buildings. If you want to find charging today try something like this:

https://www.baxteronbroadway.com/amenities/

Or just go to Craig's list:

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa ... =all+dates

Oh my, a few choices. o.O

112 as of this morning. Mostly upscale from your example, however.

I notice that a lot of buildings in Oakland are offering 1, 2 or even 3 months free rent to sign a year lease. Pandemic pricing, eh? Nice for renters, ouch for owners.
Yes, rental prices are down here, because all the people who realized they can WFH are moving out to where they can get more for their money and often looking to buy houses, commuting no longer being an issue. OTOH, home prices have been going up locally even more than their already stratospheric levels.

FWIW, in the parking there I counted 3 or 4 (forget) BMWs, one an X5 and the rest what appeared to be 4 or 5 class coupes and sedans, plus a new Audi Q5, a newish mid-level Mercedes sedan and an Infiniti sedan or coupe among the vehicles parked there. Plus lots of Hondas, a few Toyotas and various other imports and, as is typical of the Bay Area, very few domestic brands, bar a new Mustang, an Escape, a Fusion and a couple of larger CUVs. A majority of the spaces had two cars in them. Oh, and 1 BEV, a Model X, who presumably charges at work or uses public QCs, which are finally beginning to appear at grocery stores around here, although not the closest ones yet. So I'd say there were some very solid middle class types living there.

WetEV wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:48 am
Would a L1 outlet cost 2 or 3 months rent? How many month's rent would a L2 station cost? Oh, not the worst case numbers, the best case numbers. Because mostly the best case installs will happen first.

The question, as always, is who has the incentive to pay for installing it? We know there will gradually be charging added at the higher end, but as long as your choice as to where to live is seriously constrained by charging, the pace of adding that will remain low. Which is why I'm a fan of PHEVs, which also make L1 vs. L2 a lot more acceptable. Of course, if you just provide L1 receptacles there's a security issue for portable EVSEs (barring gates, which few lower-end apartments have).

WetEV wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:48 am
I doubt if any "10 year" plan will accurately cover the details of how charging will spread. As the price of new EVs drops, and the number of nice used EVs at lower prices increases, the fraction of renters with an EV will increase, and the median rent for an apartment with charging will decrease. Gradually, then suddenly. We are still in the gradual phase.

Not a large commitment to EV changing might take vacancy from horrid 80% to nice 95%. When the ROI looks nice, it will happen.

Just like plugs for block heaters.

It's a chicken and egg situation, and people aren't going to opt for BEVs until they know charging will be easy, convenient and less expensive than gas. Along that line, the closest public L2s to that apartment block are 7 blocks away are Blinks that charge $0.49 kWh members/$0.59 kWh guests, are in a oublic parking garage inhabited by the homeless at night, and within the past couple of months someone decided to smash all their screens. Most appear to still work, but for all the reasons above I've never seen more than 4 of the ten being used (during the day, almost none at night) despite their excellent location across from City Hall and a grocery store, and a block or two from the main restaurant/bar/theater district.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:28 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:10 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:48 am
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa ... =all+dates

Oh my, a few choices. o.O
It's a chicken and egg situation, and people aren't going to opt for BEVs until they know charging will be easy, convenient and less expensive than gas. Along that line, the closest public L2s to that apartment block are 7 blocks away are Blinks that charge $0.49 kWh members/$0.59 kWh guests, are in a oublic parking garage inhabited by the homeless at night, and within the past couple of months someone decided to smash all their screens. Most appear to still work, but for all the reasons above I've never seen more than 4 of the ten being used (during the day, almost none at night) despite their excellent location across from City Hall and a grocery store, and a block or two from the main restaurant/bar/theater district.
Notice how GRA totally missed the Craig's list search.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:44 pm

I didn't miss it, I just don't see how an occasional charging station at apartments at the upper end of the market has anything to do with what will be needed for mass adoption. The situation is only slightly better than when I joined this forum over 9 years ago, and I live in the state with the highest percentage of PEV sales in the country, in the metro area with the highest % in the state. The state minimum wage is going up to $14 hr. ($13 for 25 or fewer employees) on January 1st. Even with two such incomes, they aren't going to be living in any of these places. $14/hr.is about $28k/year, so $2,450 month ($29,400/year) apartments like the one I described, or similar or higher prices for the ones you did, are irrelevant to mass adoption.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:22 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:44 pm
I didn't miss it, I just don't see how an occasional charging station at apartments at the upper end of the market has anything to do with what will be needed for mass adoption. The situation is only slightly better than when I joined this forum over 9 years ago, and I live in the state with the highest percentage of PEV sales in the country, in the metro area with the highest % in the state. The state minimum wage is going up to $14 hr. ($13 for 24 or fewer employees) on January 1st. Even with two such incomes, they aren't going to be living in any of these places. $14/hr.is about $28k/year, so $2,450 month ($29,400/year) apartments like the one I described, or similar or higher prices for the ones you did, are irrelevant to mass adoption.
Mass adoption will happen two ways. "Gradually, then suddenly." At the high end first, as who buys a $100k+ Model S?

Roughly 1 in 10 listings had "EVcharging". Still gradually.

Like EV adoption. 0.5%. 1% 2% 4% 8% (see it's gradual) 16% 32% 64% (Sudden!)
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:34 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:22 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:44 pm
I didn't miss it, I just don't see how an occasional charging station at apartments at the upper end of the market has anything to do with what will be needed for mass adoption. The situation is only slightly better than when I joined this forum over 9 years ago, and I live in the state with the highest percentage of PEV sales in the country, in the metro area with the highest % in the state. The state minimum wage is going up to $14 hr. ($13 for 24 or fewer employees) on January 1st. Even with two such incomes, they aren't going to be living in any of these places. $14/hr.is about $28k/year, so $2,450 month ($29,400/year) apartments like the one I described, or similar or higher prices for the ones you did, are irrelevant to mass adoption.
Mass adoption will happen two ways. "Gradually, then suddenly." At the high end first, as who buys a $100k+ Model S?

Roughly 1 in 10 listings had "EVcharging". Still gradually.

Like EV adoption. 0.5%. 1% 2% 4% 8% (see it's gradual) 16% 32% 64% (Sudden!)

Sure, if and when we hit a growth rate with a sustained power of 2 things will start to happen fast. But we're nowhere near that, in fact we saw a decrease in YoY PEV sales in the U.S. in 2019; in 2020 they're even further down for obvious reasons, albeit up %wise (as I and others predicted). Any transportation mode can't grow fast without the infrastructure to support it, and that growth rate will remain constrained when both the tech and infrastructure remain dependent on subsidies.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:34 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:22 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:44 pm
I didn't miss it, I just don't see how an occasional charging station at apartments at the upper end of the market has anything to do with what will be needed for mass adoption. The situation is only slightly better than when I joined this forum over 9 years ago, and I live in the state with the highest percentage of PEV sales in the country, in the metro area with the highest % in the state. The state minimum wage is going up to $14 hr. ($13 for 24 or fewer employees) on January 1st. Even with two such incomes, they aren't going to be living in any of these places. $14/hr.is about $28k/year, so $2,450 month ($29,400/year) apartments like the one I described, or similar or higher prices for the ones you did, are irrelevant to mass adoption.
Mass adoption will happen two ways. "Gradually, then suddenly." At the high end first, as who buys a $100k+ Model S?

Roughly 1 in 10 listings had "EVcharging". Still gradually.

Like EV adoption. 0.5%. 1% 2% 4% 8% (see it's gradual) 16% 32% 64% (Sudden!)

Sure, if and when we hit a growth rate with a sustained power of 2 things will start to happen fast. But we're nowhere near that, in fact we saw a decrease in YoY PEV sales in the U.S. in 2019; in 2020 they're even further down for obvious reasons, albeit up %wise (as I and others predicted). Any transportation mode can't grow fast without the infrastructure to support it, and that growth rate will remain constrained when both the tech and infrastructure remain dependent on subsidies.
EVs worldwide have been doubling every 2 to 3 years for quite a while. The USA has a lower EV market share than the world does.

EV adoption isn't dependent on subsidies. Does $7,500 matter when buying a Porsche for $200k? And Telsa sells a lot of M3's with no subsidy. What EV subsidies do is speed up the curve, especially at the first.

Gas cars get a subsidy as well. Free garbage dumping into your lungs.

Back to apartments. In new construction, adding one L1 per unit is cheap, far less than a month's rent, raising rents by less than 1%. Much like car block heaters in cold areas. Retrofitting is more expensive, perhaps 2 months rent. L2 might be 4 months rent. No subsidy needed when the demand arrives. Landlords want a lower vacancy rate, and offering things renters want helps that. The demand will arrive, as BEVs are getting both lower priced and more capable. And yes, some apartments will be far more expensive to retrofit. As in only rent this if you have charging at work...
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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SageBrush
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:15 am

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
Back to apartments. In new construction, adding one L1 per unit is cheap, far less than a month's rent, raising rents by less than 1%. Much like car block heaters in cold areas. Retrofitting is more expensive, perhaps 2 months rent. L2 might be 4 months rent. No subsidy needed when the demand arrives. Landlords want a lower vacancy rate, and offering things renters want helps that. The demand will arrive, as BEVs are getting both lower priced and more capable. And yes, some apartments will be far more expensive to retrofit. As in only rent this if you have charging at work...
Yep, although it does seem fair to point out that in general people swap cars a lot more readily than they swap apartments. There is a chicken and egg thing going on here that delays progress. OTOH, as we both have mentioned, Apt dwellers as a group are waiting for less expensive, used EVs.

GRA is putting the cart before the donkey. Which is amusing, given his sisyphusean fight to hang the 10x costs of fool cell cars on this population.
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GRA
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:59 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:34 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:22 pm


Mass adoption will happen two ways. "Gradually, then suddenly." At the high end first, as who buys a $100k+ Model S?

Roughly 1 in 10 listings had "EVcharging". Still gradually.

Like EV adoption. 0.5%. 1% 2% 4% 8% (see it's gradual) 16% 32% 64% (Sudden!)

Sure, if and when we hit a growth rate with a sustained power of 2 things will start to happen fast. But we're nowhere near that, in fact we saw a decrease in YoY PEV sales in the U.S. in 2019; in 2020 they're even further down for obvious reasons, albeit up %wise (as I and others predicted). Any transportation mode can't grow fast without the infrastructure to support it, and that growth rate will remain constrained when both the tech and infrastructure remain dependent on subsidies.

EVs worldwide have been doubling every 2 to 3 years for quite a while. The USA has a lower EV market share than the world does.

Care to provide a list of countries with higher PEV adoption rates than the U.S., which don't have subsidies/perks/mandates?

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
EV adoption isn't dependent on subsidies. Does $7,500 matter when buying a Porsche for $200k? And Telsa sells a lot of M3's with no subsidy. What EV subsidies do is speed up the curve, especially at the first.

Oh, come on, we're talking about mass market adoption, not what motivates people who can spend more on a car than most people can on housing. I have no doubt that most of the people buying Model S/X over the past 8 years find the subsidies of small importance too. But for the survey respondents who say that the price of BEVs needs to be about $36k, along with the range, charging speed, infrastructure and vehicle type variety required before they'll be mainstream, subsidies are most definitely needed. No current BEV can meet all their requirements at any price; innumerable ICEs can.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
Gas cars get a subsidy as well. Free garbage dumping into your lungs.
Uh huh, and as long as they can't see it and it doesn't make them cough or wheeze in the short term, they've got other priorities.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
Back to apartments. In new construction, adding one L1 per unit is cheap, far less than a month's rent, raising rents by less than 1%. Much like car block heaters in cold areas.
Sure, but as I've pointed out, the existing stock is going to be with us for a very long time.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
Retrofitting is more expensive, perhaps 2 months rent. L2 might be 4 months rent. No subsidy needed when the demand arrives. Landlords want a lower vacancy rate, and offering things renters want helps that. The demand will arrive, as BEVs are getting both lower priced and more capable. And yes, some apartments will be far more expensive to retrofit. As in only rent this if you have charging at work...

You are far too sanguine about the amount of work required, or the cost. After all, even L1 charging will be the single greatest long-duration load for any apartment, so you're probably talking about a capacity increase of at least 1/2, maybe double. You're almost certainly going to need a new service entrance if not separate meters, permits etc. The one likely cost-saving area is that no one much cares about the esthetics of carports and parking garages, so you can run the wiring in external conduit fixed to the walls/ceilings instead of having them internal. OTOH, the wire runs may be quite long, building codes may require burying wire runs for open parking spaces, and that still leaves the people who have to park curbside SoL.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:12 pm

Unless lithium suddenly becomes rare hydrogen doesn't stand a chance at becoming the predominant means of powering personal vehicles.
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GRA
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:25 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:15 am
WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm
Back to apartments. In new construction, adding one L1 per unit is cheap, far less than a month's rent, raising rents by less than 1%. Much like car block heaters in cold areas. Retrofitting is more expensive, perhaps 2 months rent. L2 might be 4 months rent. No subsidy needed when the demand arrives. Landlords want a lower vacancy rate, and offering things renters want helps that. The demand will arrive, as BEVs are getting both lower priced and more capable. And yes, some apartments will be far more expensive to retrofit. As in only rent this if you have charging at work...
Yep, although it does seem fair to point out that in general people swap cars a lot more readily than they swap apartments. There is a chicken and egg thing going on here that delays progress. OTOH, as we both have mentioned, Apt dwellers as a group are waiting for less expensive, used EVs.

GRA is putting the cart before the donkey. Which is amusing, given his sisyphusean fight to hang the 10x costs of fool cell cars on this population.
What 10x cost? If I thought that was going to be the case, I wouldn't bother. The new Mirai costs about the same as a model 3LR, goes further in any conditions, won't lose range, and owning doesn't control where you live or work to the same degree that BEVs currently do, given the infrastructure. The cost of the latter has already dropped to the same range per car served as QCs, with more reductions to come thanks to even greater economies of scale. What remains is getting the cost of green H2 down to gasoline-conpetitive, and while that's still several years away it's getting a lot closer. Did you read the IRENA report on electrolyzers I provided a link to in the H2 & FCEV topic? To repeat what I've said many times before, it's the cost of H2 that will ultimately determine the success or failure of FCEVs, not the costs of the cars or the fueling infrastructure. Whether or not FCEVs succeed, we will see H2/FCs used for industry, long distance commercial transport, longer-term energy storage and grid supply etc.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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