California retail H2 fuel stations

[GRA]

<snip> Appendix D contains all sorts of actual usage data, including average fills, utilization rates, fills by time of day/week, and by 350/700 bar. One oddity is that unlike gas/diesel, which see the majority of fills during morning and evening commutes, the majority of 700 bar H2 fills have been happening around midday. They didn't suggest a reason, and I can't think of one. Haven't quite finished reading all the appendices yet.

My conclusion remain: I don't see 100 station supporting more than 30,000 vehicles, and even that is a real stretch since it assumes equal loading between stations and that each station can deliver their daily output during the peak periods. Each assumption is highly unlikely to be true.

They're not expecting equal utilization. One of the usage charts (Figure D-5, "Station Counts by Average Quarterly Utilization") shows utilization rates as a % of time, and they vary widely. While the majority of stations are in the 0-5 and 5-10% range at the moment, utilization rates have been climbing (from 1.8% avg. & the end of Q4 2015, to 8.0% as of the end of Q3 '16, with 1 station seeing an average utilization rate of 45%), and one is apparently experiencing occasional periods of 75-80% (presumably the same one that's averaging 45%). The main thing such rates can help show is where the density of stations and/or the capacity/throughput of each station needs to be beefed up in future years.

[RegGuheert]

They're not expecting equal utilization.

Well, if they don't get EXACTLY balanced utilization (i.e. exactly the right number of H2 FCVs living near and refueling at each station), then they will not even get close to 30,000 because the overloaded stations will run out of H2 daily. I wouldn't be surprised to see the wheels come off at about 10,000 vehicles or even earlier.

[GRA]

They're not expecting equal utilization.

Well, if they don't get EXACTLY balanced utilization (i.e. exactly the right number of H2 FCVs living near and refueling at each station), then they will not even get close to 30,000 because the overloaded stations will run out of H2 daily. I wouldn't be surprised to see the wheels come off at about 10,000 vehicles or even earlier.

Which is why they've been using computer modeling which takes account of demographic factors, along with actual usage patterns, to forecast where stations need to be added. See Chapter 2 (pages 9-18), "Coverage and Capacity of the Hydrogen Refueling Station Network", and Chapter 5 (pgs. 29-31), "Amount of Growth and the Timing of Growth of the Refueling Network". They're currently forecasting a shortfall around 2020 given current funding and build rates as well as FCEV sales projections. Perfection is unlikely to be achieved, but they seem to have a good handle what will be required.

[GRA]

Via GCC:

California Energy Commission selects 16 hydrogen station projects for up to $33.4M in funding

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/02 ... 1-cec.html

The California Energy Commission (CEC) has selected 15 new main hydrogen retail station projects for up to $31.7 million in combined funding, as well as one connector station project for up to $1.5 million in fund. Among the program requirements are that each station dispense a minimum of at least 33% renewable hydrogen (per kilogram).

Eight of the main stations projects identified in the Notice of Proposed Awards (NOPA) are to be completed by First Element Fuel; the remaining seven are to be completed by a partnership of Shell and Toyota Motor. . . .

This is the next two-year round of grants, GFO 15-605 (the current round which is completing the first 50 is 13-607). Stations awarded grants are:

I-5 additional connector
Santa Nella (Air Liquide).

Norcal
[SF]
3 in San Francisco (Shell stations).

[East Bay]
Berkeley (Shell station).
Oakland (1st Element).
Walnut Creek (Shell).

[South Bay]
Sunnyvale (1st Elm.)
Campbell (1st Elm.)

[Sacramento area]
Sacramento (Shell).
Citrus Heights (1st Elm.).

SoCal
[Greater LA]
Huntington Beach (1st Elm.).
Sherman Oaks (1st Elm.).
Irvine (1st Elm.).

[San Diego]
San Diego (1st Elm.).

Grant amounts vary from about $1.71 million up to $2.34 million. with matching amounts (from the company) varying from about 1/3rd to something over 1/2.

Full list showing all stations and amounts here: http://www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/GFO-15-605_NOPA.pdf

[GRA]

Checking the location of the Santa Nella site, it's on the south side of I-5, while the Tesla SC is on the north side. Access is easiest for those heading south, harder for those heading north, and the opposite is true for the SC, but neither is difficult. IMO a better site at least for the H2 station and maybe the SC, would have been 3 miles south nearer the junction of I-5 and S.R. 152, as I expect the majority of the traffic at this site to be heading to/from the South Bay Area via 152, but there's fewer places to eat there. That's more of an issue for an SC.

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Air Products’ California fueling stations offering hydrogen below $10 per kg

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/03 ... -airp.html

. . . Advancements in fueling technology and a greater volume of vehicles now using the stations were important factors in allowing the pricing move to less than $10 per hydrogen kilogram ($9.99/kg).

Currently there are five Air Products California hydrogen fueling stations able to provide hydrogen at this new pricing. The five stations are all supplied with hydrogen from Air Products’ world-class hydrogen production and pipeline-connected facilities in Wilmington and Carson, California. The stations with the new pricing are located in West Los Angeles, Woodland Hills, Fairfax, Santa Monica, and the fifth is soon-to-be operational in Lawndale. . . .

Still quite a ways to go to be competitive with gasoline, but moving in the right direction. OTOH, this is the cheapest type of H2, using central point SMR (but like all transportation H2 in the state, must meet or exceed the 33% RFS) and in some cases pipeline delivery. I'll have to check my nearest H2 station (First Element/True Zero) to see if they've dropped any, as they've been charging $16.78/kg. pretty much since they opened. However, there's still no competition for them in the East Bay (scheduled to change, as stations in Fremont and San Ramon are supposed to complete in Q2, but we'll see) so little incentive to do so yet.

At $9.99/kg, the $15k of fuel that Toyota and Honda are providing for lessees over three years would take a Mirai over 100k miles at its 67 mpkg EPA rating. Edmunds got an average of 58.9 mpkg (high 74.3 in relaxed driving, low 41.9 during track testing) over the 6 months of their long-term test, so using that instead would still get you over 88,400 miles in three years. Of course, Toyota only gives you 12k miles a year on the basic $349/month 36-month lease, so it's kind of moot. Bottom line, though, is that you can be certain that you won't have to pay for fuel at any time in the three years at this price, without radically exceeding your mileage limit in the Mirai or even the Clarity (which comes with 20k miles/year on the base $369/month base lease, and is rated at 68 MPGe).

[GRA]

Riverside is open, #26 (#17 in SoCal).

[GRA]

CAFCP has modified their station map. It previously showed all the existing and planned stations, allowing you to select the latter by their planned opening quarters. The new version eliminates that last option (although the individual station links do give scheduled opening quarters), but the map now shows the different status stations by color codes as existing, commissioning, under construction or in planning status, and includes those proposed stations which just received grant funding from the state under GFO 15-607 - none of the latter have moved beyond knowing where the intended sites are.

[GRA]

South Pasadena is open, #27 (#18 in SoCal).

[GRA]

While I'm sure it's still a very rare occurrence here, yesterday afternoon while riding my bike by the local H2 station I was amazed to see not one but two FCEVs there - a Clarity just finishing fueling, and a Mirai in line. As I've only seen any FCEV there on maybe 3 occasions prior to this, it was a bit shocking. I've seen Claritys in the wild on three occasions now, about the same number of times I've seen a Mirai.