GRA
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Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:36 pm

Via GCR: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... study-says
“With gas prices projected to remain under $3 per gallon over the next couple of years, we would look for fuel economy to remain at or near the bottom of the top 10 reasons to purchase.”

The survey of new-car buyers says chief reasons for buying a vehicle include quality and value for the money. Only 4% cited fuel economy in 2016.
IMO, while people will start to seriously think about MPG again when the national average of a gallon of regular hits $3.00, it won't be until it hits $3.25 or more likely $3.50 that we'll start to see a major shift in buying patterns, and AFV sales will take off. If it ever gets to $4.00 average, which it only did very briefly during the price spike in 2008 ($4.11, when oil topped out at $147/bbl), it will become a tidal wave. California will be affected first, owing to our having the highest prices in the nation (outside Hawaii), plus our generally longer commutes.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:57 pm

The conclusion is flawed. There is no sharp line like that - below $3 and it doesn't affect vehicle choice, $3 or more and it does? Silly.

It's not only the price of gas, but how quickly we got there. 12 years ago, $3 gas would have pushed a lot of people into the still-new Prius. Today, $3 feels "cheap".
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
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VitaminJ
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:30 pm

There's definitely a sharp line. In '08 when gas was over $4/gal for the first time ever, the roads became empty. At least in my area. I was a delivery driver during that time and was on the roads every day all day long and it was like a switch, $4/gal and people stopped driving except if they absolutely had to. I had a picture, I don't think I have anymore, but it was of I-25 in the middle of Denver on a mid-week afternoon around 1pm or so and there were no cars coming or going anywhere to be seen at least 1/2 mile in front and behind me, both sides of the interstate all 10 lanes.
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rmay635703
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:09 pm

And that number is a moving target too.

People were getting used to $4 gas and starting to buy trucks again,
the drop in gas prices helped move us into a place where for the first time trucks outsell cars
and the car market is basically collapsing to irrelevance.

Then we will hear all the bitching once gas "surprisingly" goes up to $4 a gallon again.

The government should have "supply side" taxes that hold a certain floor on crude prices, when the crude per barrel rate goes up the tax goes away, this would also help end the road funding bitching since supply side is unavoidable.

Ah well

sendler2112
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:21 pm

Should have started phasing a carbon tax when crude came back down. Still should now. Canada just did. Europe always has.

GRA
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:16 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:The conclusion is flawed. There is no sharp line like that - below $3 and it doesn't affect vehicle choice, $3 or more and it does? Silly.

It's not only the price of gas, but how quickly we got there. 12 years ago, $3 gas would have pushed a lot of people into the still-new Prius. Today, $3 feels "cheap".
To quote the article:
The market-research firm identifies $3 per gallon as the point at which car buyers begin to cite the cost of fuel as a major purchase consideration.

Over the past 10 years, fuel economy, more than any other purchase consideration, has climbed up and down the importance scale. It has soared like a rocketing pheasant to No.1 any time gasoline exceeds $3 a gallon. It has dropped to as low as No.10 when pump prices go under $2.50. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:39 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:The conclusion is flawed. There is no sharp line like that - below $3 and it doesn't affect vehicle choice, $3 or more and it does? Silly.

It's not only the price of gas, but how quickly we got there. 12 years ago, $3 gas would have pushed a lot of people into the still-new Prius. Today, $3 feels "cheap".
Of course, that's totally logical! The analogy of the frog being heated slowly is similar to slowly rising gas prices.
Obviously, that applies below some threshold price, but it's now greater than $4 - $5 with no sharp breakpoint
as implied.
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Zythryn
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:11 am

While fuel prices are one reason to buy an AFV vehicle, it isn't the only reason.
The electric cars also sell on things like quality of drive, performance, and (for about 40% of the car market) convenience.

These are the reasons the plugin market continues to grow rapidly.
Higher gas prices will only increase that rate even further.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
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RegGuheert
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:26 am

It's also important to note that higher electricity prices tend to depress the plug-in market. While gasoline prices go up AND down, electricity prices tend to only go up. The exception to this rule is that many people can drop their per-kWh electricity price by installing photovoltaics on their roof (though the electricity is typically pre-paid).
RegGuheert
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: Gas has to cost $3 a gallon before it affects vehicle choice, study says

Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:53 am

RegGuheert wrote:It's also important to note that higher electricity prices tend to depress the plug-in market. While gasoline prices go up AND down, electricity prices tend to only go up. The exception to this rule is that many people can drop their per-kWh electricity price by installing photovoltaics on their roof (though the electricity is typically pre-paid).
My grid-sourced electricity has been up and then down for the past 5 years that I have been tracking (since I installed my solar panels).

Here are my average costs/kWh (includes an optional $0.015/kWh for "greenup", which most consumers do not choose - parenthesis are the "standard" rates):
2012 = $0.1211 ($0.1061)
2013 = $0.1267 ($0.1117)
2014 = $0.1375 ($0.1225)
2015 = $0.1219 ($0.1069)
2016 = $0.1130 ($0.0980)

Last year was actually the cheapest since I started watching them. The standard rate was below 10 cents / kWh.

All that said, I don't think the average consumer even knows what their electricity prices are. Before I had solar, I vaguely knew, but not to this precision. So how can an unknown factors affect PEV sales?
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

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