Some related analysis via GCR:
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... om-hybrids
Battery electrics steal sales from hybrids
According to an analysis by the California New Car Dealers Association, all of those new plug-in cars are replacing traditional hybrids, not conventional cars. So the fuel and emissions savings aren’t what they could be.
Data from the CNCDA’s California Auto Outlook [PDF] in the second quarter of 2018 shows a dramatic dip in the market share of hybrid cars, and a corresponding big rise in both plug-in hybrids and battery electric cars.
According to CNCDA figures, battery electric-car registrations grew from 29,536 in 2014 to 53,500 in 2017, with growth from 1.6 percent of the market then to 3.3 percent now. Plug-in hybrids saw similar growth. Those extra 24,000-plus sales came from somewhere, though.
Hybrid registrations for 2017 were 93,251, down from 116,217 in 2014. That’s a drop of almost 23,000 hybrid sales, from 6.3 percent of the market in 2014 to just four percent now. Year-to-date figures for 2018 suggest the decline is continuing.
Together, all green cars make up 10.2 percent of the California auto market this year.
That begs the obvious question: Are burgeoning electric car sales cannibalizing once-robust purchase of hybrids? Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport at Bloomberg New Energy Finance thinks so. “PHEVs are eating regular hybrids,” he told Green Tech Media. . . .
“There is absolutely a shift happening from hybrids to battery electrics and plug-in hybrids,” said Sam Abuelsamid, senior analyst at Navigant Research. “Our forecast is for hybrids to be relatively flat over the next decade with electric growth mainly coming from plug-in hybrids. The 48-volt mild hybrids will also take a significant chunk of the market over the next decade, although it now looks like it won’t be quite as substantial as we thought a year ago. . . .”
The question is are we yet shifting beyond the early adopters - the Model 3 gives some hope of that, albeit it's too expensive. Here's a quote I first posted back in 2014 or so:
But I'll let James Greenberger, director of the National Alliance for Advanced Technology Batteries, a non-profit industry trade group (talking to Seth Fletcher in his book "Bottled Lightning" back in 2010 or 2011) state the issue better than I can:
"If you take a look at high-tech marketing and the experience of the high-tech industry [he's citing Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm" here, one of the books on my essential list for EVs], you know that the early adopter market for these transformative technologies is relatively easy to come by. We will sell EVs and PHEVs to folks who bought the Prius, no question. But that is not an economically sustainable market, and it's not a politically sustainable market, because if we find ourselves in five years with a PHEV and EV market that is entirely dependent on wealthy consumers and government subsidies, the government subsidies will go away. And so we have a fairly short time period -- in my view, probably within five years -- to figure out how we sell EVs to the general U.S. consumer, who is completely non-ideological and not particularly interested in new technology. They just want a product that does something they do already and does it a little bit better."
It's now 7 or 8 years after he said that, and PEV sales growth is still largely cannibalizing HEVs and dependent on wealthy consumers and subsidies (which are being decreased or removed), rather than conquering the mass market. There's reason for concern and also reason to hope.