GCC: Next 10 report says widespread EV adoption in California could deliver significant economic benefits to the state b

Next 10 report says widespread EV adoption in California could deliver significant economic benefits to the state by 2030 and 2050

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. . . The report, Clean Transportation: An Economic Assessment of More Inclusive Vehicle Electrification in California, was prepared by Berkeley Economic Advising and Research (BEAR) and assesses the economic implications of the projected increase in electric vehicle use with a long-term economic forecasting model, focusing on the policy milestone years of 2030 and 2050.

BEAR considered four scenarios to illustrate the consequences of different pathways for large-scale electrification of the light vehicle fleet, with two key factors informing the variations between each scenario: (1) electric vehicle adoption patterns and (2) Incremental Vehicle Costs (IVC).

The adoption patterns vary among the scenarios, with the Baseline assuming current adoption patterns—meaning greater adoption at higher-income levels—while the other scenarios assume the adoption patterns converge by 2030 or 2050. . . .

Key findings include:

• By 2030,vehicle electrification will increase California’s GSP by between $82 billion to $142 billion, depending on the scenario. California’s 2018 GSP was almost $3 trillion ($2,997,732.8 million, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)). Thus, the EV influx would provide approximately a 2.7% to 4.7% boost over the 2018 GSP.
  
  Real income is projected to increase substantially, ranging from between $311 billion to $357 billion in 2030, depending on the scenario.
  
  This overall economic expansion generates billions in additional revenue per year from existing tax instruments.
  
  Study authors calculated an estimated increase of 394,000 new jobs in 2030 under the relatively more conservative scenario (LTES)—and more than half a million new jobs under the scenarios that account for declining costs and increasing availability of PEVs. These do not include the employment gains that exceed direct job creation.
  
  Looking out to 2050, the economic benefits increase by seven to eight times, depending on the scenario, over those in 2030 as the growth dividends from more efficient mobility are amplified. Even in the conservative LTES scenario, vehicle electrification increases California’s GSP by about 5% by 2050.
  
  In the scenarios (Innovation and Equity) that reflect more aggressive vehicle cost reductions, the gains are almost twice as large. . . .

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Clean Transportation: An Economic Assessment of More Inclusive Vehicle Electrification in California

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