GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 9:14 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:42 pm
But if you are going to allow them, then access should be at reduced cost rather than free, because while they aren't emitting, they are adding to congestion in the HOV lane and on surface streets which makes the car poolers and bus riders trios that much slower.
Remember, though, that these are the people whose time means everything, and to whom money means little or nothing. I don't see a modest fee keeping them out of the HOV lanes when they are alone.

Which is why they still should have to pay something rather than having it be free. Although Teslas still predominate, on the rare occasions I drive the freeway during commute hours I am seeing an increasing number of less expensive PEVs in those lanes. As I've noted elsewhere, the Prius Prime currently ranks #2 in my traffic counts on surface streets after the Model 3, typically about 1/3rd as many, and I see similar ratios on the freeway. Bolt #s are up too.

If we're going to allow SO PHEVs to use those lanes, we need to ensure that those miles are electric, hence my call for modified toll transponders.
But I'd rather just eliminate HOT lanes entirely; I loathe them as privileged use of public goods by the wealthy.

I'd also prohibit SO ZEV use of HOV lanes, giving those cars other perks (congestion/ULEV zones, maybe reduced parking fees etc.). One possible method, for areas with 4 or more lanes abreast, would be a ZEV lane in addition to the HOV lane, usable by SO cars running ZE (transponders as above). It may be too early for that given the relatively small % of the commute fleet that can run ZEV, but there are places in California where it might be worth trying as an experiment, to see what effect it had on both sales and traffic flow. Naturally, there will be fierce resistance to this.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 2:20 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 12:49 pm
GRA has a point. There must be another way to encourage the affluent to buy EVs, without essentially giving them money that would otherwise have gotten someone with less income into one. I think that things like free HOV access and other convenience-related perks might have worked, and might still work.
But that is the point: the benefit to society that accrues from an ICE replacement is not dependent on WHO drives the EV. Rich driver or poor driver, it is one less ICE on the road.

You class warfare folks are missing the forest for the trees. You are so intent on punishing the rich you miss the social value which underlies the subsidy in the first place. 'Rich' people bought the Tesla Model S with a tax credit, which lead to the Model 3, which will lead to the Model 2. The same thing is happening to European manufacturers.

I think it is great.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 4:29 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 2:20 pm

But that is the point: the benefit to society that accrues from an ICE replacement is not dependent on WHO drives the EV. Rich driver or poor driver, it is one less ICE on the road.
The subsidy required to sell the EV is less at the higher end of the market.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 4:43 pm

This "class warfare" guy understands that with limited funds it makes more tactical sense to subsidize financially those purchases that are contingent on the buyer getting financial assistance, while finding other ways - ways that don't deplete the limited funding - to incentivize affluent buyers who don't need the extra money. Sagebrush's argument is too simplistic in that it assumes no difference in the total number of EVs put into service whether the affluent receive a financial incentive or not. If you do it right, with non-monetary incentives for the rich, and financial incentives for the working classes, then you end up with more EVs on the road than if you just throw a set amount of money in the air, metaphorically, and let it land where it will.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 6:38 pm

^^^ +1. Every $7,500 going to someone who doesn't need it to buy a PEV could instead be 2 x $3,750, 3 x $2,500 or 5 x $1,500 to someone who does, and who doesn't have the income to qualify for the full fed. credit in any case. If you are going to have subsidies they should decrease, not increase, as the buyer's income rises.

I assume the point of subsidies is to get as many people into PEVs as possible, to achieve the largest, fastest reduction in emissions at the lowest cost. The most cost-effective way to accomplish that isn't by subsidising a few people at the top end to buy cars beyond the ability of the mass-market buyer to afford. We needed more LEAFs and Volts and fewer Model S/X.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 7:46 pm

GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 6:38 pm
^^^ +1. Every $7,500 going to someone who doesn't need it to buy a PEV could instead be 2 x $3,750, 3 x $2,500 or 5 x $1,500 to someone who does, and who doesn't have the income to qualify for the full fed. credit in any case. If you are going to have subsidies they should decrease, not increase, as the buyer's income rises.

I assume the point of subsidies is to get as many people into PEVs as possible, to achieve the largest, fastest reduction in emissions at the lowest cost. The most cost-effective way to accomplish that isn't by subsidising a few people at the top end to buy cars beyond the ability of the mass-market buyer to afford. We needed more LEAFs and Volts and fewer Model S/X.
The LEAF and the Volt both received $7,500 subsidies and few people in the US bought them, financial means notwithstanding. YOU should understand this dynamic better than most, since you continue to drive an ICE despite the subsidy to get you into a car with some inconvenience. Since $7,500 was not enough, how does $3,500 sound to you ?

Your presumptions have failed the reality test. All you have left is resentment towards those with more money and hackneyed rationalizations.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 9:21 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 4:43 pm
This "class warfare" guy understands that with limited funds it makes more tactical sense to subsidize financially those purchases that are contingent on the buyer getting financial assistance, while finding other ways - ways that don't deplete the limited funding - to incentivize affluent buyers who don't need the extra money. Sagebrush's argument is too simplistic in that it assumes no difference in the total number of EVs put into service whether the affluent receive a financial incentive or not. If you do it right, with non-monetary incentives for the rich, and financial incentives for the working classes, then you end up with more EVs on the road than if you just throw a set amount of money in the air, metaphorically, and let it land where it will.
It probably wasn't possible to significantly change the number of EVs on the road, at least counting by the sum of total battery capacity. Oh, perhaps GRA is partly right, and we might have a larger number of PHEVs and/or smaller battery BEVs than the current mix of BEVs and PHEVs. That would have required more incentives and mandates, more money and more rules, not less. PHEVs are already subsidized at a higher percentage than the average BEV.

Looking forwards, much the same. There are not enough privileges to hand out to the "rich", HOV access gets useless when too many cars are already in the HOV lanes. Funding for tax rebates will get harder with rising numbers of EVs. Eventually we will need to switch from subsidies for EVs to taxes on carbon fuels... if that ever becomes politically possible.

What past subsidies have done is to make the current market for EVs clear to see. Even with current battery prices, you are going to see things like the Mercedes-Benz EQS, just announced, selling with or without subsidies, perks or mandates. BEVs are just better cars.

The future EV market is moving down. As battery prices fall, the affordable EV with nicer driving becomes the average car, then economy EV with nicer driving, and cheaper than gasoline. Lower income people mostly buy used cars (80+%). To move them to the front of the line needs incentives large enough make EVs compete with 25 year old Civics and Corollas.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 9:24 pm

What about me? I've been driving a four wheeled EV for 8 years, and two wheeled ones for close to twenty. It's quite true that financial incentives don't work well in the Early Adopter phases, but we're now at the point where people are looking less for excuses to not buy EVs, and more for shortcomings to be remedied so that they can buy them. One of those shortcomings is the price premium, even though now much of it is illusory. The rich don't feel that as much, aside from those people who are rich because they suck up all the available money wherever and whenever they can. That subset of the affluent isn't one that we should be targeting with subsidies, at least not unless the subsidies get an order of magnitude bigger.

Wet slipped in.
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2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 2 lithium E-bicycles.
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 02, 2021 11:06 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 7:46 pm
GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 6:38 pm
^^^ +1. Every $7,500 going to someone who doesn't need it to buy a PEV could instead be 2 x $3,750, 3 x $2,500 or 5 x $1,500 to someone who does, and who doesn't have the income to qualify for the full fed. credit in any case. If you are going to have subsidies they should decrease, not increase, as the buyer's income rises.

I assume the point of subsidies is to get as many people into PEVs as possible, to achieve the largest, fastest reduction in emissions at the lowest cost. The most cost-effective way to accomplish that isn't by subsidising a few people at the top end to buy cars beyond the ability of the mass-market buyer to afford. We needed more LEAFs and Volts and fewer Model S/X.
The LEAF and the Volt both received $7,500 subsidies and few people in the US bought them, financial means notwithstanding. YOU should understand this dynamic better than most, since you continue to drive an ICE despite the subsidy to get you into a car with some inconvenience. Since $7,500 was not enough, how does $3,500 sound to you ?

Your presumptions have failed the reality test. All you have left is resentment towards those with more money and hackneyed rationalizations.

If $7,500 a wasn't enough, that suggests a few things. The cars were still too expensive, the non-financial incentives were lacking, and/or the advertising was inadequate in explaining the benefits. I can understand the LEAF not seeming worth the money, given its short range as well as the almost total lack of public charging infrastructure at the time.

The Volt strikes me as a case where it simply had too much AER, seriously boosting its price given the very high battery cost/kWh at the time, making the price comparison with an HEV or ICE non-competitive. Along with a different body type (CUV), giving it say 20 vice 35 miles AER would have helped close the price gap. That along with $7,500, or even $3,750 would have made the car more competitive.

Of course, another approach would have been to impose an income limit, and use the money saved to boost the subsidy even higher, to $10,000 or $11,250. But those levels are just an indication of why I dislike customer subsidies in the first place, and using the money for something else such as building a charging network would IMO have been more valuable. That's one thing that Tesla got right

If the cars were simply too expensive to compete and didn't provide any perceived advantage to more than a tiny niche of buyers at the time, which was arguably the case, then it was too early to try and we should have done something else, like more incentives for HEVs. Of course, higher fuel prices would have had the biggest effect.

As for my own understanding failing to get me into a PEV, it's not just some inconvenience, it's a whole lot of it for no benefit, given my highly atypical use case. Plus the lack until recently of a car that net most of my major requirements. I've said before that if an AWD PHEV CUV with a smallish battery pack had been available in 2066 or 17, I would have gone for it despite my wanting to go full ZEV. But neither GM or anyone else built that car. The RAV4 Prime comes closest, but it's too big and I don't vwabt to pay for size I don't need. Now, while I've considered getting something like a Niro PHEV despite its lack of AWD and being a bit short of cargo space, I figure I'm too close to being able to buy a ZEV that will meet my needs. It makes more financial sense to wait for a few more years, when I expect both the cars and, just as important to me, the infrastructure will finally be available.

As to resentment towards those with more money, nah. I could pay cash for a Model Y if it met my needs and I wanted one, but I simply don't consider any car worth that much of my life.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 3:28 am

GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:06 pm
I've said before that if an AWD PHEV CUV with a smallish battery pack had been available in 2016 or 17, I would have gone for it despite my wanting to go full ZEV. But neither GM or anyone else built that car.
Mitsubishi did, the Outlander PHEV. It had been out since 2013 and the US got it in 2017.
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