WetEV wrote: ↑
Wed May 26, 2021 2:44 am
[....] Getting back to the future of PHEVs, will the current market for PHEVs persist? Answer isn't knowable with current data, as far as I can see.
As I've attempted to put forth previously (and I"m not sure if anyone responded on this point), in the here and now, the availability of and market for PHEVs is not just dependent on demand and the different factors that influence that demand (including cost of fuel, subjective intangibles, onboard real estate and interior volume, costs of maintenance, etc.) It is also impacted somewhat significantly, in my opinion, by supply
. Some of the automakers were trying to make PHEVs work, at least as a transitional tech, in part (I think) because it allows them to continue with some of their present model lines, and engine and transmission technologies. It may also add one or two generations (or more) of vehicles to the transition to low-carbon, and thus be a positive for them. There could be other factors such as if they can "spread" more kWh across more of the early generation vehicles rather than having to confine themselves to just making limited numbers of (relatively) long-range BEVs at first.
So, there is (or was) a significant incentive there. Note that I don't personally think that making PHEVs is, on balance, a great idea, even with the points mentioned above. I kind of admired GM on the isolated point that they paid some dues with the Volt, and in the end decided to leave it behind and go all-in on BEV. But I do think some case can be made, if what we're trying to do is develop opinions on a somewhat challenging topic with different pros and cons and, regardless of what we think is rational or economically wise, or even honors the substantial less-tangible elements that may be there in the final determining factors in the vehicle markets, in the end, the suppliers and the demanders (and the regulators) will do what they will do..... the final market numbers will (in my view) not always t always conform to the way we think it should work out, no matter how defensible-seeming is our logic.
The case that PHEVs will last longer, or even that ICV-PHEVs could stick around for decades, is in my view strengthened (to a limited extent) if we hypothesize the near-term introduction to the market of legitimate high-volume somewhat affordable zero-carbon fuels. There are some complications (such as the fact that an ICV then also competes with the ICV-PHEVs) but just noting this.
Too much volume in this thread for me to follow everything, but I do want to mention a couple of my major complaints against the Volt PHEV I had were:
a) cramped interior (real estate for two powertrain technologies can contribute to this issue)
b) retention of Rube Goldberg vibe from old ICV tech.
While some of this is addressed in more modern PHEVs (I'm sure there are excellent interior volume high power PHEVs coming to market), on balance they contribute to my skepticism. In the end, I don't know with confidence, but am leaning somewhat against PHEV long-lastingness.
I'm not sure what it is about paying increased attention to some of the comlexities of the supplier point of view that seems to elude some market analyses, but I do think that is the case. I think it's also been a factor as to why over the last 25+ year auto industry analysts have not more fully understood the factors at work, as to BEVs coming to market.
I'm not sure, why, but the point of view of the supplier seem to be downplayed or ignored sometimes in some EV market discussions.