rmay635703
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:51 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:21 pm
The above is one of the reasons I'm not in favor of large subsidies for PHEVs. We wanem to cost enough extra vs. ICEs that the relatively small
% of car buyers who think about TCO won't be able to conclude that they can come out ahead just because of the subsidies.
The above is really only true in Europe, in Wisconsin the first year title+ license can be an extra $450 compared to a normal car. (Depending on your county)

Considering my little Honda only burned $200 of gas last year anyone looking at TCO could easily conclude it’s not worth PHEV long term based on taxes alone (Which are slated to go even higher), add in The additional insurance Costs and it’s a deal breaker.

Though this is the same issue with a BEV, when your only driving 5000 miles a year it’s really not worth the extra taxes compared to the $27 a Versa would pay in annual gas tax.

I really don’t think we much have to worry about PHEVs taking over the universe when 45 of the 50 states have under 5000 of the PHEVs on the road
Last edited by rmay635703 on Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:16 pm

In my view, additional points to consider:

- Some of the established automakers have turned to PHEVs as a transitional tech in some of their high-dollar vehicles. I have seen this as them being willing to ease into some EV tech, but kind of hanging on to the past.

- As time passes, and battery tech improves, it's no longer a big deal for the EV only range on a PHEV to expand to 30, 40, 50+ miles. Maybe we'll even start seeing them with 100+ miles range (eg: what might be called an EREV, but whatever the acronym, it has both pluggability and EV only ability and another separate energy system). As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
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cwerdna
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:20 pm

jlsoaz wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:16 pm
As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
Off the top of my head, the only two PHEVs shipping in the US that come with DC FC inlet are the i3 REx and the Outlander PHEV. JDM Prius Prime has CHAdeMO but not the US version.

And, Mitsubishi in markets like Japan had been pushing Outlander PHEV as part of a V2H solution (viewtopic.php?f=12&t=29000&p=571131&hilit=dendo#p571131).

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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:31 pm

rmay635703 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:51 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:21 pm
The above is one of the reasons I'm not in favor of large subsidies for PHEVs. We wanem to cost enough extra vs. ICEs that the relatively small
% of car buyers who think about TCO won't be able to conclude that they can come out ahead just because of the subsidies.
The above is really only true in Europe, in Wisconsin the first year title+ license can be an extra $450 compared to a normal car. (Depending on your county)

Considering my little Honda only burned $200 of gas last year anyone looking at TCO could easily conclude it’s not worth PHEV long term based on taxes alone (Which are slated to go even higher), add in The additional insurance Costs and it’s a deal breaker. <Snip>

There are plenty of places in the U.S. too where the upfront cost of a PHEV version, including all subsidies, is less than the cost of an HEV version sans same. Not sure if there are any cases where that holds true yet for PHEV vs. ICE version of the same car.

Of course, as far as the fed. tax credit goes, many mass market buyers don't have enough tax liability to qualify for the full $7,500 in any case, so that's another incentive for them to buy a PHEV with a pack smaller than 16 kWh, or else lease if the dealer passes on the whole amount. Basing the credit on the pack size rather than the AER was a mistake, although without capacity warranties it did give companies some reason to oversize the pack and limit the SoC range, e.g. Volt.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:31 am

rmay635703 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:51 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:21 pm
.... in Wisconsin the first year title+ license can be an extra $450 compared to a normal car. (Depending on your county)

Considering my little Honda only burned $200 of gas last year anyone looking at TCO could easily conclude it’s not worth PHEV long term based on taxes alone (Which are slated to go even higher), add in The additional insurance Costs and it’s a deal breaker.

Though this is the same issue with a BEV, when your only driving 5000 miles a year it’s really not worth the extra taxes compared to the $27 a Versa would pay in annual gas tax.....
So are you saying the tabs are extra for a PHEV in WI, above it probably being a more expensive car? $450 extra is crazy, in MN I have the privilege of paying probably double the road tax an ICE driver pays, driving the mileage I do. True it's only a $70 surcharge but like you I figured out how much state gas tax I'd pay on something like a Versa and the $70 surcharge was double that! This is one of the reasons I'm thinking of a PHEV for my next vehicle as so far we don't have a PHEV surcharge, thats just for EVs.
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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:02 am

rmay635703 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:51 pm
The above is really only true in Europe
Not just wrong, way wrong
The US federal credit alone flips the PHEV to below hybrid pricing, and this does not yet include state tax credits and all the other perks that PHEV purchases receive.

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jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:20 pm
jlsoaz wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:16 pm
As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
Off the top of my head, the only two PHEVs shipping in the US that come with DC FC inlet are the i3 REx and the Outlander PHEV. JDM Prius Prime has CHAdeMO but not the US version.
ok, cool. At a quick look around, the Karma Revero also seems to have DCQC (I am just going by wikipedia, it seems hard to get the info on their page). I suppose there could be others, but the point is that as it becomes easier to include a decent-sized battery with a PHEV, perhaps DCQC will become more the norm, for some of them, especially if they are skewed toward BEV such as in the i3 REx.
cwerdna wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:20 pm

And, Mitsubishi in markets like Japan had been pushing Outlander PHEV as part of a V2H solution (viewtopic.php?f=12&t=29000&p=571131&hilit=dendo#p571131).
interesting, I wonder how that will work out.
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http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

cwerdna
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:00 pm

rmay635703 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:51 pm
I really don’t think we much have to worry about PHEVs taking over the universe when 45 of the 50 states have under 5000 of the things on the road
Which vehicle(s) are you talking about?

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cwerdna
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:44 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 pm
ok, cool. At a quick look around, the Karma Revero also seems to have DCQC (I am just going by wikipedia, it seems hard to get the info on their page).
TIL. Yes, it appears you can DC FC one. It doesn't have much AER per https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do ... 1&id=41978 though and it seems super expensive.

I didn't realize it was actually shipping. I've never seen one anywhere. And, the Fisker Karma that it was based upon wasn't particularly good for its time.

One wonders if these guys will fold or if they'll be able to survive due to Chinese sales.

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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:39 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 pm
the point is that as it becomes easier to include a decent-sized battery with a PHEV, perhaps DCQC will become more the norm, for some of them, especially if they are skewed toward BEV such as in the i3 REx.
Possible, but I really, really doubt it.
PHEVs exist for two reasons from the manufacturer side of things: inadequate battery supply, or expensive battery.

I get the impression that the ICE parts are about $4,000 (anybody know more details ?). If that is true and manufacturer marginal cost for battery is $100/kWh (if not now, then soon) that is 40 kWh extra battery or an ICE. An EV has so many advantages over a PHEV/ICE for the manufacturer and customer that I don't think this is really much of a question when price parity is reached. And of course the EV is riding the technology price curve down while the ICE part is being pushed up the regulatory price curve up. ICE R&D is a stranded asset.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
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2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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