GRA
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GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:33 pm

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... c-car-push

Kind of a "Well, duh", but the WSJ uggests 25% increase will be needed, àlthough it's unclear if that includes shifting off-peak hours for charging to reflect excess PV production before the afternoon/evening demand peak, and/or V2G.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:45 pm

Don't forget California has 30 years before the full effect is in play. That is 1% increase per year from today. (insert big yawn here)
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
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LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

GRA
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:37 pm

Of course, we'll also be switching a lot of heating and cooking to electric over that period, not to mention reducing electricity produced by NG and our last nuke (and our last out-of-state coal-fired electricity), and it remains to be seen how much electricity H2 production will take, so the required replacement rate is greater than you suggest, albeit doable.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:21 pm

Yes the 1% on top of the rest for everything else. There have been a few solar and battery deals going but it does seem like things need to accelerate at some point.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:25 pm

Indeed. NG currently makes up 47% of California's electricity, nuclear 9%, so that is 56% right there. Solar and wind are 14% and 7%, so that means we'll need a 267% increase in their output (assuming no increase in other renewables) just to replace NG/nuke current output, then say 25% on top of the total for EVs and an additional increment for any other uses we switch to electricity. Since RE has lower capacity factors than NG/nuke plants, the actual capacity increase has to be a several times multiple of the above.

As we've got the fourth-lowest usage per capita in the U.S. already thanks to the past 40+ years of energy-efficiency regulations, future major "capacity" gains from improved efficiency seem unlikely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_California
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:01 am

California needs massive grid upgrade for today, October 1st 2020 they're looking at rolling blackouts. Again.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

GRA
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:23 pm

Related to my previous post, via GCC:
U of Toronto study finds US electrification of LDV fleet not a silver bullet for tackling climate change in vehicle sector
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/1 ... anoff.html


Tried to post more but kept getting SQL errors.
Last edited by GRA on Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:01 pm

Electric vehicles are just going to allow the US to export more finished gasoline and diesel.
Anyone not capable of figuring this out on their own is ultimate proof that ignorance is bliss.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

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Nubo
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:53 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:01 pm
Electric vehicles are just going to allow the US to export more finished gasoline and diesel.
Anyone not capable of figuring this out on their own is ultimate proof that ignorance is bliss.
I agree in that the world is going to continue exploiting fossil fuels for energy as long as it is economically advantageous to do so. Poorer countries don't have the luxury of paying more for ecologically better alternatives.

The trick is to advance the alternatives so that they are clearly more economical.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

SageBrush
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Re: GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:30 pm

Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:53 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:01 pm
Electric vehicles are just going to allow the US to export more finished gasoline and diesel.
Anyone not capable of figuring this out on their own is ultimate proof that ignorance is bliss.
I agree in that the world is going to continue exploiting fossil fuels for energy as long as it is economically advantageous to do so. Poorer countries don't have the luxury of paying more for ecologically better alternatives.

The trick is to advance the alternatives so that they are clearly more economical.
That is one aspect; another one is that the poorer countries have limited resources to buy and consume fossil fuels.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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