GCR: Report: California will need massive grid upgrades for 2035 electric-car push

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Of course, we'll also be switching a lot of heating and cooking to electric over that period, not to mention reducing electricity produced by NG and our last nuke (and our last out-of-state coal-fired electricity), and it remains to be seen how much electricity H2 production will take, so the required replacement rate is greater than you suggest, albeit doable.
 
Yes the 1% on top of the rest for everything else. There have been a few solar and battery deals going but it does seem like things need to accelerate at some point.
 
Indeed. NG currently makes up 47% of California's electricity, nuclear 9%, so that is 56% right there. Solar and wind are 14% and 7%, so that means we'll need a 267% increase in their output (assuming no increase in other renewables) just to replace NG/nuke current output, then say 25% on top of the total for EVs and an additional increment for any other uses we switch to electricity. Since RE has lower capacity factors than NG/nuke plants, the actual capacity increase has to be a several times multiple of the above.

As we've got the fourth-lowest usage per capita in the U.S. already thanks to the past 40+ years of energy-efficiency regulations, future major "capacity" gains from improved efficiency seem unlikely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_California
 
California needs massive grid upgrade for today, October 1st 2020 they're looking at rolling blackouts. Again.
 
Electric vehicles are just going to allow the US to export more finished gasoline and diesel.
Anyone not capable of figuring this out on their own is ultimate proof that ignorance is bliss.
 
Oilpan4 said:
Electric vehicles are just going to allow the US to export more finished gasoline and diesel.
Anyone not capable of figuring this out on their own is ultimate proof that ignorance is bliss.

I agree in that the world is going to continue exploiting fossil fuels for energy as long as it is economically advantageous to do so. Poorer countries don't have the luxury of paying more for ecologically better alternatives.

The trick is to advance the alternatives so that they are clearly more economical.
 
Nubo said:
Oilpan4 said:
Electric vehicles are just going to allow the US to export more finished gasoline and diesel.
Anyone not capable of figuring this out on their own is ultimate proof that ignorance is bliss.

I agree in that the world is going to continue exploiting fossil fuels for energy as long as it is economically advantageous to do so. Poorer countries don't have the luxury of paying more for ecologically better alternatives.

The trick is to advance the alternatives so that they are clearly more economical.
That is one aspect; another one is that the poorer countries have limited resources to buy and consume fossil fuels.
 
The current model with regional power authority, utility, consumer is getting obsolete. The power from utility will be subscription based, constant power to user. User has local storage for peak. User can sell/buy from neighbours both from his stored and his utility allocation. Virtual power plant. 7 years ago I was working for a regional power authority. They know what is coming, but the utilities are fighting it because they will loose $. But the distributed grid will be more resilient, reduced and predictable transmission loads, more reliable and less likely to cause fires.
 
Oilpan4 said:
California needs massive grid upgrade for today, October 1st 2020 they're looking at rolling blackouts. Again.

In that particular example (possible rolling blackouts), it isn't so much that grid upgrades are necessary as much as it is new generation resources are needed. Fossil plants have been retiring and the State is short of generation resources. Diablo Canyon will be retired in a few short years and it is something like 2,200 or 2,300 MW all by itself...
 
I wouldn't exactly be declaring victory since the state already turned off power to tens of thousands of people this year.
They tried to hide it under the guise of "wild fire prevention" last year but no one's buying that anymore.
 
Randy said:
Oilpan4 said:
California needs massive grid upgrade for today, October 1st 2020 they're looking at rolling blackouts. Again.

In that particular example (possible rolling blackouts), it isn't so much that grid upgrades are necessary as much as it is new generation resources are needed. Fossil plants have been retiring and the State is short of generation resources. Diablo Canyon will be retired in a few short years and it is something like 2,200 or 2,300 MW all by itself...

Yes as part of "the upgrade" I would hope that includes adding some capacity.
 
Oilpan4 said:
I wouldn't exactly be declaring victory since the state already turned off power to tens of thousands of people this year.
They tried to hide it under the guise of "wild fire prevention" last year but no one's buying that anymore.
Still no on this conspiracy theory. Plenty of capacity. Curtailment during high fire risk is actually a real thing. Maybe you need to revisit the reason for bankruptcy.

The actual supply constrained power outages where caused by a natural gas power plant going off line in the middle of a heat wave resulting in near record demand. They have not repeated since. I actually give California credit for implementing the one hour rolling blackouts vs complete grid shut down that took days to restore a few years back in the north-east.
 
The last one I remember for the north east was about a year ago and it was because of a storm.
So it's just coincidence that that California turned off the power in 2019 to prevent wild fires for the first time ever, then 2020 they had to implement rolling blackouts due to having to actually pay the cost for political power generation stupidity.
Not buying it.
If 1 power plant going down causes that many people to lose power you have way bigger problems.
The problem with the truth is it likes to get out.
 
The problem with conspiracy theories is that they are easier to follow than the truth.
Don't let the boogie man get you.

You can keep an eye on the actual California grid right here:

http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

California’s electrical grid returned to near-normal operation over the weekend after demand briefly outpaced the supply of power Friday. The unexpected loss of a 470-megawatt power plant and about 1,000 megawatts of wind power amidst a heat wave prompted the California Independent System Operator to declare a Stage 3 Electrical emergency for the first time since 2001. It resulted in rotating outages that affected about 70,000 utility customers.

OC Register published August 16th.

Or just make stuff up.
 
Something is very wrong if one power plant going out cuts power to 70,000 customers.
 
GCC:
CAISO, CPUC, and CEC issue preliminary report on causes of August rotating outages in California

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/10/20201008-caiso.html


The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), and California Energy Commission (CEC) issued a Preliminary Root Cause Analysis of the August 2020 heat wave and rotating outages in California, finding that resource planning targets have not evolved to keep pace with extreme weather events, and that energy market practices did not perform as intended during stressed conditions.

The analysis also outlines short-term and longer-term actions to mitigate electricity shortages and ensure delivery of clean, reliable, and affordable energy. . . .

finds that there was no single root cause for the rotating outages on August 14 and 15. Instead, there are three broad categories of factors that contributed to the outages:

The extreme heat wave across the western US resulted in the demand for electricity exceeding the existing electricity resource planning targets. The existing resource planning processes are not designed to fully address a heat wave like the one experienced in mid-August.

In transitioning to a reliable, clean and affordable resource mix, resource planning targets have not kept pace to lead to sufficient resources that can be relied upon to meet demand in the early evening hours. This makes balancing demand and supply more challenging. These challenges were amplified by the heat.

Some practices in the day-ahead energy market exacerbated the supply challenges under highly stressed conditions.

The Preliminary Root Cause Analysis report identifies immediate measures to ensure reliable supplies for 2021 and beyond, including:

1. Update the resource and reliability planning targets to better account for heat waves and other extreme events like the ones encountered in both August and September; and a transitioning electricity resource mix to meet the clean energy goals of the state during critical hours of grid need.

2. Ensure that the generation and storage projects that are currently under construction in California are completed by their targeted online dates.

3. Expedite the regulatory and procurement processes to develop additional resources that can be online by 2021. This will most likely focus on resources such as demand response and flexibility. This can complement the resources that are already under construction.

4. Coordinate additional procurement by non-CPUC jurisdictional entities.

5. Enhance CAISO market practices to ensure they accurately reflect the actual balance of supply and demand during stressed operating conditions. . . .

There's a direct link to the report.
 
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