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GCC: Yergin: overwhelming # of new car sales will be EVs in coming decades, but 2/3 of fleet to remain gas ICEs in 2050

Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:31 pm

Yergin: overwhelming number of new car sales will be EVs in coming decades, but 2/3 of global fleet to remain gasoline-powered in 2050 ... ergin.html

Electric vehicles will make up as many as 8 out of 10 new cars sold in 2050, but it will still be a long road before they dislodge gasoline as the predominant fuel in transportation, IHS Markit Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin writes in his new book, The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations.

IHS Markit projects that electric vehicles (including battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric) will comprise 60-80% of all new car sales in 2050. That increased market share (from 2.2% of new car sales in 2020, according to IHS Markit data) will be driven by greater scale in manufacturing, as well as the continued improvement of batteries.

IHS Markit now projects that the average lithium-ion cell cost will fall below $100 per kilowatt hour by 2023.

Nevertheless, gasoline-powered vehicles will still comprise two-thirds of the 1.9 billion cars on the road in 2050 owing to the time it takes for the fleet to turn over. The average car in the United States remains on the road for almost 12 years. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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