klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:44 am

I just found the time to watch the whole cartoon. Its depressing, but flawed on the ultimate assessment of energy
available.
Solar power alone could power the whole US, if people would just prioritize. The same goes for nuclear fusion. Yes it always has been 20 years in the future, but only because nobody wanted to invest in it.
Here is an interesting article if you want to know why we dont have fusion power plants today:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/1 ... W620120413" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

To quote:

"The European Union has poured over 100 billion euros into technology research carried out by companies and academics over the last 25 years to try to keep up with U.S. and Asian innovation."

That are the EU (the worlds largest economy, mind you) expenditures on ALL technology. At today's rates that would about
130 billon dollars in 25(!!!!) years.
The US military budget is more than 4 times that in a single year!

So, if the space in the "bottles" for the cute little bacteria gets to small, we just need to re-prioritize where and how we spend our money. In addition to that, population growth will inevitably stop, as countries get richer. Exponential growth is just an unrealistic idealization of the observed data, from the bacteria and elsewhere it is know that growth more follows a logistic function which settles into a stable end state (at reasonable growth rates....it can turn chaotic at rates like 200-300 % but those are not common in nature).


So no there is no need to give up on globalization (which is good for everyone) and to fall back to medieval provincialism and an innovation-unfriendly, equally medieval, monetary system (proposed as a "solution" in that cartoon).

klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:11 am

CWO4Mann wrote:
Herm wrote:Its all doom, that is why I wont be bothered to get out of bed on Nov 6 to vote for Obama.. its of no use.
That's OK, on November 7th you will be roused from bed at a very early 3AM with banging on your door. Better sleep in striped pajamas that night so as not to freeze when you are herded onto the trains.
Can you explain that a bit more?
Are there mandatory train rides for non-voters?

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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:37 am

klapauzius wrote: In addition to that, population growth will inevitably stop, as countries get richer.
That's something I was wondering about too. I think as a country becomes more industrialized, the population stops growing. I heard somewhere that the US population would actually be shrinking if it weren't for all of the immigration.
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TickTock
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 12:46 pm

AndyH wrote:
TickTock wrote:
AndyH wrote:<snip>
Besides - reclaiming some of our self sufficiency does not mean we're magically transported back to 1469! Our parents/grandparents could grow their own food, make their own butter, and pump their own water before oil. Should we settle for being less intelligent or less capable than they were?
Nothing magic about it at all. In fact it's going to be down right ugly. When you carve out your compound, make sure you don't forget the razor wire and lots of ammunition.
Some have chosen to see the world that way. I don't agree. A total break-down is one possibility but it's certainly not the only possibility, and I've not yet seen anything that suggests it's even highly probable.

Though it wouldn't be the first time some portions of humanity have struggled to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 12:53 pm

Scary video, and I do wish it offered better solutions than "Buy local, ride a bike, learn to grow your own food, because the apocalypse is coming."

I hate to say it, but what is most likely to reduce the growth is a world war as has happened in the past. When costs skyrocket and fear and greed take over, aggression will occur followed by retaliation and destruction of life. The human population will be reduced and then slowly start to grow again.

Just a guess.
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klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 1:20 pm

JustinC wrote:Scary video, and I do wish it offered better solutions than "Buy local, ride a bike, learn to grow your own food, because the apocalypse is coming."

I hate to say it, but what is most likely to reduce the growth is a world war as has happened in the past. When costs skyrocket and fear and greed take over, aggression will occur followed by retaliation and destruction of life. The human population will be reduced and then slowly start to grow again.

Just a guess.
Sorry, but wars dont limit growth seriously...unless you are thinking about some apocalyptic style
all out nuclear war or all-women armies that go at each other.

As for the past world wars, they have not been growth-limiting at all (does "baby-boom" ring a bell?)

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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 1:25 pm

Re: Baby Boom. Yeah, that war worked out well for us. Not the other guys.

The other difference would be the lack of available resources when the wars are over, so growth could not explode if/when the soldiers come home.

But maybe you're right. War may just be a symptom of lack of resource population limitation.
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klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:42 pm

JustinC wrote:Re: Baby Boom. Yeah, that war worked out well for us. Not the other guys.

The other difference would be the lack of available resources when the wars are over, so growth could not explode if/when the soldiers come home.

But maybe you're right. War may just be a symptom of lack of resource population limitation.
Neither Germany's nor Japan's postwar population was seriously impacted...It was mostly men that died and so populations quickly recovered.
Anyway, with resource scarcity as a reason for the war, how long would it last? A week or maybe two?

Besides, I think mankind as a whole has somewhat gotten past this method as a serious problem solver.

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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:45 pm

If the world is ending why would I worry about having debts paid off?
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:52 pm

Smidge204 wrote:
AndyH wrote:Besides - reclaiming some of our self sufficiency does not mean we're magically transported back to 1469!
I agree, but you'd never know that listening to the "There's no tomorrow" video...

=Smidge=
Absolutely, Smidge. And to add insult to injury, the video doesn't even cover all the 'first order' problem areas, much less the other levels.

So - is anyone here interested in contributing to a 'pile of solutions'?
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