klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:18 am

rmay635703 wrote:
Also we definitely need population controls, because of our nature having the number of people on the planet that we do we are running in a massive energy deficit just to produce factory food, believe me, if we need to ACTUALLY DO THE RIGHT THING at some point and depend on crop rotations and mother nature like we did historically there will be a massive dieoff. just look at what happened in n korea after they couldn't produce enough synthetic petrochemical nitrogen fertalizer, then compare to what happened when a well prepared Cuba when they encountered the same issue. neither faired well, people did starve and go malnourished, Cuba did much better because they prepared but inevitably could not produce as much food using correct and proper methods of agriculture
Chances are good that the 9 billionth citizen of earth will be born about 60 years from now and that this will be the highest population number ever.
No controls needed, just educate women, increase overall economic well being, and populations start to drop.
The 1st world is not growing in population at all, the developing world is following hard on our heels...overall birthrates are way down.
Currently at ~ 2.5 births/woman (remember, 2.1 is the replacement rate, just to keep numbers not from dropping), down from 4.9 in the 1960s.

There will be no overpopulation catastrophe. The world can carry 9 billion people for a while and it will be constantly going down from there.

Japan is good example of how this goes. Its population peaked in 2010 at 128 million, and is now in decline.

AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:18 am

klapauzius wrote:Wow, and I thought contractors in Germany were among the most expensive....
This graph shows labor costs, right?
Yes it does, Klap. It's more than just hardware and labor costs though..

The work done in the Bundesrepublik triggered a US DoE project to reduce BOS and 'soft' costs for US installations. I'm not sure we're winning yet... ;)

http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2013/3301.html
http://www.rmi.org/simple
Non-hardware costs — also referred to as soft, balance of system, or business process costs — include permitting, inspection, interconnection, overhead, installation labor, customer acquisition, and financing. The report also highlights that certain processes often categorized as soft costs, such as permitting and interconnection, may not appear significant when measured in terms of dollars-per-watt, but are costly in that they pose significant market barriers which slow PV deployment.
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klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:35 am

AndyH wrote: The work done in the Bundesrepublik triggered a US DoE project to reduce BOS and 'soft' costs for US installations. I'm not sure we're winning yet... ;)

http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2013/3301.html
http://www.rmi.org/simple
Non-hardware costs — also referred to as soft, balance of system, or business process costs — include permitting, inspection, interconnection, overhead, installation labor, customer acquisition, and financing. The report also highlights that certain processes often categorized as soft costs, such as permitting and interconnection, may not appear significant when measured in terms of dollars-per-watt, but are costly in that they pose significant market barriers which slow PV deployment.
Bummer...at $180/kW installation etc. I would fill up the rest of my roof with panels...I could easily get another 2-3 kW up in addition to the 4 kW already there. I think panels can be bought quite cheap these days. In effect, so cheap, at these costs it would even be longterm financially sound to put them up here in Seattle.


That would almost make us net independent.
I think there is a bit more to it though...last time I asked for a quote in 2012, adding another 2kW would have cost me ~ 12k, so more like $6000/kW, with about half of that NOT coming from panels.

BTW, I am no fan of McMansions, but i generally think, IF you make your home energy neutral, it does not matter what size it has...

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Nubo
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:19 pm

rmay635703 wrote:Why worry about pipe dreams, thorium salt reactors are proven 1950's technology and make 90-99% less waste than a uranium reactor, cost about the same but use less fuel, cannot support a sustained melt down and do not make plutonium in any significant portion.

Read superfuel, there are 1000's of years worth of thorium in sands throughout the US.
Somehow, every time I see someone promoting Thorium reactors, they always speak of them as if they are already an obvious and established technology.

While promising, we should at least acknowledge the technology is still in the research and/or preparatory stages. "proven 1950's technology" obviously depends on context. Proven in terms that matter - a track record of operation at commercial scale - has not yet been established.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Fri Mar 07, 2014 1:17 pm

klapauzius wrote: BTW, I am no fan of McMansions, but i generally think, IF you make your home energy neutral, it does not matter what size it has...
Just a quick comment on this if I may.

This is a perfectly valid point of view - please don't take any part of our conversation as an attempt to suggest that everyone on the planet 'should' be living in a mud hut.

From a net-zero perspective, absolutely - if one has the income to build a Highlands castle and then add enough generation to take it off grid, then more..er..power to them. ;)

From a carbon zero standpoint, however, a family interested in going well beyond just net zero might make different choices. Some are building in cob or rammed earth or strawbales or other local/indigenous materials. Others are choosing 'tiny houses'. Others are opting for ecovillages and shared infrastructure.

My personal explorations have been in the carbon zero direction (can I get to carbon negative?), and in working to expand the 'commonly assumed' range of options so that should someone read this in future they'll know that it's OK if they think that there must be more than net zero or LEED platinum.
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:40 pm

PassivHaus processes being deployed in commercial buildings:



-> 0.5-3.0% upfront (3% in this article, 0.5 for hot-weather residential)
-> 10-15% annual return on investment
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:38 pm

Passive house construction completely destroys Energy Star, LEED, or other so-called energy efficient build processes.

Here's a look at a home in Oregon - first from the viewpoint of the home owners, and then a YouTube playlist that shows the construction process. Contractor was Hammer&Hand from Seattle and Portland. http://hammerandhand.com/

PassivHaus construction requires that architects and crews pay significant attention to detail - especially with thermal bridges and air infiltration. The overview from the heating/ventilation contractor shows how much smaller heating and AC requirements become, and the info from the home owners testifies to the comfort. This type of construction results in a building that uses only 10-15% of the annual energy for heating or cooling as a conventional house in the same location.

Homeowner impression:



Mechanical Room - heating/cooling/ventilation



YouTube page
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... 73XaT-r0Ai

Playlist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTKUSpk ... 73XaT-r0Ai
Last edited by AndyH on Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:38 pm

Another view - Ten-star energy efficiency in Australia
- Zero stars means the building shell does practically nothing to reduce the discomfort of hot or cold weather.
- A 5 star rating indicates good, but not outstanding, thermal performance.
- Occupants of a 10 star home are unlikely to need any artificial cooling or heating.
http://www.nathers.gov.au/eer/index.php
Houses built in 1990 averaged about 1 star on the NatHERS scale. Before the introduction of national energy efficiency regulations for houses in 2003, less than one per cent of Australian houses achieved 5 stars.

Many well designed houses are now being built above 6 stars or more, and examples are available on the Your Home website at: http://www.yourhome.gov.au
Introducing Josh's House, a project and video series following the design and construction of two 10 star energy efficient family homes in the Fremantle suburb of Hilton, Western Australia with Josh Byrne environmental scientist & presenter on ABC TV's Gardening Australia, his young family and sister in law.
This house is being built by conventional contractors and tradesmen, in the same time frame, and for the same cost as conventional building.
http://joshshouse.com.au/

The house has a 3kW PV system and in the first six months of occupancy (4-person young family) it generated twice the electricity needed to run the house. :shock:

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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:46 pm

Another Solution - John Jeavon's Grow Biointensive project. What if we could rebuild the soil, not deplete it, while growing food? What if we could grow our food using much less water, no chemical/petroleum inputs, with much less energy (all renewable and efficient), and on much less land than conventional agriculture does today? What if we could do this with openly-pollinated seed?

This process is born from French Intensive gardening and biodynamic farming and an evolution of Alan Chadwick's Biodynamic French Intensive system. Jeavon's work began on a research farm in Palo Alto, CA, in 1972 before moving to their permanent home in Willits, CA in 1980. It's being used around the world and has support from peer-reviewed science behind it. It uses the best available practices that include intensive planting to create growth-supporting microclimates, growing plants for both food and compost, integrated pest management, and companion planting.
When properly used, the techniques included in GROW BIOINTENSIVE sustainable mini-farming can build the soil up to 60 times faster than in nature, while making possible per unit of production:

67 to 88% reduction in water consumption
50% reduction in the amount of purchased fertilizer required
94% to 99% reduction in the amount of energy used
100% increase in soil fertility, with an increases in yield
200% to 400% increase in caloric production per unit of area, and a
100% increase in income per unit of area.
http://www.growbiointensive.org/
http://www.growbiointensive.org/Self_Teaching.html

http://blogs.worldwatch.org/nourishingt ... n-jeavons/

http://www.cefs.ncsu.edu/whatwedo/energ ... ensive.pdf





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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:02 pm

AndyH wrote:Best background info I've yet seen in one place - Dr. Chris Martenson's "Crash Course" is three years old now, but seems on the mark. This video gives an overview of energy and availability. Oil is not the only resource that's peaking - take a look at copper, coal, and uranium. This - more than anything else we have on this forum - shows exactly why we'd be wise to be planting wind turbines and solar panels as quickly as we can.



The entire program is available in this Youtube playlist:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7E8A774DA8435EEB

And at the main website:
http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse
The Crash Course, originally released in 2008, has been updated for 2014.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse

This is highly, highly recommended - it's still the single best 'big picture' overview I've yet found.

Here's a quick summary that discusses the 2008 Crash Course and the 2014 updates:

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