AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:52 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:If the world is ending why would I worry about having debts paid off?
Welcome LTLFT, er, Herm 2.0!
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:59 pm

AndyH wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:If the world is ending why would I worry about having debts paid off?
Welcome LTLFT, er, Herm 2.0!
I haven't studied that body of work to know if that's a compliment or an insult, so I'll just say "thank you" :D
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:09 pm

smkettner wrote:The great equalizer will be cost. Slowly the economics will decide the solutions.
Will it be as slow as in 70s oil crisis, like in IT bubble of 2001 or recent housing bubble?

Can you imagine US military paying $100/gallon to power jets/ships/tanks? What our taxes will look like in that case? I think at some point someone will attempt to regulate carbon resources like they regulate uranium, so only limited number of players can affect limited market...
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:12 pm

klapauzius wrote:I just found the time to watch the whole cartoon. Its depressing, but flawed on the ultimate assessment of energy
available. ...

So, if the space in the "bottles" for the cute little bacteria gets to small, we just need to re-prioritize where and how we spend our money. In addition to that, population growth will inevitably stop, as countries get richer. Exponential growth is just an unrealistic idealization of the observed data, from the bacteria and elsewhere it is know that growth more follows a logistic function which settles into a stable end state (at reasonable growth rates....it can turn chaotic at rates like 200-300 % but those are not common in nature).


So no there is no need to give up on globalization (which is good for everyone) and to fall back to medieval provincialism and an innovation-unfriendly, equally medieval, monetary system (proposed as a "solution" in that cartoon).
Globalization only works in an age of cheap energy. Look at one of China's millionaires - She started recovering recyclable paper from LA landfills and built it into a business that buys waste paper from the US, ships it to China to make cardboard, and returns it to the US around all the junk we buy and trash. [2]

The bacteria in bottles isn't about money - it's about population, and also about our demand on the planet, and our waste products, and ... Sorry, it's not simple, and it's much more exponential than logistic. It's my understanding that boom/bust is the predominant model in the natural world - if you've got something that shows logistic growth in the 'real world' I'd love to see it.

Barter and local currency is happening all over the world as we speak - including in a number of places in the US - and it's working well!

I just finished digging through population growth rates, literacy, infant mortality, etc. for a school project and while it's true that a couple of the highly developed countries have gone to negative growth rates, they're in the very tiny minority and significantly offset by even our 0.899% growth rate[1].

In the US alone, with a less than 1% annual growth rate, we're adding 1,660,254 people this year - 4,549 each day. Cutting their allowance is not going to allow us to squeeze more people on the planet.

[1] 2012 Estimate, CIA World Fact Book https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... os/us.html

edit
[2] http://www.npr.org/2012/04/26/150735732 ... -the-earth
Last edited by AndyH on Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:14 pm

UkrainianKozak wrote:
smkettner wrote:The great equalizer will be cost. Slowly the economics will decide the solutions.
Will it be as slow as in 70s oil crisis, like in IT bubble of 2001 or recent housing bubble?

Can you imagine US military paying $100/gallon to power jets/ships/tanks? What our taxes will look like in that case? I think at some point someone will attempt to regulate carbon resources like they regulate uranium, so only limited number of players can affect limited market...
$100 a gallon for JP8 would be a bargain in some places! We're paying about $400 a gallon for the fuel used in Afghanistan! (in 2009 $$$)
One U.S. Army official has said the "fully burdened" cost of transporting fuel into remote areas can be as high as $1,000 per gallon.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... ghanistan-
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statemen ... hanistan-/
Last edited by AndyH on Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:15 pm

dgpcolorado wrote: Among the claims of proponents: fusion won't produce radioactive waste like fission power. Nope, the intense radiation of the fusion reaction will make containment vessels and other process components radioactive.
Yes, but it is much better then to have a contaminated process components then to have radioactive waste from the reaction on top of it.
You can reuse contaminated components and materials in many cases, you can't say so about radioactive waste from current nuclear plants.
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:17 pm

Well, I'm talking about supply point, not destination charge ;)
I think I know what I'm trying to say.
AndyH wrote:
UkrainianKozak wrote:
smkettner wrote:The great equalizer will be cost. Slowly the economics will decide the solutions.
Will it be as slow as in 70s oil crisis, like in IT bubble of 2001 or recent housing bubble?

Can you imagine US military paying $100/gallon to power jets/ships/tanks? What our taxes will look like in that case? I think at some point someone will attempt to regulate carbon resources like they regulate uranium, so only limited number of players can affect limited market...
$100 a gallon for JP8 would be a bargain in some places! We're paying about $400 a gallon for the fuel used in Afghanistan!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... ghanistan-
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:18 pm

Guys, before we get into a fusion tangent, let's remember that we can solve ALL of our current problems - everything listed in the video, for example, with ZERO NEW TECH. Everything we need is on the planet right now - all we have to do is pull it out of the box (ok, some we'll have to make and box more of first ;)) and then put the tools to work.
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:29 pm

AndyH wrote:The bacteria in bottles isn't about money - it's about population, and also about our demand on the planet, and our waste products, and ... Sorry, it's not simple, and it's much more exponential than logistic. It's my understanding that boom/bust is the predominant model in the natural world - if you've got something that shows logistic growth in the 'real world' I'd love to see it.
Bacteria in a bottle may not be a good example. The only contraint is the size of the bottle and is unrealistic. Bacteria still must have other resources to multiply. If the bottle has enough resources to fill half with bacteria that will be the end of it. Many will fight and starve for resources. Others may die from the waste products.
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow

Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:44 pm

smkettner wrote:
AndyH wrote:The bacteria in bottles isn't about money - it's about population, and also about our demand on the planet, and our waste products, and ... Sorry, it's not simple, and it's much more exponential than logistic. It's my understanding that boom/bust is the predominant model in the natural world - if you've got something that shows logistic growth in the 'real world' I'd love to see it.
Bacteria in a bottle may not be a good example. The only contraint is the size of the bottle and is unrealistic. Bacteria still must have other resources to multiply. If the bottle has enough resources to fill half with bacteria that will be the end of it. Many will fight and starve for resources. Others may die from the waste products.
Sure - the bottle is a tool to demonstrate exponential growth so yes, food and waste is a consideration.

But please consider these bits: 1. the current human growth rate is essentially geometric, and 2. right now, we are consuming and polluting as if we have between 1.4 and 1.7 Earths.

Are we slowing down? No - to get out of our global recession, everyone's scrambling to increase growth.
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