Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow
Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 7:48 pm
I think here lies your misconception of an exponential curve...You can express any real valued time series in terms of an instantaneous rate, that does not make it exponential. Note that the logistic function, y=1/(1+exp(-t)) can look like an e-function for some time.AndyH wrote:The growth is clearly exponential, though as you point out the RATE is changing. It's not the growth RATE that's eating all the potatoes - it's the 2.4 new people on the planet EACH SECOND that want to eat.
Exactly, so how much value would you attribute to such a number? Would you start digging a bunker and hoarding ammunition based on such predictions???AndyH wrote: It's all of them...or none.
AndyH wrote: Did you catch the part that we're already over 1.4 Earth's TODAY? We don't have time to sit back and wait for sub-Saharan Africa to reach Western European economic levels! (With or without a 'war' on women and/or contraception!)
Yes, but again, that is a >> rate <<. Such levels will have to come down OR we will increase the "capacity" of our planet,
as we have done time and time again in the past. I said it somewhere else already, but by the capabilities and standards of e.g. the Roman Empire, we would already have exceeded the earths "capacity" by a 100 times and more. Yet we are still here, all 7 billion of us.
Sub-Saharan Africa will reach western European economic levels ( I hope) eventually, or indeed population limits will take effect through famine, disease and war, not unknown in these regions. But I am hopeful. Give them a few more decades and they will come around too. Keep in mind Africa is less than 1 billion people, so their impact will not be severe anyway. So there is plenty of time for them to develop.
But look at Asia, which makes up the bulk of humanity, and the numbers there look rather encouraging.